[size=38]The World Bank calls for structural reforms in the Iraqi economy and warns of its decline[/size]
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July 31, 2023[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Baghdad / Obelisk Al-Hadath: The World Bank expressed its fears about the decline of the Iraqi economy, which is dependent on oil exports, while warning of the decline in the Iraqi cash reserves.
And the World Bank website published a report in which it stated that the Iraqi economy continues to recover, driven by the oil boom, after the severe recession caused by the Corona pandemic in 2020, while the non-oil sectors are still suffering from recession, and growth obstacles have reappeared, despite the fact that revenues have been achieved. Unexpected record oil prices, and the long-awaited approval of the new fiscal budget, Iraq is still liable to miss an opportunity to move forward with urgent and long-awaited reforms, which are critical to boosting private sector growth and creating millions of jobs needed over the next ten years.
The World Bank website pointed to the spring and summer 2023 edition of the Iraq Economic Monitor report under the title “Pressures Reappear: Recovery in Iraq is at stake,” noting that real GDP growth has increased at an accelerated rate to 7% in 2022, driven by the boom in the oil sector. , but it decreased to 2.6% on an annual basis in the first quarter of 2023. As for the consumer price inflation rate, which was at average levels in 2022, it increased in early 2023, due to the depreciation of the Iraqi dinar in the parallel market. Favorable oil market dynamics in the first nine months of 2022 pushed total reserves, excluding gold, to a record high of $89 billion, however, this trend slowed in early 2023.
The report concludes that unless structural reforms are undertaken, Iraq's oil-based development model will suffer greatly. Overall GDP is expected to contract by 1.1% in 2023 driven by an expected contraction of 4.4% in oil GDP based on the OPEC+ production quotas agreed for this year. The lack of willingness to undertake reforms, even in light of the decline in oil prices, will not help reduce the control of the public sector over the Iraqi economy, and increase the potential for non-oil growth and job creation, all of which would limit the prospects for economic growth in the long term.
Jean-Christophe Carré, Regional Director of the Middle East Department at the World Bank, said: Iraq is witnessing a strong recovery after many years of turmoil... However, it cannot continue to rely on unexpected oil revenues only for recovery in the short term... in the absence of a high political commitment to adopt And the implementation of the necessary reforms that Iraq called for a long time ago will face the risks of depleting its reserves at an accelerated pace, and returning to square one in a very short time.. It is necessary to take urgent measures to accelerate the move towards diversifying economic activity, addressing the existing factors that increase economic vulnerability, and addressing the challenges climate-related urgency to secure the long-term well-being of the Iraqi people.
The special chapter of the report entitled “Financial Intermediation in Iraq” deals with the Iraqi financial sector, and concludes that the lack of capital of the dominant state-owned banks, and the weakness of the private commercial banking sector, are two of the obstacles to achieving diversification of economic activity. The report stresses the importance of reforming the banking sector and promoting digital financial services in order to increase financial intermediation activities and enhance financial inclusion. These recommendations aim to turn the financial sector into a catalyst for the diversification of the economy.
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