American Foreign Policy: Washington must set red lines for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan

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[size=52]American Foreign Policy: Washington must set red lines for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan[/size]

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A report by the well-known American magazine “Foreign Policy FP,” entitled “Iran is exploiting divisions and American inaction in Kurdistan,” said that “the Kurdistan Regional Government is considered important to the interests of the United States in many ways, and the Peshmerga forces are a major partner in the fight against ISIS and other extremist groups.” It also plays a crucial role in the West’s counter-terrorism efforts in both Iraq and Syria.”[/size]
[size=45]The magazine’s report added: “Historically, the region (Kurdistan Region) has formed a buffer zone against unrest in the rest of Iraq, providing a safe haven for nearly a million internally displaced people and refugees.”[/size]
[size=45]He added, “As Washington is preoccupied with its growing competition with China and the war in Ukraine, and with the sense that America is focusing elsewhere,” the Kurdistan Regional Government’s competitors, including militias that the United States classifies as terrorists, have begun to move, considering that the collapse of Kurdistan would lead to... "It will lead to unrest and chaos with effects extending far beyond Iraq."[/size]
[size=45]The report continued, “The Kurdistan Regional Government has faced a series of problems in recent years. Shortly after Masrour Barzani assumed his position as President of the Kurdistan Regional Government in 2019, his government faced an epidemic (Corona), a military escalation between the United States and Iran, and an economic crisis after it received... “Oil revenues take a big hit when crude oil prices fall in 2020.”[/size]
[size=45]Pointing out, “The differences within the Kurdish House led to the weakening of the negotiating ability of the Kurds in Baghdad during the negotiations on forming an Iraqi government after the parliamentary elections in 2021, and Iran exploited the Kurdish dispute through an alliance with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan to expand its influence over the Iraqi state.”[/size]
[size=45]The American magazine emphasized, “The Kurdistan Democratic Party owes a great deal of its strength to its long-term organizational discipline, which gave it electoral and popular success.” He has been allowed to hold the position of Prime Minister since 2012, while the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan has been divided into factions since its inception, and in 2021, Bafel Talabani staged a coup to oust his cousin Lahore Sheikh Janki from the position of co-chair of the party.”[/size]
[size=45]The report also stated, “These violent dynamics have weakened the ability of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan to provide an alternative to the Kurdistan Democratic Party.” Instead, it has chosen sabotage tactics, working with Iranian-aligned groups in Baghdad to undermine its rival politically and economically. The leadership of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan regularly works with individuals and entities allied with Iran that are sanctioned by the US Treasury Department, sometimes against the backdrop of missile and drone attacks. Attacked on Kurdistan by these groups.”[/size]
[size=45]The report went on to say, “This raises serious questions for Washington and its relationship with the (Kurdistan National Party), which is allied with Iran and Baghdad in the belief that it helps it reassert itself locally, but undermining Kurdistan as a whole to weaken the Kurdistan Democratic Party is dangerously shortsighted, and it is likely that It is existential because it risks gambling with the Kurdistan Region in the long term.”[/size]
[size=45]The report notes that “Kurdish internal problems and Iranian attacks on the Kurdistan Region have far-reaching effects on American interests, as the Kurdistan Regional Government is considered a vital ally in the campaign aimed at ensuring the permanent defeat of ISIS, divisions among the Kurds, Iran’s attempts to subjugate the Iraqi state, and economic turmoil.” In the Kurdistan Region, all of them are factors that undermine the US campaign against the organization and empower Iranian-backed armed groups that Washington classifies as terrorists.”[/size]
[size=45]He added, “The American base in Erbil Governorate is one of the most important military bases for Washington in the Middle East, as it serves as a center for special operations and a launching site for operations in both Iraq and Syria.”[/size]
[size=45]Adding, “The mere existence of this base requires a political system that is conducive to maintaining the partnership between the United States and the Kurdistan Regional Government, something that Iran hopes to weaken and, ultimately, demolish by exploiting the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.” “Iran has demonstrated its willingness to play the long game to replace the United States in Kurdistan, as it has done in Baghdad over the past two decades.”[/size]
[size=45]The report stresses, “Washington must intervene to pressure the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Party to end its collusion with Tehran, as the party and its leadership risk violating US sanctions designed to prevent the capabilities of groups and officials allied with Iran.”[/size]
[size=45]He also points out that “Washington must set red lines for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, in order to contain Iranian attacks and to protect the credibility of the sanctions imposed on Iran.” Washington must also discourage the Kurdistan National Party from threatening to return Kurdistan to the dual administration that prevailed in the 1990s, which would effectively lead to the dissolution of the Kurdistan Region and its hard-earned rights under the 2005 Iraqi Constitution.[/size]
[size=45]The report notes, “It is also possible to involve regional actors such as Turkey.” Ankara has escalated its attacks with drones on Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militants, who are present in Sulaymaniyah, the stronghold of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Party. This destabilized the province and added to the party’s problems.”[/size]
[size=45]He added, “The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan cannot force the Kurdistan Workers’ Party to withdraw, because this would lead to a violent conflict, but it also cannot withstand more Turkish attacks.” However, he (the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) can make a deal with Ankara on the basis of a commitment to end its collusion with the Popular Mobilization Forces, which includes within its ranks branches affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. This would ensure that the PUK does not directly or indirectly empower the PKK. “It reduces Iran’s influence, alleviates Turkish concerns, and reduces geopolitical tensions resulting from Turkish incursions.”[/size]
[size=45]The report notes, “Moreover, Washington failed to resist or condemn Baghdad’s punitive measures against the KRG’s economy, which were designed by groups allied with Iran by subjugating Baghdad’s judiciary.” The suspension of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region also prevented 500,000 barrels per day of Kurdish oil from reaching global markets: about 10% of Iraq’s total exports, or 0.5% of global production.[/size]
[size=45]He explained, “This matter has repercussions that go beyond the borders of the region, as Europe has increasingly relied on Kurdish oil since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”[/size]
[size=45]The report goes on to say, “The United States has so far been a bystander to both the escalation between the Kurds and the Iranian aggression. Washington may believe that these problems are internal Kurdish affairs, but this is wrong. The rise of the Popular Mobilization Forces, and thus their ability to exploit the Kurdish discord, can be directly linked to the legacy of American engagement in Iraq over the past two decades, including Washington’s acquiescence in these forces’ takeover of Kirkuk in 2017.”[/size]
[size=45]The report confirms, “The Kurdistan Regional Government has proven its ability to withstand, but this has its limits.” The complete collapse of the region's economy would eventually force it to surrender to Iran. In practical terms, this means giving Iran a greater role in determining the contours of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s institutions, its armed forces, its borders, and, most importantly, the future of the American base in Erbil.”[/size]
[size=45]The report explains, “Preventing this will require the United States to mediate tensions between the Kurds to unify the Kurdish ranks in Baghdad to protect the autonomy of the Kurdistan Regional Government and restore its budget entitlements and its right to compete electorally over disputed areas such as Kirkuk without being subjected to the coercive tactics of the Popular Mobilization Forces.” “While maintaining healthy democratic competition at home.”[/size]
[size=45]He added, “If Washington is serious about protecting its interests, it can start by convincing the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Party that its best hope of reversing its decline is by addressing its internal crisis, and not by turning to Iran - a self-destructive practice.” His collusion with Iran is a gamble with the fate of the party and Sulaymaniyah alike.”[/size]
[size=45]The report goes on to note, “The United States could focus its mediation on gas reserves in Kurdistan, which could address the global shortage in the long term while supporting the KRG economy, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party has the political and constitutional legitimacy to move the sector forward and attract investors.” But gas reserves are located primarily in areas controlled by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.”[/size]
[size=45]He also notes that “the United States can encourage dialogue on the development of these gas fields and secure Kurdistan’s status in what the International Energy Agency described as the “golden age” of natural gas.”[/size]
[size=45]The Foreign Policy report goes on to say, “By continuing on its current path, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan risks separating the 700,000 population of Sulaymaniyah from the economic transformation led by Masrour Barzani, which will only lead to increased frustration among supporters of the Patriotic Kurdistan Party.” The reform agenda could save Kurdistan from oil dependence by diversifying the economy, improving efficiency, and promoting good governance.”[/size]
[size=45]He concludes, “The alternative for the United States - to stand by and watch the collapse of the Kurdistan Regional Government - would be a disaster for the Kurds of Iraq and for the interests of the United States in the region.” “The fate of the Kurdistan Regional Government will play an important role in shaping the broader Middle East.[/size]
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