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05/20/2020 01:22:11
Al-Kazimi in front of the path of thorns and inflamed files .. How will he deal with the five bumps?
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05/20/2020 01:22:11
Shafaq News / Granting confidence from parliament to the new Iraqi government , after months of delay and stumbling, places Mustafa Al-Kazemi immediately before the hell of major challenges , at a critical moment in the history of Iraq and the region, or as optimists say , in front of the last opportunity , to get out of the scene of the current economic deterioration , Politically and securityly .
It meets many of the factors to make the Neil government confidence this time, greater than just a step to vote parliamentary, as reflected immediately in front of Kazemi, and his ministers in the government 's new, hopes and opportunities and crises, not they can only get down them immediately, especially with boiling who experienced street Iraq since months Long .
The declaration of Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi, then Adnan Zurfi Aatmaarhama for the formation of the government after the resignation of the government of Abdul Mahdi , since more than five months, and then assign Mustafa Kazmi, all indicators on the worsening of the complexity of the scene of political Iraq, a state needs Kazmi to deal with it with great care to avoid their mines numerous, And its dangers on The future of his government, and more importantly on how dealing with files hot, the situation of economic and fire anger popular, to the challenges of security, and the relationship with the province of Kurdistan leading to the dismantling of a contract relationship with the Americans .
The economic challenge
Perhaps the file economic - standard of living is the most pressing for a pan - Iraqi, especially that Iraq is rich in natural resources of oil, but a slice large of citizens do not feel the returns of this wealth . According to figures available from the Ministry of Planning, the rate of poverty was in the year 2018 up to 20 in percent .With the deterioration of the economic conditions during the past two years, the proportion is likely to have increased sharply . The survey which is conducted by the ministry showed that the rate of poverty in some provinces was higher than that much . Valmtny , for example , recorded 52 in percent, and Diwaniya , 48 in percent, and Maysan 45 in percent .
Will be on Kazmi that checks in these figures, and others, often at the moment the first of the day permanency first in his office at the headquarters of the Presidency of the Government . Do not expect the Iraqis it is less than that never . He realizes just that demand the world on oil decline in the month of April alone , 30 in percent .Will not be easy to state such as Iraq, it relies more than 90 in percent of its resources on oil, to go out of the neck of the bottle to face the danger imminent on the resources of livelihood of the country .
Becomes this file more hotter because Iraq, and despite its resources of oil large, languishing under the weight of the debt of foreign heavy, believed it , according to the governor of the bank 's central amounting to 23 billion dollars, while the amount of debt internal about 40 trillion dinars Iraqis . He says the governor of the bank said it does not include 40 billion dollars representing Debts outstanding for the period of the prior year 2003.
It will be on Kazmi poring immediately to study these files and prepare plans to deal with them with the collapse of the revenues of oil and faltering government for paying salaries in the light of estimates at the time the same from the Fund Monetary International shrinking economy of Iraq by 4.7 in percent .
If Iraq before the situation is catastrophic and comes and B Corona to increase the risks that lie in front of Kazmi because it disrupted the wheel economy largely large make the prospects explosion of anger popular more likely, what did not start the Iraqis to see the effects of the reforms that promised them, and steps bold anti - corruption rampant .
To imagine the scene more clearly, we have to remember that the budget of the last developed on the basis of that oil constitutes 90 in percent of its revenues and on the basis of the price of a barrel 56 dollars , while the range is now up to the 30 dollars only .
And it will not be able to any government to address this challenge economic than without fighting the battle of internal large to confront the policies of quotas , nepotism and sharing the spoils prevailing during decades past, which says experts it has made the sector the public inflates to the extent that it absorbs about 50 billion dollars annually for the salaries and compensation, which is what constitutes The largest proportion of the size of the general budget .
The witness Iraq debate regards deduction of salaries is concentrated on the Sitalh and any proportion . And deduct salaries would apply for larger ministers and senior officials of government . According to sources of Shafaq News
Perhaps it is a message influential in the circles of Iraqis , especially young people of them who languish under the weight of rates of unemployment , large . But the initiative like this alone will not be enough to probably . You need government Kazmi to declare a plan of emergency economic rescue, and in order to achieve this need also to cover parliamentary enough And the support of the opinion the public angry of the bad conditions .
The security challenge
Feel the Iraqis in general the burden of the challenges of security that they face since years, they are of paying the price of their lives and the lives of their children . That 's the question that must be asked to Kazmi what if it was aware of exactly the size of these sacrifices and burdens on citizens, and what is going to do with the order to address this.
But the problem lies in the file security spiky degree not can have it settled in isolation from the elements of the game internal and regional . It is without overkill in pessimism, the Kazmi needs a miracle without a doubt, at the time of zero , in which miracles .
The imposition of the organization " Daesh " terrorist his agenda on the atmosphere of political in Baghdad ahead of the meeting of the granting of confidence after doubled its attacks in the days of the final despite declaration of Prime Minister former Haider Abadi , the victory of Iraq on Daesh at the end of the year 2017.
It is clear that Daesh exploits a group of elements that allowed him to pick up its ranks and re - activate the cells of the order to murder and intimidation of including virus Corona and re - positioning of military US, and differences internal between the factions , which dissipated the efforts of " the crowd popular " , and vacuum security based in areas disputed by Between Baghdad and Kurdistan, the continuing disorganized situation in eastern Syria, and the escalation of tension between the Americans and the crowd factions .
However , the van Kazmi is forced to give these files the importance of the utmost, because the negligence of any of them, would bring only more of the deterioration in the lives of Iraqis, has directed a blow fatal to his government, and the best conditions Sahalha for work .
If need Kazmi to engage the strengthening of the army and organs of security and supplying them with what you need to finance , develop and activate, the task will not be easy in light of faltering resources and financial status currently . But he will be able, at the very least , to activate coordination and cooperation with Kurdistan, and to benefit from ad hoc external support programs For the security sector , revitalizing border control with Syria, and reaching a formula of political compromise that addresses the problems of the popular crowd in a manner consistent with the interests of the state in line with the main political forces .
On another side of the security cleavage , Al-Kazemi needs to give street protests top importance in order to best address them . Perhaps the bad luck Kazmi he takes the post of the presidency of the government on the doors of the summer , which usually is accompanied by interruptions in the services of electricity and water , which is the will increase the unity of the movement of protests .
Relationship with Washington
Of scheduled that kicks off " dialogue strategic " between Baghdad and Washington in June next, to affects all issues contentious between the parties, including the so nature and the future of the presence of military US, especially after the voice of parliament , the Iraqi official to demand the withdrawal of troops US .
Washington will be represented by Assistant Secretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale, the number three in the US State Department . Did not know is officially what if he Kazmi will participate personally in the sessions of the dialogue, as it would have received just mountains of files to start addressing them . But he understands perfectly that there is a lot that must be repaired In the relationship with the Americans, as also described by the magazine " Foreign Policy " US as " a partnership flawed " from the point of considering the US .
Lists the magazine American group elements justifies described to the relationship as flawed from them : the killing of forces security , hundreds of protesters, the exploitation of Iran 's economy of Iraq to circumvent the sanctions , the US, receiving factions of Iraq backed by Iran, some of them on the list of sanctions , the US, allocations finance from the government of Iraq , which is not Persecute its leaders on the attacks on buildings and bases the US on the land of Iraq .
She noted the magazine said , although that Washington has provided assistance to hundreds of millions of dollars economically and militarily, and backed Iraq diplomatically, the hope to become a partner key in maintaining the stability and security of the Middle East, it is going the direction opposite, adding that " dialogue and strategic " is an opportunity last to change this trend And save Partnership US - Iraq 's long - term, calling on Washington to impose conditions for more power in exchange for support US provided to Iraq, and make it clear to Baghdad that it will lose a lot that did not show resistance to what it called the " hegemony of Iran ."
The Americans will go to the dialogue sessions , armed with a basket of power elements that enhance their negotiating position . This is not an easy task for Al-Kazemi . The Americans will put before him the file of the rise of ISIS terrorism , and they will remind Al-Kazemi that the Trump administration is seeking to provide 600 million dollars to train and equip the Iraqi security forces , and to secure 120 million dollars to support the economy of the Iraqi programs and other , including the disarmament of mines .
Washington is also a reminder of the passage of the Government of Baghdad to fund cash the World Bank and the International, if the continuing collapse of the economic which witnessed Iraq and the world . Therefore, Al- Kazemi's negotiating position will not be easy, especially as he understands that most of this aid can not be replaced by other countries if Washington refuses to provide it .
We continue to wait to see what if they manage Trump embarrassments of the decision of the parliament of the Iraqi vote to bring out its troops from the country, would seek to use the leaves pressure these on Kazmi, including in that the threat of sanctions oil ( as hinted foreign policy ) , what did not see Washington 's response to an Iraqi sufficient consideration to their demands .
In talking about the presence of military US, hints at " Foreign Policy " is clearly to distinguish not wearing it, to look at the US to all of Baghdad and Kurdistan . It has called for the need to prepare the administration of US plan to strengthen the role of troops US in Iraq to secure the safety of the province of Kurdistan, referring to it as opposed to Class political Iraq, the government of Kurdistan and its security supporting a large presence of military American .
She said that from through their concentration in Kurdistan pro -American, can US United do missions counter - terrorism necessary against Daesh, including in it in Syria, and without measures of protection wide Alamadtrh that adopted currently in its operations in areas other in Iraq . She pointed to it with ease the level of exposure Its risks, will be able to Washington to act in a more flexible in the face of the risks that posed Daesh and Iran .
Of striking reminders including declared President of the region of Kurdistan, Nechirvan Barzani, the site " the Monitor " US, which said , in which the Kurds and Arab Sunnis did not participate in the decision which is taken by the parliament of Iraq to derail forces the US, adding that it " constitutes a precedent bad ."
In this sense, it will be negotiations , dialogue and strategic uphill in all its aspects, while waiting for the Americans to monitor the features of the movement Kazmi including regard to the future of the forces of US, but from without to forget also that President Donald Trump himself said before two days , " we spent 8 trillion dollars on the worst decision was taken in Which Time before going to the Middle East, this probably the worst decision in the history of our country, as the killing of millions of people from both sides . "
Relations with Kurdistan
It comes Neil Kazmi confidence in parliament in time witnessing relations of Baghdad with the province of Kurdistan crisis of confidence growing, while blocs Kurdish in parliament , the Federal announced since the beginning of the road to support the nomination of Kazmi for the formation of the government .
Elements of several contributed to the heating differences are between Baghdad and Erbil, Pvt the most prominent of the recent decision of the Government of Adel Abdul Mahdi , cut salaries prescribed by the staff of the province of Kurdistan for reasons remained until now shrouded in a lot of ambiguity, in violation of the agreements established by the parties .
The decision to cut salaries are suddenly at the time , which is the delegation negotiating the Kurdish tour talks intensively with the various powers of government and party in Baghdad to settle files , hinder the development of relations between the two parties, which is reinforced asking questions about the significance of pouring oil on the fire on despite the relations of good that The Kurdish leadership linked Adel Abdul Mahdi .
If, will oversee the province of Kurdistan first positions Kazmi about file payroll, but give him confidence from the side of the blocks Kurdish, means implicitly that the understandings were to settle this issue without cramps extra lines hot between the two parties .
As is known, is a file resource oil more files complex, where contain the region Kurdish to 45 billion barrels of reserves of Iraq is estimated to 150 billion barrels, and the issue of Kurdistan between 400 thousand and 500 thousand barrels per day . But officially, it should be issued , including 250 thousand barrels per day for road Company SOMO oil government, and pay revenues resulting from what remains to balance the federal . In contrast, on Baghdad to pay about 12% of the budget of the Federal Erbil (8.2 billions of dollars ).
Perhaps all that it is imperative to Kazmi do it folding this file to activate the agreement , which was concluded in between Kurdistan and the government of Abdul - Mahdi in the year 2019 , after it included the budget year 2019 , which was approved, items refer to re - exchange the share of the territory of Kurdistan , which did not receive it in the budget year 2018 , He paid the salaries of the province's employees , including the Peshmerga fighters .
If is the test is simple to show the will Kazmi in addressing this dispute with the " allies " of the Kurds who supported him a parliamentary, so that the parties to address the file more hotter and target , including the so- called areas disputed by them within the provinces of Kirkuk , Salah al - Din , Nineveh and Diyala .
And can Kazmi meet the President of the Government of Kurdistan pleased with Barzani in the middle of the road to disarmament defuse this crisis , neglected and which were from among the elements that allowed to organize Daesh move under the shadow of areas disputed them, to re - activate his bloody . Masroor Barzani was called upon his assumption of office in Baghdad, which he visited immediately, To " leave past conflicts behind " in a clear expression of the desire to moisten the atmosphere .
Kurdish voices calling for vigilance and dealing with this file have also multiplied in the past days . Of including MP from the Party of Democratic Kurdistan Bashar Alkika , who said the Twilight News, " areas disputed by an unstable security since the events (16 October the first in 2017) and the withdrawal of the Peshmerga of which , despite the need for their presence The achievements of the successes of security throughout the years past " , calling on the need for " normalization of security " between the forces of the Federal and the Peshmerga to abort the risk Daesh, and the need to manage these areas in accordance with the Constitution and Article 140 thereof .
It is no secret to say that part of the complexity of the scene happening Baghdadia - Kurdistan, that the political forces in Baghdad are not in a position of consensus on how to approach the relationship with Kurdistan, and this is what puts Al-Kazemi in front of a major challenge that must be overcome to reach this file to the political safety .
Early elections
Escalated in the weeks last chants of protesters in the streets of Iraq 's demand to hold elections early, and they underwent pro - reference religious in Najaf, from without to have the idea of a unanimous politician in Baghdad .
What would Al-Kazemi do if he wanted to renew blood in the arteries of political life in Iraq and to persuade the protesters that he was gradually meeting their demands ? What will do as long as the forces of political key and even government, is considered that the elections now will not offer too much, and that even if a contract is determined to hold them , you will not have it available in the best case, Before the end of the year 2021.
Questions are raised before Al-Kazemi because he specifically spoke about the need to hold elections within a period not exceeding a year . Will the protesters give him this time? Maybe, but no matter for that, the step election itself itself is not it can foot it quickly for phrase reasons .
First on Kazmi , taking into account that the B Corona did not fizzle out , not even the cases of new records daily in areas different from Iraq , which is seen in some of the provinces or cities, the lack of commitment to popular measures of prevention and quarantine . The risk of opening boxes of ballot under the shadow of the epidemic, may cause a scenario "Download 2 " where he appeared first casualties in Iran, ran ignored in the stage first on the eve of elections , parliamentary, and what draws millions of voters Iranians to fund the ballot, contributed to this without a doubt, in expanding the circle of people with infections .
Maybe he says the man who said he was not able to Iraq, and the potential health available to deal with the risk of this size, but reasons other stand barrier without organizing elections fast . Some official Iraqi estimates speak of the need for a billion dollars to be spent on the electoral process . Is this available in light of the economic crisis? Suffocating , which we have already referred earlier? Do you come out Kazmi to announce soon the difficulty of the elections in the light of this situation? We will see .
MP from the " coalition of conquest " , the political actress for " crowd popular " , Hassan Shaker return, through all this by saying that " the elections need to funds of money, and that Iraq is going through a crisis financial result of lower prices of oil ." A spokesman on behalf of the Alliance MP Ahmed al - Asadi said , also " will not Are there elections early .. in the crisis , the current Commission, the elections will not occur only after Snetn . " The MP Abbas Silverline has spoken openly that most of the forces of political " is unwilling to conduct the elections early . "
Another disrupting factor . There is a need for some of the requirements of technical and legal related to the division of constituencies electoral, and to identify areas and districts considered the circle of electoral one, and to the integration of voters in those Aldoir who do not exceed the number of inhabitants 100 a thousand people with cities other . These changes will create considerations that do not count as components Some of these cities and the public parties and forces the political and clan - where , which must be taken into account .
UNHCR senior independent elections themselves, said recently that the process of electoral needs a series of steps of including legislation the law of elections and the tables attached to it, which determine the constituencies of the electoral and the number of seats for each circle, as well as for the allocation of the budget election, in addition to the registration of voters and update and create a record voter, and printing and distribution Card voter electronic registrants Bayomtrella, and the creation of lists of parties and organizations and political, with the open door of registration of candidates for the elections, and the processing of several verification e, and a sorting and counting mail, and software declaration of results, as well as for the preparation of publications included paper ballot forms and settlement results, and record voter, and the processing of materials used On The level of a registration center and polling center , and the preparation for concluding contracts and contracting for what elections need .
True that Adel Abdul Mahdi called in the beginning of March to conduct elections , general early in the 4 Canon the first next, and resolve the parliament before the election to 60 days, but the street had had earlier in raising this demand by months, in the face of class political .
That all the above does not open a path paved for the idea of elections early calls it Kazmi or delay the vote, what has put him in the case, either to Saddam with blocks political and offset in the parliament, or to tension extra with street protest popular . And both options, passed .
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