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Italian Institute: Iraq is stuck in its own crises, including Baghdad’s efforts to undermine the “authority” of the Kurdistan Region
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2024-04-26 09:46
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Shafaq News/ The Italian Institute for International Policy Studies, which is based in Milan, shed light on the internal and external challenges facing Iraq, including the Popular Mobilization Forces’ attempt to undermine the Kurdistan Region, addressing the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Baghdad, considering that Its main goal is to weaken the fighting power of the Kurdistan Workers' Party.
The Italian Institute mentioned in a report translated by Shafaq News Agency: “Iraq is a country grappling with regional and local challenges,” noting that Erdogan’s visit to Baghdad and Erbil came against the backdrop of deepening neighborhood cooperation, in his first visit in more than a decade, adding that while Baghdad seeks to raise the level of diplomatic relations with... Turkey, in order to deal with common concerns in the fields of energy, water and security, what Ankara seeks to achieve by reforming relations with Iraq is essentially to weaken the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.
According to the report, Erdogan’s visit included a meeting with the President of the Kurdistan Region, Nechirvan Barzani, and the Prime Minister of the Regional Government, Masrour Barzani, which indicates that Ankara is interested in helping Baghdad settle disputes with the Kurdistan Region, including the oil disputes that have not been addressed and which constitute a degree Baghdad's relations with the regional government are significant.
The report pointed out that the region is suffering from a cut in oil exports to Turkey, and from the erosion of its administration at the hands of the Baghdad government, which is influenced by Tehran.
The report continued that Baghdad's close relations with Iran are turning Iraq into an unstable country even at the regional level, adding that in light of the increasing regional tensions, it has become more difficult for Iraq not to slide into regional tensions between Iran and Israel, while it is also trying to achieve a cautious balance as well. Between his interests with Iran and with the West.
The report quoted researcher Erwin van Veen as saying, “Iraq and Turkey have a long list of reasons to maintain close relations in principle, such as water, energy, pipelines, roads, security and trade, but Turkey’s main motivation for continued rapprochement is to limit the fighting power of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, especially In Sinjar and Makhmour.
As for Iraq, according to Erwin van Veen, it seeks “to improve communication and trade,” adding that Baghdad has never been part of the conflict between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, and does not want to be. However, Erwin van Veen continued, saying that “it appears that Iraq's recent ban on the Kurdistan Workers' Party is a confidence-building step, but it is symbolic, because Baghdad has limited authority in areas of the Kurdistan Region under the control of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, where the Kurdistan Workers' Party is active.
The report quoted Erwin van Veen as warning that "without a greater Turkish desire to move forward on agenda items that concern Iraq, the current dialogue risks falling into the sand of the usual Iraqi divisions and Turkish arrogance."
As for researcher Ranj Alaeddin, from the American Middle East Council Institute, he says that Baghdad has gradually limited the autonomy of the Kurdistan Region under the directives and influence of the Popular Mobilization Forces, adding that “it is not a coincidence that Baghdad’s hostile approach towards the Kurdistan Region has developed simultaneously with... The rise of the Popular Mobilization Forces and their political importance, as they controlled Parliament and exercised great influence over the Prime Minister’s Office.
Aladdin continued, “Through support from Iran, the Popular Mobilization Forces engaged in negotiations with the regional government and its ruling party, the Kurdistan Democratic Party, under methods of coercion and intimidation,” adding that the Popular Mobilization Forces achieved some political and legal gains, sometimes using the Supreme Court. .
In this regard, the report quoted Aladdin as referring to what he described as the “dubiously wise” ruling issued by the Supreme Court in February 2022, stating that oil exports from the region were illegal, and to the court’s abolition of the quota for minorities in the region’s elections, a decision that led to Boycott of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of parliamentary elections in the region. Aladdin considered that this boycott indicates "the beginning of an Iranian-controlled political system in Iraq, which has been in the process of being formed for a long time."
The report quoted researcher Lorena Stella Martini as saying that the oil dispute still plays a decisive role in determining relations between Baghdad and Erbil, explaining that it was not a new issue ten years ago, as the central government in 2014 responded to the region’s export of oil to Turkey, via Freeze budget payments to Erbil.
Martini continued by saying that over the past two years, the federal government has sought, through several means, to impose its control over the Kurdish oil sector, which is evident in the 2023 budget law or through the recent ruling of the Supreme Court, which calls on Erbil to hand over all its oil and gas revenues to Baghdad.
She pointed out that this dispute over control of oil exports and revenues also hinders the reopening of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which has been suspended since March 2023, which has devastating economic repercussions on Erbil. Maratini said that the pipeline dispute "will tell us a lot about the development of relations between Baghdad and Erbil."
The report quoted Michael Knights, a researcher at the American Washington Institute, as saying that “Iraqi territory is being used as a starting point for launching attacks on Israel,” noting that there have been 69 attacks on Israel by the “Islamic resistance in Iraq” since November 2. 2023.
According to Knights, "It seems impossible for Iraq to stay away from Iranian-Israeli tensions, as many Iranian-backed militias are part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, which is considered one of the official branches of the Iraqi security forces, which means that one of the Iraqi state bodies is attacking... A foreign country, without the permission of the Supreme Commander of the Iraqi forces, that is, Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani.”
Knights considered that this does not represent a model for keeping Iraq out of the conflict, nor is it a model for how to achieve a balance between Iranian and Western interests, adding that the Israeli attack on a Popular Mobilization Forces base south of Baghdad on April 20 represents “a warning shot that Iraq cannot remain neutral.” "As long as its lands are used to attack Israel."
The report also quoted Hamza Haddad, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, as saying that in addition to “the old challenges facing every Iraqi government, such as internal relations between Baghdad and Erbil, the challenges currently facing the Sudanese Prime Minister are the possibilities of being drawn into a broader regional war.” And the inability to access profits from oil sales in New York.”
According to Haddad, as long as Iraq is still in the transitional phase of integrating paramilitary groups into the state's security services, some armed groups that enjoy greater independence "will continue to pose a challenge as long as the conflict in Gaza continues." He pointed out that at the same time, the American government, since the beginning of Al-Sudani’s term, imposed severe restrictions on Iraq’s access to these funds, for fear of smuggling operations of the American dollar to Iran.
Therefore, Haddad says, it is imperative for the Sudanese government to continue making arrangements with the US Treasury Department while implementing its own financial reforms to access foreign reserves in US dollars.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
2024-04-26 09:46
Share
Font
Shafaq News/ The Italian Institute for International Policy Studies, which is based in Milan, shed light on the internal and external challenges facing Iraq, including the Popular Mobilization Forces’ attempt to undermine the Kurdistan Region, addressing the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Baghdad, considering that Its main goal is to weaken the fighting power of the Kurdistan Workers' Party.
The Italian Institute mentioned in a report translated by Shafaq News Agency: “Iraq is a country grappling with regional and local challenges,” noting that Erdogan’s visit to Baghdad and Erbil came against the backdrop of deepening neighborhood cooperation, in his first visit in more than a decade, adding that while Baghdad seeks to raise the level of diplomatic relations with... Turkey, in order to deal with common concerns in the fields of energy, water and security, what Ankara seeks to achieve by reforming relations with Iraq is essentially to weaken the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.
According to the report, Erdogan’s visit included a meeting with the President of the Kurdistan Region, Nechirvan Barzani, and the Prime Minister of the Regional Government, Masrour Barzani, which indicates that Ankara is interested in helping Baghdad settle disputes with the Kurdistan Region, including the oil disputes that have not been addressed and which constitute a degree Baghdad's relations with the regional government are significant.
The report pointed out that the region is suffering from a cut in oil exports to Turkey, and from the erosion of its administration at the hands of the Baghdad government, which is influenced by Tehran.
The report continued that Baghdad's close relations with Iran are turning Iraq into an unstable country even at the regional level, adding that in light of the increasing regional tensions, it has become more difficult for Iraq not to slide into regional tensions between Iran and Israel, while it is also trying to achieve a cautious balance as well. Between his interests with Iran and with the West.
The report quoted researcher Erwin van Veen as saying, “Iraq and Turkey have a long list of reasons to maintain close relations in principle, such as water, energy, pipelines, roads, security and trade, but Turkey’s main motivation for continued rapprochement is to limit the fighting power of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, especially In Sinjar and Makhmour.
As for Iraq, according to Erwin van Veen, it seeks “to improve communication and trade,” adding that Baghdad has never been part of the conflict between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, and does not want to be. However, Erwin van Veen continued, saying that “it appears that Iraq's recent ban on the Kurdistan Workers' Party is a confidence-building step, but it is symbolic, because Baghdad has limited authority in areas of the Kurdistan Region under the control of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, where the Kurdistan Workers' Party is active.
The report quoted Erwin van Veen as warning that "without a greater Turkish desire to move forward on agenda items that concern Iraq, the current dialogue risks falling into the sand of the usual Iraqi divisions and Turkish arrogance."
As for researcher Ranj Alaeddin, from the American Middle East Council Institute, he says that Baghdad has gradually limited the autonomy of the Kurdistan Region under the directives and influence of the Popular Mobilization Forces, adding that “it is not a coincidence that Baghdad’s hostile approach towards the Kurdistan Region has developed simultaneously with... The rise of the Popular Mobilization Forces and their political importance, as they controlled Parliament and exercised great influence over the Prime Minister’s Office.
Aladdin continued, “Through support from Iran, the Popular Mobilization Forces engaged in negotiations with the regional government and its ruling party, the Kurdistan Democratic Party, under methods of coercion and intimidation,” adding that the Popular Mobilization Forces achieved some political and legal gains, sometimes using the Supreme Court. .
In this regard, the report quoted Aladdin as referring to what he described as the “dubiously wise” ruling issued by the Supreme Court in February 2022, stating that oil exports from the region were illegal, and to the court’s abolition of the quota for minorities in the region’s elections, a decision that led to Boycott of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of parliamentary elections in the region. Aladdin considered that this boycott indicates "the beginning of an Iranian-controlled political system in Iraq, which has been in the process of being formed for a long time."
The report quoted researcher Lorena Stella Martini as saying that the oil dispute still plays a decisive role in determining relations between Baghdad and Erbil, explaining that it was not a new issue ten years ago, as the central government in 2014 responded to the region’s export of oil to Turkey, via Freeze budget payments to Erbil.
Martini continued by saying that over the past two years, the federal government has sought, through several means, to impose its control over the Kurdish oil sector, which is evident in the 2023 budget law or through the recent ruling of the Supreme Court, which calls on Erbil to hand over all its oil and gas revenues to Baghdad.
She pointed out that this dispute over control of oil exports and revenues also hinders the reopening of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which has been suspended since March 2023, which has devastating economic repercussions on Erbil. Maratini said that the pipeline dispute "will tell us a lot about the development of relations between Baghdad and Erbil."
The report quoted Michael Knights, a researcher at the American Washington Institute, as saying that “Iraqi territory is being used as a starting point for launching attacks on Israel,” noting that there have been 69 attacks on Israel by the “Islamic resistance in Iraq” since November 2. 2023.
According to Knights, "It seems impossible for Iraq to stay away from Iranian-Israeli tensions, as many Iranian-backed militias are part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, which is considered one of the official branches of the Iraqi security forces, which means that one of the Iraqi state bodies is attacking... A foreign country, without the permission of the Supreme Commander of the Iraqi forces, that is, Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani.”
Knights considered that this does not represent a model for keeping Iraq out of the conflict, nor is it a model for how to achieve a balance between Iranian and Western interests, adding that the Israeli attack on a Popular Mobilization Forces base south of Baghdad on April 20 represents “a warning shot that Iraq cannot remain neutral.” "As long as its lands are used to attack Israel."
The report also quoted Hamza Haddad, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, as saying that in addition to “the old challenges facing every Iraqi government, such as internal relations between Baghdad and Erbil, the challenges currently facing the Sudanese Prime Minister are the possibilities of being drawn into a broader regional war.” And the inability to access profits from oil sales in New York.”
According to Haddad, as long as Iraq is still in the transitional phase of integrating paramilitary groups into the state's security services, some armed groups that enjoy greater independence "will continue to pose a challenge as long as the conflict in Gaza continues." He pointed out that at the same time, the American government, since the beginning of Al-Sudani’s term, imposed severe restrictions on Iraq’s access to these funds, for fear of smuggling operations of the American dollar to Iran.
Therefore, Haddad says, it is imperative for the Sudanese government to continue making arrangements with the US Treasury Department while implementing its own financial reforms to access foreign reserves in US dollars.
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