The Triple Alliance will elect the President of the Republic in the scenario of the Halbousi pass se

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[size=52]The Triple Alliance will elect the President of the Republic in the scenario of the Halbousi pass session[/size]

[size=45]Baghdad / Tamim Al-Hassan[/size]
[size=45]It is expected at any moment that the leaders of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr and the Fatah Alliance, Hadi al-Amiri, will meet, after news of the first's arrival in Baghdad.[/size]
[size=45]The supposed meeting - the first between the two parties after the crisis of electing the president of the republic - was to take place the day before yesterday, but it did not happen for unknown reasons.[/size]
[size=45]Expectations escalated regarding the meeting of the two poles of the political conflict that has been going on for months, hours after the arrival of an Arab Shiite figure close to Tehran in a new attempt to "bring together the Shiite forces."[/size]
[size=45]These developments are taking place at a critical time, as the Federal Court is approaching a new decision that might change the course of negotiations, while the coordination framework is an alternative plan.[/size]
[size=45]In the event that the mission of the new envoy to Iraq fails, the "Coordination Council" is counting on the disintegration of the tripartite alliance, of which al-Sadr is the most prominent pillar.[/size]
[size=45]The "Coordination" claims that he is close to taking the initiative from the tripartite coalition to form the government, and he may take an unusual path to preserve his gains, such as the renewal of Al-Kazemi, the current prime minister.[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, al-Sadr and his allies are preparing to re-mobilize the session to elect the president of the republic, in the manner of electing the speaker of parliament last month, if the "federalism" decision came in the interest of the tripartite alliance.[/size]
[size=45]And rejects the leader of the Sadrist movement, since the end of the legislative elections that took place last October, the involvement of some Shiite forces in the government, specifically former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sadr, who has the highest seats in parliament with 74 deputies, also presented a project to form a political majority government, which angered the Shiite forces, which see this as “exclusion,” which prompted them to make several offers and pressure in various ways to persuade the leader of the movement to change his opinion.[/size]
[size=45]New player![/size]
[size=45]The last of these offers was expected to be presented to al-Sadr on Monday evening, after a meeting of the "Coordination Group", which came after the arrival of a Shiite delegate, but this time he holds the nationality of an Arab country and has strong relations with Tehran.[/size]
[size=45]According to information reached (Al-Mada), "a meeting was planned by the coordination framework with the leader of the Sadrist movement, after the new guest entered the crisis line."[/size]
[size=45]On Monday, Al-Mada revealed that the new player entered Iraq, and he intends to mediate a Gulf state to pressure Al-Sadr or convey a threatening message to the latter's partners.[/size]
[size=45]According to the information, Al-Sadr had arrived on Monday in Baghdad, and the meeting was expected to take place on the same night.[/size]
[size=45]The information that came from sources close to the negotiations did not explain the reason for the failure of the meeting, but it revealed, in return, a new project for which the “Coordination Committee” is preparing.[/size]
[size=45]The project, which appears to have been planned by the new player after the failure of the mission of Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, is to renew the mandate of the President of the Republic and the current ministers.[/size]
[size=45]This will not happen without a numerical equation in Parliament, where the passing of the President of the Republic needs two-thirds of the seats, according to the latest interpretation of the Federal Court.[/size]
[size=45]numbers game[/size]
[size=45]According to the sources, the "Coordination Committee" claims that it is close to achieving this number, and it is rumored that it has now collected 130 seats, but it is still less compared to the seats of the Triple Alliance, which is more than 170.[/size]
[size=45]But the Shiite forces, according to the sources, claim that "independents", in addition to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, may all constitute two-thirds or more.[/size]
[size=45]On this basis, the “Coordination Committee” will keep Barham Salih, the President of the Republic, and repeat the “scenario” 2020, after the overthrow of the Abdul-Mahdi government, and the acceptance again of Al-Kazemi for a second term as prime minister.[/size]
[size=45]So far, there is no confirmation that the Shiite forces can achieve higher numbers than the tripartite alliance, as the position of the "neutral" representatives - who did not belong to one of the parties to the conflict and their number is expected to be around 50 - did not announce a supportive position with any party.[/size]
[size=45]The coordinating framework, on Monday evening, renewed its previous positions by calling for an investigation into the news of the existence of “threats” received by the leader of the Sadrist movement last Friday.[/size]
[size=45]These threats are considered, according to several political sources, as an attempt to “break up” the Triple Alliance.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Coordination denied the existence of threats, as he said in his last statement that if this news is true, it is a matter: “rejected and condemned.”[/size]
[size=45]The "Coordination" called on the competent authorities to "verify the authenticity of these news and take legal measures against those who are proven to have carried it out, or those who transmit incorrect information to breach civil peace."[/size]
[size=45]The statement considered that these methods "are far from the spirit of sound political action and national building."[/size]
[size=45]A few days ago, Al-Mada revealed, through informed sources, the arrival of threats from armed factions to some MPs, especially independents, who are close to the tripartite alliance.[/size]
[size=45]As those sources indicated at the time, Tehran conveyed a warning message to the Sunni forces’ regions of the occurrence of “security confusion” if they continued to ally with al-Sadr, through a Gulf state.[/size]
[size=45]And the coordinating framework said, after the news of the threat was lied by al-Maliki and Qais al-Khazali, the leader of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, that the country that transmitted the "fake" threatening messages, as he described it, is Qatar.[/size]
[size=45]Convoys of Hezbollah Brigades - one of the Popular Mobilization factions - entered Karma north of Fallujah two weeks ago, where Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi was set up, and were considered at the time to be a threatening message to the latter.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Halbousi, the leader of the Progress Alliance, is one of Sadr's most prominent partners, along with Khamis al-Khanjar, the leader of the Sovereignty Alliance, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party.[/size]
[size=45]Cohesion of the Triple Alliance[/size]
[size=45]In turn, Manaf al-Moussawi, a researcher in political affairs, points out that the tripartite alliance is still coherent, despite the opponent's attempts.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Moussawi stressed, in a call with (Al-Mada), that "there are undeniable pressures to dismantle the tripartite alliance, including threats."[/size]
[size=45]But on the other hand, the researcher in political affairs believes that changes may occur “and a political breakthrough in the crisis after the federal decision, especially since the parties to the Triple Alliance are continuing discussions.”[/size]
[size=45]It is expected that the court will decide today, Wednesday, the invitation submitted by a member of parliament to appeal the parliament's decision to open the nomination door for a second time for the position of President of the Republic.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Moussawi explains: "If the appeal is rejected, the tripartite coalition has sufficient seats and will repeat the scenario of the passing session of Al-Halbousi to choose the President of the Republic."[/size]
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