Oil trade .. high prices, OPEC revives dreams again

Oil trade .. high prices, OPEC revives dreams again
Nada Ali  
after the bear despair in the oil - producing countries, and succumbed to a wave of falling oil prices, rushed to take harsh austerity measures, started Features hope of higher oil prices again after the price of a barrel recently exceeded the ceiling of $ 50, and there are reasons led to this increase , including sudden fires in the forests of Canada and unrest in oil - producing countries and the decline in US shale oil production, has caused forest fires in Canada and political unrest in Venezuela and disruption to supply in Nigeria and Libya stopped production of nearly four million barrels per day. That led to allay concerns of oversupply of shares and the payment of oil prices to near $ 50 a barrel for the first time in seven months. With accurate information from the competent authorities indicate that the amount of oil supply surplus is the market is still very large and is lobbying hard in the direction of falling prices again 
The oil market is not already saturated still a surplus in supply of between one million and 1.5 million barrels per day. Given that Iran will likely increase production by at least 500 thousand to one million barrels per day in the near - term, despite the depreciation of the US shale production in the range of 600 thousand to 800 thousand barrels a day, the overall market will remain oversupplied anticipate continued weakness in demand growth with. » 
As oil prices surpassed $ 50 a barrel for the first time this year , with increasing signs of shrinking glut ofglobal oil supplies. In a boost to oil - exporting countries, including Venezuela , which has a crisis, oil prices rose again after the sharp collapse to around $ 27 in early 2016 after he surpassed $ 100 a barrel two years ago. It saw oil prices rebound in recent weeks due to lower Canadian supply due to fire, and theunrest in Nigeria, the biggest oil exporter in Africa, and strikes in Venezuela. 
Perhaps the big hurdle facing the oil - producing countries strongly appear in the pressure posed by the oil supply to the market and the failure of OPEC countries level reduce production or agreement to freeze it , the Organization of petroleum exporting countries announced (OPEC) in its quarterly report in Vienna that the oil market , which is still suffering from oversupply, and will return next year to what it was recorded «net deficit» because of the low production countries non - members of the organization. OPEC estimated that «there are convergent signs of decline in the production of non - member countries in OPEC, which probably will bring back the market to what it was and put it in the net deficit in the year 2017». 
This big obstacle should the oil states paid to this search for an effective and important and practical solutions, as it should reduction of the intervention and the impact of political differences in this area, yes ,there is considerable overlap between politics and the economy, but it would be better to exclude politics from the attitudes and actions oil -producing countries to absorb the oil windfall vast global markets, there is no hope of the rise in oil prices and access to a balanced level, what there was no firm action regards tofreeze oil production at a certain ceiling, despite numerous in this aspect problems, as do Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, as well as Iran 's refusal to freeze the position due to return to the oil market after 23 years of economic sanctions, so there is a high probability of return lower price because of the large oil supplies in the markets. 
abundance of oil limit the rise of the price gains 
in this context opinion poll conducted by Reuters and published its findings that are likely to limit the glut ofworld oil supply of crude price gains in the current year despite a series of cases of unexpected production downtime The contraction of the US shale oil production. And caused forest fires in Canada and political unrest in Venezuela and disruption to supply in Nigeria and Libya stopped production of nearly four million barrels per day. That led to allay concerns of oversupply of shares and the payment of oil prices to near $ 50 a barrel for the first time in seven months. 
But some analysts do not expect more than the annual average oil prices for this level a lot before next year. In the latest monthly opinion polls conducted by Reuters Thirty - three analysts who participated in thesurvey that the average price of crude up Brent global measurement in 2016 to $ 43.60 a barrel , up $ 1.30 from last month 's forecast of his arrival to $ 42.30 a barrel forecast. This represents the third consecutive monthly increase in the forecast of Brent prices , which averaged about $ 39 a barrel since the beginning of the year.  
However , the global oil stocks , which reached record highs , are expected to shift from without achieving any significant gains for some time. The poll showed that is expected to reach an average price of Brent futures to $ 56.40 a barrel in 2017 to rise to $ 64.30 in 2018. Thomas said the Pew commodities analyst at Capital Economics «cases of production disruptions from the main factors supporting prices at this time. We do not believe that prices will increase significantly from what it is now. » 
The« In fact we see that prices are prone to come down in the near term if some of the stalled supplies have returned or are signs that high prices stimulate more production emerged. »Analysts expect theparticipants in the Reuters poll to reach Average US crude futures to $ 42 a barrel in 2016 , up 1.50 dollars from the estimates in last month 's poll. The average US crude futures around $ 38 a barrel since thebeginning of the year. And on the whole , analysts expect not to make important decisions in theOrganization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting (OPEC) this week.
However, some analysts have expressed concern about the uncertainty surrounding the strategy of Saudi Arabia in light of competing with Iran on market share and after the appointment of the new Minister ofEnergy Khaled Al - Faleh. He said Harry Celinjueryan analyst at BNP Paribas «We do not expect a lot of (meeting) next OPEC in light of the turmoil in the relations of producers after the Doha meeting. What upheld by the people is Saudi Arabia 's position and intentions in the era of the new Energy Minister Khalid al - Falih. »The cross also Analysts expressed surprise by the pace at which lifted by Iran 's production and expect to return to the level of production before the sanctions by the third quarter of this year at the latest , according to Reuters. 
He said Rahul Brithiana director, Crisil Research « the oil market is already saturated with excess supply ofbetween one million and 1.5 million barrels per day. Given that Iran will likely increase production by at least 500 thousand to one million barrels per day in the near - term, despite the depreciation of the US shale production in the range of 600 thousand to 800 thousand barrels a day, the overall market will remain oversupplied anticipate continued weakness in demand growth with. »Expected most analysts match thesupply demand in the next year , but agreed that it may take longer to get rid of surplus stocks in themarket. 
oil rises above $ 50 a barrel 
in the same vein it exceeded the price of oil to $ 50 a barrel for the first time this year , with increasing signs of shrinking glut of supplies global oil. In a boost to exporting countries , points, including Venezuela ,which has a crisis, oil prices rose again after the sharp collapse to around $ 27 in early 2016 after he surpassed $ 100 a barrel two years ago. And it saw a rebound in oil prices in recent weeks due to lower Canadian supply due to fire, and the unrest in Nigeria, the biggest oil exporter in Africa, and strikes in Venezuela. Canada 's central bank has announced that the fires that swept through the country 's western provinces , which is the main supplier of oil to the US market, will affect the country 's production. The total price of Brent North Sea $ 50 a barrel , either WTI has reached to $ 50.08 a barrel, the price exceeds $ 50 per barrel for the first time since early November. The analyst said Dorian Lucas of the company «Anenko» energy consultancy that «oil breaking the $ 50 a barrel for the first time in nearly seven months, supported by government data that showed a decline in US oil inventories to less than expected last week. US Department of Energy reported that US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels in theweek up to May 20 , according to AFP. Said Ric Spooner , chief analyst at the company «CMC Markets» in Sydney television Bloomberg News that «direct engine is US crude stocks , which helped to raise prices slightly». 
Will be watching the traders in the market now , whether this price will continue despite the US dollar 'sstrength . Spooner said that «market did not hear any bad news Tzaazaah, but it is likely that the prices find it difficult to survive in the fifties. There is still a good amount of oil reserves ». And sowed the rise in oil prices , a state of satisfaction in regional bourses, where shares recorded a rise in the energy markets ofAsia Among energy stocks rose the company «and Rliparsons» Engineering rose 4.6% in Sydney, and shares the company «BHP Billiton» by 2.7 %, while in Hong Kong shares the company «CNN Anouk» rose more than 2% and Sinopec shares rose 1.3%. 
Inpex listed in the Tokyo stock Exchange index rose 2.5%, as the month «Jay X. Holdings» rose by 1, 4%.But with the exception of energy stocks, was lukewarm performance of Asian markets, where the Hong Kong Stock Exchange did not register a rise of only 0.1% compared with 2.7%. Seoul Stock Exchange fell by 0.2% compared with a rise of 2.7%. The Seoul stock market fell by 0.2% , while the Markets in Sydney and Shanghai rose 0.3% when shut down. Manila Stock Exchange fell by 1.2%. The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed down on firming after it added more than a percentage point at the beginning of the day, but the shares of the company «Takata» air bags jumped after a private American company announced its intention acquired. And plans to «Kolberg Karfis Roberts» US firm to acquire a 60% stake of the Japanese company, according to the newspaper «Nikkei» Japanese daily, which led to increasing the company 's share price increased by 21.16% to 458 yen. 
And awaited the markets now , the results of the Group of Seven that in talks Japan. Among the most important summit agenda items faltering global economy, although he is likely to remain divisions over whether the world should spend or spared out of the financial crisis, with both Japan and Germany differ on this issue. And miss China, the second largest economy in the world, from the summit, but the dispute over the assertion of sovereignty over the South China Sea hangs over the talks.
 

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