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Long recession .. Quartet economy syndrome
8/17/2016 0:00
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Dr.. The appearance of Mohammed Saleh
in a major study published in the American Economic Review in March of 1938 under the title: economic progress and low population growth, drawing the famous American economist (Alvin Hansen) , who was a follower of John Maynard School treasure, theoutline of the fundamental characteristics of the phenomenon of the long recession continued or experienced by Western economies, as they embody the imbalances caused by the increased propensity to save and lower tendency to Astosmar.az arranged long recession , a state of non - growth in the market economy . Where phenomenon begins a relatively high level of per capita GDP and savings rise ratio begins compared desirable investment or investment in the long term and therefore we will syndrome Quartet of the economy as the reason for the long recession in rich countries as follows: 3 - (QE to helicopter money) until the year 2009 does not have who would have thought that interest rates will remain near zero over 6 years, at a time when European interest rates stood at negative levels at a time when central banks of the industrialized countries of the seven adult magnified in expanding their balance sheets by firing about $ 5 trillion such as the issuance of cash Adava.opalrgem of that annual inflation continued low below 2 percent in the United States, Europe and Japan. in on the eve of the global financial crisis in 2008 the public debt ratio increased to GDP sharply from 47 percent to 70 percent at the present time in Europe and 95 percent to 126 percent in Japan, however the long - term interest rates continue (for ten years) low in Mlhoz.olm increased interest rates on US long - term bonds at 2 percent. maintained that long -term half of one percent in Germany 's interest, and less than 2 per thousand in Japan until early 2016 . It is , which confirms that the annual inflation and real interest rates will continue are low for years Akhary.ually though the passage of seven years from the start of the financial crisis, the recovery in the US economy is still a long way off the other.but not expect the market to return to normal climate , whatever the circumstances. But there are many interpretations of the various economists about what is happening in thecapitalist economy today of an ongoing recession problems, which attributes theeconomic (Kenneth Rogoff) phenomenon long recession talking about the debt fatigue theory. Addresses (Robert Gordon) to the phenomenon of the recession of the angle: the theory of supply - side problems, either former bank chairman of the Federal reserve of the United States (Ben Bernanke) Viazzo recession to satiety savings theory, while finding (Paul Krokmn) in a liquidity trap theory being the interpreter only long recession.regardless of this and that, and the health of all the theories mentioned, but the recession theory long still explain the economic situation in a comprehensive manner and call the appropriate prescription required for economic policy to get out of trouble himself recession. Interest rates represent the price of money , which adapts to balance thedemand for display savings Alasttmarat.oan surplus in savings tends to pull the interest rate downward .ulfaid in investment demand tends to pull the interest rates towards Alaaly.o following the findings of the world of the Swedish economy (Knut Wicksell) the real interest rate that balances the desired saving and investment desired at the stage ofcomprehensive utilization is the natural rate of interest or interest - neutral price.Recession term occurs when the real interest rate down to a degree that can not under it to perform its role despite the exercise of monetary policy , the so - called: facilitation Alkami.az longer quantitative easing policy adopted by the central banks are important to the shelter to lift the economy from recession , families are disrupted when the interest rate tool for college work . This happened in Japan in the nineties of the last century and the majority of Western countries at the beginning of the third millennium . Therefore quantitative Valtisar is attempting to influence (quantities of money / cash issuance , any expansion) rather than using the (cash price) in the economy (ie , interest) .opalaudh to Alncode recent history, the count Milton Friedman of the Chicago School of Economics, being the first to launch a new expansionary monetary policy for cash plane zenith in his book: Qty optimum of money in 1969 to meet the Helicopter Money lower interest rates to Elsafr.az the plane money policy zenith on the principle of direct lending to the public by the monetary authorities .oan done by the Japanese central bank to finance theinitiative of the general budget by or the so - called cash release (Ptnqad budget) came out that everyone will feel that this new liquidity available is final and will not berepeated, which encourages spending and bypass pumping liquidity through the so -called ( the positive impact of wealth). The plane 's policy azimuthal alternative to thepolicy of quantitative easing , referred to above, which is the best way to maximize theeffective demand, especially in a period of pumping liquidity and the continuing recession and reach the central banks ' so - called phase boundary minimum zero - interest that took the BOJ adopted, for example , in order to make the money supply to the highest level possible in the future so that the vestigial believe Monetary main source of central bank assets is tantamount to Aujsom. Liabilities and not liabilities Assets or assets 4 - Summary and Conclusions Although the ratio of workers to retirees taking decline in most developed countries, as well as in the emerging - market countries, there is thequestion important: Is there a limit to the extent to which notification of savings in height until being traded for goods and services and spending for welfare? Studies indicate that the long cycle of recession has really started to subside. And that the term real interest short rates have been taken close to the rates of positive .obdot Japan to liquidate foreign assets , which won the individuals during the high - saving years and also took Germany , South Korea and China to precisely follow Japan in the liquidation Savings employee semi - liquid financial with assets Ajunbah.oan interest rates may It began tomove towards equilibrium levels to make the desired savings equal to the desired Viha.az believes that investments in interest rates is like oil in the financial system and the machine that helps the flow of capital from one place to another, which is why Explain how interest rates remained positive throughout the last three centuries despite the global wars and economic depression. The international financial system is not designed to be compatible with negative interest rates as a London - based Economist magazine in its issue dated July 16th 2016. So it says expects in 2025 that the historical balance is achieved in the short term , where the annual interest will inevitably positive about 3 percent. And then end the ongoing recession posed by low economic growth rates. And disintegrate then syndrome causing Quartet economy for the long recession of mutual archeology between the composition of the population and the power oftechnology and the high savings and the rule of real negative interest Allatoazinah. Finally, it may be realized Economic John Maynard prophecy Kinsalta uttered in the early thirties of the last century on the world - flops in his pessimism the impact of economic crisis international & Archeology called crisis recession Alazim.az showed treasure optimism which is halfway between a recession and economic revolution , stressing the broad article in the year 1930 is marked by : (economic potential of our grandchildren): saying that we will leave grandchildren richer than their ancestors, but the track is not risk free! !!.[/rtl]
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