Long recession .. syndrome Quartet economy 1-2
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8/14/2016 0:00
[rtl]In an important study published in the American Economic Review in March of 1938 under the title: economic progress and low population growth, drawing the famous American economist (Alvin Hansen) , who was a follower of John Maynard School treasure, outlines the fundamental characteristics of the phenomenon of the long recession , or persistent suffered by Western economies, as they embody theimbalances caused by the increased propensity to save and lower tendency to Astosmar.az arranged long recession , a state of non - growth in the market economy .Where phenomenon begins a relatively high level of per capita GDP and then start saving ratio to rise compared to the desired investment or investing in the long term, especially investment in education, infrastructure and others, as they represent all necessary condition for economic growth in the future Almstdam.ouma deterioration ofincome and falling savings rates gradually and then falling investment rates, economic growth will depend entirely Amehalh.vkd showed economic history overall, excessive saving action or ineffective counting impediment to the growth of demand activity or total spending on goods and services and lead to a decline in Alnmovi GDP, as well as thelow level of Altdkhm.kma leads the imbalance between savings and Alastosmaraly pull real interest rates drop to the lowest possible. As well as the atheist and the twentieth century has not been without long - term recession, when rapid growth in the US economy received during the period 2003-2007, it came is derived from dangerous levels of borrowing , which was able to surplus savings turned to non - sustainable levels of investment , and caused the mortgage bubble in 2008. In spite of theimportance of what provoked Professor Larry Summers of Harvard University , in hisarticle published in the Journal of the American Foreign Affairs of February 15, 2016 and marked: the era of the long recession, they have missed in his article syndrome Quartet causing a recession long represented: Population and technology and savings and interest rates once, but Summers was important aims of the article is how theexpansionary fiscal policy of the Government of the United States to help overcome thelong recession problems and make growth takes the track. Accordingly , we will address the syndrome Quartet of the economy as the reason for the long recession in rich countries as follows: 1 - population and technology in 1937 , the effects of John Maynard Keynes , the founder of macroeconomic talk in the lecture was entitled: some of the economic consequences of falling growth in the population , adding that one of theconcerns of Keynes ' time that is the so - called «new disease» or «technological unemployment» .az pointed treasure for the first time that the rapid technological developments will not provide a sufficient supply of labor to conduct power. Today we are in the second decade of the atheist and the twentieth century and the prophecy of the treasure still embodies the rich economies suffer from economic chronic diseases caused by the Altknulogia.valtalb weak on goods and services and savings surplus population syndrome may have made it impossible for economic growth that is moving at a high rate using a low - interest rate tool short Alajl.valtrkib population has become theprimary actor in this economic morbidity, and that the sovereignty of the population of thebig reconstruction has become a pillar of the decline in economic growth and interest together across Aadidh.az total output desired channels in the economy depends on thenumber of employees and their productivity in the Bible two countries, Germany and Japan, for example, the proportion of the population who are of working age are in continuous decline for more than two decades and the odd time .fmn known that areduction of half a percentage point to the growth rate of the labor force will inevitably lead to a decline in the rate of economic growth to the same extent. Thus assumed contemporary economic models of economic growth analysis that physical capital share of a company (whether buildings or equipment, land or intellectual property rights) foreach worker in order to produce a single unit, is diminishing as long tended producing companies to use less work over time, thus, the need for capital will be less and that thestock of physical capital growth has slowed in the United States from the level of 3 percent during the years 1994 to 2004 to a level of no more than one and a half percent in the ten years Alajerh.oan third of that slowdown was the source of slower growth in the labor supply, and the rest due to rising technological innovations. In other words ,companies shall buy a little of the machines and equipment as long as the number of workers who occupied is less .oan exploit technological innovations and implicated in theareas of production will be less often as well. It is no secret that one of China 'seconomic problems and the current decline in the growth rates of 13 percent to 6 percent is the strength of technological innovations and the cost of renovations ongoing in making capacity for technological innovation is limited and that competitiveness is constantly stumbled. As its economy is exposed today to the so - called recession Altknulogi.ourgem therefore, China continues to investigate display a soft high - tech work force, after it had become Chinese society approaching the age of aging and theincreasing age of population of retirement age of the stage, which led the Chinese leadership to lift the under - bearing per household from child to child two children ,two. 2 - population, savings, interest rates , economists have tried to explain the economic recession , which could continue for many decades and show that the essence of the problem lies in the lack ofpopulation, especially those in the age Alaml.ohma was expressed by the founder of themodern science of macroeconomics John Maynard Keynes in 1937 when he said that the population shift from decreasing to increasing is disastrous. The phenomenon of theincreasing population in the interests of the elderly to allow nature to cut economic growth and low rates of short - term interest rates together through evolution the most important channels in the phenomenon of growing and high savings rates. Individuals are more inclined to borrow high density at the beginning of the age at the age ofAlaml.az usually use the money in exchange to meet the educational expenses and home requirements of consumer and other . But with the escalation of the reconstruction of the working age population and the age of a middle - aged career upwards towards retirement, the savings phenomenon takes escalate as a hedge for retirement phase ,which requires a willingness to spend and the future of exchange to meet the needs ofaging . But the recession will take its course long before it really starts to fade and go back to recovery. Lost the British Cambridge University and the Higher Institute in Geneva specifically took over two years ago , the trend towards economic analysis of this phenomenon . Where the professor Koian Tewolnks hold accounts on many economies, which have been published their findings in a book published in 2014 , with his colleague Baldwin at the Graduate Institute in Geneva and marked : recession -term: what it is , its causes and Alajh.az noted scientists that there is a relationship between the escalation of savings and the age composition of the population in different countries .vklma the population continues to grow and prepare retirees less in proportion, the trend toward savings be less and vice level when they become retirees have the big weight with a Andmak savings .fly prosperity level of the United States the proportion of the desired savings to GDP in 1970 is (minus 228 percent) day tomorrow borrowers household sector for the purposes of consumer spending falters a little Madkharc.oan explain this phenomenon stems from the perception Set as long as individuals who arebelieved to those of working age that the march of life process will enable them to expand their income in the future, the ability to repay their debts and build their savings to meet the financial needs for the post - retirement must be to see a big increase. Thus it found Koian Tewolnks and his colleague that the savings ratio to GDP in the United States have changed to a (positive 52 percent) in 2010 with growing older in thecomposition of the population after it was in 1970 by (minus 228 percent) as Asilvna.kzlk it in Japan, Germany and China and for the same duration as the savings ratio haschanged to GDP in Japan (minus 176 percent) to the (positive 119 percent) and changed in Germany (plus 198 percent) up to (plus 325 percent) and China (minus 42 percent) to (positive 86 percent) . Thus it coincided some of the economies that haveseen high savings rates with a growing proportion of retirees or the elderly in thecomposition of the population to shock the investment capabilities of low accompanied by a sharp decline in the general activity of Finance and the resort of big companies to embrace the phenomenon of cash compactness liquid and the prevalence of inequality efforts ( that make the most of the gross domestic product in the hands of savers rich), all of which led to the deterioration of the equilibrium interest rate (ie , capable interest to make the desired savings rate equivalent to the desired investment) .oppema Van (savings higher positive) that prevailed in the stages of a lack of investment and low economic growth taking coincides with the (negative real interest rates of short - term) , it shows the growing savings and accompanied by an ongoing recession in which rich countries wandering up to the minute.[/rtl]
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