Edmonton Oilers

G68 Oilers vs Canadiens: Zach Aston-Reese and College Free Agents
March 12, 2017, 3:26 PM ET [100 Comments]
Matt Henderson
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The Edmonton Oilers find themselves in a spot that a few weeks ago seemed improbable. They find themselves in a Wild Card spot. The Ducks and the Flames have leapfrogged them with 80 points. A win tonight can push Edmonton past both clubs once again. With Edmonton and Calgary playing on alternating nights for the next few weeks, we could see a lot of back and forthing going on.

A name that has come up recently in talks about the Oilers is Zach Aston-Reese from Northeastern University.




As per Elliotte Friedman, the Oilers are among the Canadian teams who are vying to get this undrafted college free agent signed to an entry level contract. Aston-Reese is a 22 year old left shooting winger who can be described as a late bloomer. As a teenager in the USHL, the best offensive season he ever had was 9-21-30 in 60 games with the Lincoln Stars. Of note, he added 113 PIMs that year.

In College at Northeastern his goal and point totals climbed every single year.

Rookie 35GP, 8-11-19, 22 PIMs
Sophomore 31GP, 13-10-23, 60 PIMs
Junior 41GP, 14-29-43, 28 PIMs
Senior 38GP, 31-32-63, 72 PIMs

Aston-Reese is billed as a Power Forward, and you’ll note he has the penalty minutes to support that claim. He’s not an overly big player at 6’0” and 204 pounds, so I imagine he’s coming by that billing honestly. The truth is, we can only go on the scouting reports because the vast majority of us haven’t had a chance to see this player.

I have absolutely no problem with the Oilersgoing after late bloomers. Yeah, I’d love to put my eggs in the basket of players with a longer track record of offensive success, but those players are going to be increasingly more difficult to come by for Edmonton. The Oilers are a team on the rise and will likely be drafting in the 20+ range for the next several years. The era of lottery picks should be over now.

That’s going to make a massive difference at Edmontons success at the draft table. I wish I could say that the Oilers had been more successful at the draft these past 5-6 years, but for every Klefbom there’s a Moroz. For every Marincin there’s a Marco Roy. Edmonton’s poor track record outside of the lottery positions should signal to most fans how the relative value of draft picks drops like a stone out of the top 3-4 spots.

Steven Burtch did a nice write-up of draft pick valuation a couple years ago here. This is important to look at because the difference in relative value between picking in the lottery vs picking 20 of later is massive. The value if that late 1st rounder is already a third of the 1st overall pick. By the back half of the 2nd round we’re down to 15% of the value. It’s staggeringly low odds of finding a solid NHL player by the time teams get to their 2nd pick in the draft. Obviously clubs find players there, it’s just less frequently.

So when someone arrives as a 22 year old, has been developed outside the typical system, and looks like a player then it’s basically found money. College free agents aren’t always going to pan out. Be they goalies, forwards, or defensemen, they are still amateur players transitioning to the major leagues of the sport. Not every highly touted draftee survives that jump. The difference is that we have had more time to see these guys play before committing a contract, and all they cost is that contract.

As Edmonton’s picks in the draft plummet in value, the importance of finding players like Aston-Reese rises. Matthew Benning is another example of how these players can impact the club. The Oilers didn’t need another 18 year old defender. They needed someone who was much closer in terms of their maturity to being an NHLer. They got Benning and he stepped on to the NHL club right away. Edmonton added youth and a player who was ready to become a pro. Perhaps ZAR can be the same.

And it doesn’t hurt the bidding process that Matthew Benning just happened to be Aston-Reese’s teammate and roommate at Northeastern University.




Edmonton can offer the opportunity to play on a good team, with a new arena, with the best player in the world, and with a familiar face. And they probably wouldn’t mind burning a year on the ELC right away either.

LINEUP

Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Lucic RNH Eberle
Pouliot Desharnai Kassian
Hendricks Letestu Pakarinen

Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Russell
Nurse Benning

Talbot
Brossoit

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) What A Game! The Oilers played what was their most entertaining game of the season against the Penguins. After a spotty 1st period where a couple of leaky goals put the team behind the 8 ball, the Oilers really went into desperation mode. Edmonton took over the attempts and the shot clock followed. McDavid lead the way and was flying all over the ice. The 2nd line dominated possession. If not for heroics (and a trip that went uncalled) from Fleury the game would have ended differently. The challenge is to take that level of play and pick up against the Canadiens where they left off.

2) The Price Is Low. For whatever reason, Carey Price has not played very well against the Oilers. I cant explain it. I have no logical reason for why an otherwise fantastic goaltender plays like trash against what has been a very poor team up to this season. He’s 1-6-1 in 8 career appearances with an .856 save percentage against Edmonton. It is, by far, the worst he’s performed against any one club and especially odd for a man with a career .920 save percentage. He’s expected to start against the Oil tonight and if those career numbers continue then this could be a rough night for Montreal.

3) Radulove. When Alexander Radulov returned to the NHL I think most people weren’t expecting much. Hockey people have had a low opinion of the former Nashville Predator since he bolted for the KHL in 2008. The 30 year old has been crushing the KHL offensively, but low opinions of that league have resulted in some serious underestimation of the players there. Now, it’s not exactly a direct translation of offense, but Radulov had 65 points in 53 KHL games a year ago. Today he has 46 points in 63 games with the Habs and is 2nd in team scoring. He’s been a solid addition for them and he’s returning back from a lower body injury today to play with Galchenyuk. Safe to say we cant overlook this player anymore.