Edmonton Oilers

G75 Oilers vs Avalanche: What It's Like Without McDavid and Russell
March 25, 2017, 3:33 PM ET [45 Comments]
Matt Henderson
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The Oilers took the Win from the Avalanche in the last game, but they did everything in their power to spot Colorado the win. That garbage fire of a start they had in Anaheim transferred over to the game in Denver and Talbot simply wasn’t ready to bail them out. It was not a pretty game.

Most distressing wasn’t that the Avalanche took two separate leads in the game. It’s that they genuinely looked like the better team for 40 minutes. In the 3rd period the game reverted to the way it had played out on paper hours before. The Avalanche were overwhelmed and the Oilers offensive talents went unchecked. It was Deja-Vu for Oiler fans, except in reverse. That Avalanche team reminded me so very much of the awful Oiler clubs that couldn’t help but sabotage themselves and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Edmonton is sitting pretty well in the standings right now with 89 points. A loss to Dallas last night kept the Sharks at 91 points, just as the win against Winnipeg has the Ducks at 91 as well. Just 2 points separate 1st and 3rd in the Pacific. It is anybody’s game and the Oilers play San Jose and Anaheim again as well as a soft parade like the Avalanche and Canucks. There is no denying that Edmonton can control its destiny in these final games.

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This morning Sunil Agnihotri posted this interesting item on his website about McDavid and the scoring race. It’s an interesting take on exposing a problem we have known existed for several months now: Russell’s negative effects impact even McDavid. The Oilers opted to ignore the problem this year, and it costs them offense as it is, but ignoring it beyond this year will really set this team up for big problems down the road.

The evidence shows that the Oilers have two players who can greatly affect the play on the ice. One, McDavid, pushes the game forward and creates shot attempts and scoring chances like crazy. The other, Russell, grinds the game to a halt and at prevents the puck from leaving the Oiler zone. But McDavid plays more than any other Oiler forward at even strength and Russell plays more than any other Oiler defender at even strength (I know, shocking).

When we are looking at the Oilers players and their advanced stats, it is best practice to look at WOWYs (With Or Without You). These can sometimes give you an idea about whether or not the players are getting a push from someone or not. For Example, McDavid has a Corsi For percentage of 52.7% this season. With Kris Russell that drops to 47.5% CF. McDavid apart from Russell has a 54.9% CF. Russell apart from McDavid has a 44.5% CF. So we can see the drag effect that the Oiler defender has on the league’s leading scorer.

I was interested in seeing what it looks like when you remove BOTH McDavid AND Russell from the equation. Thanks to the Puckalytics website we can do that. The image below shows how all of the Oiler regulars do with 97 and 4 off of the ice. The numbers for McDavid and Russell represent their performance without the other on the ice. We’ve completely removed their effect on the ice and this is what remains.

source: imgur.com

I was most pleased with Nuge, Eberle, and Pouliot among the forwards. Draisaitl’s performance disappoints me greatly and this is just one of the reasons why we should be wary of taking his success on the wing with McDavid and assuming everything will translate nicely with him in the 2C spot on his own. Maroon’s goals for percentage is low without McDavid and Russell, but considering the minutes are low and the attempts are overwhelmingly positive, I think it would round out over time.

On the blueline, Benning stands out positively. Sekera, like Maroon, has low Goals For but high Corsi For. The two Swedes look like they’re holding their own pretty well. After that it’s a gong show and Russell’s shot attempt metrics bottom out the entire club. I’d say Nurse and Gryba have some pretty garbage luck with goal numbers that low and I think I’d be right, but conventional wisdom suggests the 3rd pair ought to have the lowest numbers of the group.

Remember that Goals For will tell you what happened in the past but Corsi For is a better indicator of what will happen in the future.

When we take McDavid and Russell out of the mix, it still looks to me like the remaining players in the top 9 can get the job done reasonably well. On the blueline, I think McLellan needs to strongly consider reducing Russell’s minutes and promoting Benning. The young man isnt just getting a boost from the best player in the league. Good things happen when he’s out there.

LINEUP

Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Lucic RNH Eberle
Pouliot Desharnais Kassian
Caggiula Letestu Khaira

Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Russell
Nurse Benning

Brossoit
Talbot

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) Revenge. The Avalanche embarrassed themselves in the 3rd period of the last game. They know it. We know it. The entire hockey world knows it. Edmonton played poorly and didn’t deserve to win that game. Sakic’s club, if there’s any pride left whatsoever, will want revenge. This game has the chance to go gloriously off the rails tonight. This whole thing could devolve and turn into 70’s hockey if the Avalanche decide to take their frustrations out on the Oilers skaters physically. Some early goals, on the other hand, could just end up demoralizing the team. Oiler fans have been there before, by this time of the year these types of clubs can just want to get the games over with.

2) Ell Bee. Laurent Brossoit earned the game tonight but it wasn’t easy for him to get the start. First he had to get into the game against the Ducks because Talbot was awful and he had to perform well. Then he had to get into the game against the Avs because Talbot was awful and he had to perform well (on his birthday). Talbot has been playing a lot of hockey lately and everyone is going to point to the number of games he’s played and say he’s fatigued. I’m with some more “progressive” types when I say I think physically he’s probably fine and goalies are coddled way too much. However, mental fatigue is another issue. As much as Brossoit has earned this game, Talbot just needed to clear his head for a weekend. Yeah, Brossoit has hardly played, but he’s up to a .928 save percentage. Good enough for me right now!

3) Races. The Oilers are on the verge of seeing their best player win at least one major NHL award. McDavid leads the Art Ross race by 5 points right now. Sidney Crosby is hot on his heels and is edging him in points per game 1.21 to McDavid’s 1.18 this season. It is a tight race that ought to come down to the wire. McDavid CAN still conceivably hit 100 points, but he needs at least 2 points per game for the next 8 games. A big one tonight helps a lot. At the same time, Draisaitl races to keep his spot in the top 10 of NHL scoring. His 74GP, 26-43-69 points have him 10th overall right now. The carrot at the end of this stick is a bonus on his ELC. That’s good for him. Not 100% good for the Oilers, but at least it means he’s scoring.

Puck drops at 8PM Mountain Time on Hockey Night in Canada. Game On!