January 21, 2020
Despite the sacrifices of the Iraqi and Lebanese movement, there are reasons that may hinder the achievement of goals
Despite the sacrifices made by the Lebanese and Iraqi protests, the aspirations of the two peoples may be different from what people want, according to political analysts.[/size]
Despite the approaches that bring together the Lebanese and Iraqi affairs in terms of corruption and Iranian interference in political affairs, Barrell explained the difference between Iraq and Lebanon, as Iraq has a possible economic infrastructure based on the fifth largest oil reserves in the world. In Lebanon, there is no real resource that can guarantee the repayment of huge debts amounting to $ 90 billion, or about 155 percent of GDP.
But even Iraq’s vast resources have not sealed it from drowning in huge debts like Lebanon, especially with the deep corruption that strengthens the ruling class, according to Barrell.
Lebanon is awaiting $ 11 billion in aid, given by a group of donor countries. In theory, this amount could play a role in paying off part of its debt, or at least, it might contribute to the rehabilitation of economic infrastructure.
But Lebanon will not see any dollars as long as there is no reliable government that can be guaranteed to use the funds to achieve the right goals, according to the Israeli writer.
Barrell adds that regime change does not only lie in removing Hezbollah from the center of its political power. Lebanon has enjoyed economic prosperity for many years, even when Hezbollah was part of the government and parliament.
Likewise in Iraq, the ethnic and sectarian composition of the system, the division of spoils between large ethnic groups and sectarian quotas, and the belief that the country belongs to the ruling oligarchy, all this controls legislation and the process of wealth distribution between power groups.
In both countries, the magic solution is considered a government of technocrats, but instead a "technocratic" government is proposed, where the government is made up of politicians with professional experience, according to the Israeli writer.
"Hezbollah has no desire to hear the statements of the experts. The group is demanding a government that represents all sects, or in other words, a government that is not different from the previous. Until recently, when appointed Prime Minister Hassan Diab insisted on a government of experts, he realized that he would not be able," he said. To persuade the private stakeholders who agreed to appoint him as prime minister. "
“In Lebanon and Iraq, ethnic and tribal have evolved into political parties that manage their battles in official arenas, such as parliaments and the government. Unlike the more established countries like Egypt and Jordan, parliament there is of real importance as a legislative body, and there is active opposition to the government, and most importantly, So, an audience that realizes and uses its power. "
Barrell concludes his article by describing the opposition in both Lebanon and Iraq, by saying: "This is a popular opposition mainly based on the younger generation ... The question remains whether this generation will succeed in translating its aspirations into a true political victory."
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