For the producers of the US shale oil, the price of $ 40 is equivalent to the current price of $ 70 before.
Since less than a year was a major shale oil companies say they need oil above $ 60 a barrel even produce more and now some say they would accept less than that when deciding whether they will increase production after the worst collapse in the price of oil generation.
The recent statements shed light on the durability noteworthy enjoyed by the sector but also directed a warning to competitors and traders message saying that the decline in US oil production, which will contribute to the decline of the global supply glut and price recovery may be short-lived compared to what some might expect.
Said John Hart, chief financial officer of Continental Resources, led by billionaire Harold Hamm exploration last week that the company is willing to increase capital spending reached if the price of US crude to average between the first and the scope of forty dollars to allow them to increase production in 2017 of more than ten percent.
Said Jim Volcker, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer Wightnj Petroleum Corp, the largest producer in the Basin Bakken in North Dakota to analysts competition that the company would stop cracking in the new wells by the end of March, but it "will examine the completion of some of those wells," If the oil reached to between $ 40 and $ 45 a barrel. Since less than a year when the company was still in spending mode Volcker said it may use more drilling rigs if US crude reached $ 70.
Despite the cautious comments taint it is a reminder that the big drop in the cost of the rapid increase in US shale oil hula efficiency - which was seen as the beginning of the competitors as a high cost - a marginal sector into a major player and a thorn in the side of senior OPEC producers.
And it contributes to decline in the number of drilling rigs currently in calming the decline in oil prices by cutting production, but may also limit any rise quickly shift to increase production as soon as prices start to recover from current levels just above $ 30.
Said John Kilduff partner at Capital Aging The risk of shale oil recovery "puts a ceiling on oil prices." He continued, "If there are some optimistic forecasts of demand or the economy Vchristolun anticipate the curve and increase production quickly."
Some producers already begun hedge in the production of the future, where are trading in oil prices in 2017 to near $ 45 a barrel, which could limit any cut production in the future.
While it was the worst collapse in oil prices since the eighties death sentence on a large number of shale oil producers, it also hurry to cut cost and improve the hydraulic fracturing techniques that are still under development.
For example, it reduced Hess Corp., which pumps barrels and one of every 15 barrels of crude North Dakota cost of the new oil well in the Bakken about 28 percent last year.
What in the past contributes to inflate profit margins is now a key factor in staying in what Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi last week, the harsh reality of the global oil market, where the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries no longer Petroleum willing to reduce supplies to support prices.
Despite the warning Deloitte accounting and consulting the third shale oil producers in the United States may face bankruptcy, the top producers say their ambition goes beyond outperform local competitors.
Bill Thomas, chairman Aa.oo.ja Resources Management, said on Friday "is no longer enough to be lower cost producers in the field of oil shale in the United States. Aa.oo.ja aims to become an oil producer, more competitive and less expensive on the global market."
Thomas did not specify the price at which stimulate Aa.oo.ja to increase production this year, but said that his company has "a stockpile privileged" in 3200 is a well that could generate revenues of 30 percent or more if the price of oil reached $ 40.
Apache Corp. expects production to fall about 11 percent this year, but said it may be able to return to the levels of production in North America in 2015 if the price of a barrel of oil reached $ 45 a barrel on average this year.
The producers of shale oil can move quickly, partly because of the large number of wells that are already drilled and awaiting only the crushing operations until oil is flowing from them.
The number of those wells, 945 wells in North Dakota - the first area that has seen oil shale boom in the United States - in December, compared with 585 wells in the middle of 2014, when prices peaked, according to the latest data available from the Department of Mineral Resources. Those numbers are growing with the continuation of companies such as Whiting in the pits, but stop at Altxeir.oihdhir stage some of the cracker in the wells is completed may allow increased supplies in the short term only in terms of sustainable increase requires the drilling of new wells at a higher cost and then higher levels of prices.
Said Carl Larry, director of business development for oil and gas at Frost & Sullivan, "it would take prices to $ 55 to see the plans for a new production."
The mystery still surrounds whether prices would reach $ 40 a barrel soon or not. Morgan Stanley and ANZ expects average prices at the minimum range of 30 to 40 dollars a barrel for the whole year.
Analysts warned that the resumption of drilling at a rapid pace may face difficulties after the companies laid off thousands of workers and stopped the run for more than three-quarters of platforms since late 2014.
John Hess, CEO of Hess Corp., said in an interview with Reuters last week that American companies operating in short courses, where it takes up to a year to stop or resume production.
Even those who have followed the rise and fall of the previous oil cycles are not sure what will happen as soon as the oil price recovery was not present in the shale former senior recovery a decade ago.
Said Daryl holic vice president of American wild fields with Anadarko Petroleum Corp. "We have some concern this time because of the active ingredient we have not seen before." jh