Appearance of Mohammed Saleh *: Features political economy of the conflict in Iraq

Appearance of Mohammed Saleh *: Features political economy of the conflict in Iraq




07/21/20140



Live geo-political Iraq since June 10, 2014 until today to displays of military and military operations, extensive and intensive in the face of the forces of a foreign terrorist occupied a number of cities and towns in the west and north-west Iraq, enhanced job and assigning groups of local armed vague in its alliance with the terrorist forces. The solution Allojcetk military combat operations and replace the requirements of stability and continuation of the construction and economic activity and civil production processes and marketing associated with it and along the area of ​​the territory of the Republic of Iraq has increased to 35% of it.
While exposed transport hubs, procurement and supply of goods and supplies different and the movement of people to and from out of the country by road to stumble and Outage especially axes western and northern and north-western ones, are vulnerable at the same time the nation's supply and Mistordath partners Iraq trade from neighboring countries or through transit (Turanci), including paralysis or stop, especially countries: Syria, Jordan and Turkey. To hide that economic activity, if any, today, in the areas of conflict with terrorism, (or which are under the concept of occupation now), does not count in the economic calculations of national income, but is part of the black economy, or illegal.
Estimates of primary indicate that there is a deterioration in the components of GDP in those areas is estimated at 10% of the value of gross domestic product in question annually,
which became part of the economy of illegal and outside the national accounts or national income accounts, not to mention the devastation that happened in the national wealth of infrastructure The different components of the material productive capitalism, eventually become broken or non-functional or stolen Aotan control terrorism now. If the size of the population who are below the poverty line is estimated at 19% by the tenth of June in the whole of Iraq, the poverty line has increased today, touching the ratio of not less than 30% of the country's population or more, and enhances the presence of a million and a half immigrants from the provinces subject of conflict with terrorism, in addition to them, the suffering of the local people themselves who face terrorism in various ways, and those who cut off their means of civilian life and the basics of life all ground, such as water, health, medicine, education, electricity and work product of income, social stability and the lack of standards of freedom and expression and the force of law.
To hide the actual unemployment indicators, which amounted to 12% by the tenth of June rose today according to the preliminary estimate to 20%, or perhaps more due to the cessation of economic activity in the five provinces constitute today the scene of military operations. Note that the actual unemployment among young people in total may rise to 38% at the present time instead of 24-28%, as it was destined.
Became the economies of southern and central Iraq today, (except Kurdistan), as an economic power only detent reins of the macroeconomic situation and the leverage in the country. The safety of oil operations and increase production capacity to export crude oil from fields in the south and the local agricultural production relatively stable there, as well as the expansion of the supply of goods and supplies various travels overland Obhra across lanes south and southeast of the country, has contributed significantly to economic stability to Iraq. As the height of Iraq's total exports of crude oil from fields in the south to about two million nine hundred thousand barrels per day (2.9 million barrels / day), will strengthen Iraq's revenues and financial resources, regardless of whether it hit the Kirkuk oil fields of surprises entered after the tenth of June within the ongoing dispute between the center and the region, (Kurdistan region).

Consequently, the production of oil fields in Kirkuk, amounting to 400 000 barrels per day (on average intended for export), in addition to the 400 000 barrels per day Tsdermn fields of Kurdistan and according to the indicators of the budget in 2014, the (non-approved), has put fiscal policy and federal budget bill before another new challenge. Instead of settling the dispute on revenues amounting to 16 billion dollars annually on the value of the export of crude oil fields of Kurdistan in the budget of the year 2014, it will evolve to the subject added 16 billion dollars of other annually in the list of differences of oil between the center and the region in the event of export Kirkuk oil within the export basket of crudes Kurdistan in the future.

The war economy in its current state, which was costing an extra daily expenses on the country's budget by about 5-6 million dollars before the events of last June 10, has been left without a doubt in a different position in the level of carrying the burden of confronting terrorism after June 10, which has become a daily cost the country four times a patchwork bear the expenses of the extra day before the tenth of June and required by today's theater Alamlilt requirements attribution, processing and packaging of war. We note that the standard of living in the country has not been affected, particularly in geopolitical safe and away from the course of the war, and direct armed confrontation with terrorism. The policy of the open door in an offering of surplus goods, supplies and services to the Iraqi market, Kmistordat funded by oil revenues, has become a phenomenon rooted in the economic life of Iraq. The import of consumables of different origins and strongly competitive Mnascie cheap, has made a record annual consumer price index (a measure of inflation), recorded a low level of cases Allatdkhm but provided a high degree of stability Leaning toward recession any stability accompanied by unemployment, which is raising fears of a quasi-recession economic rents in an incubator, dense financial resources, weak production and severe unemployment. After that the total annual inflation calculated in April of this year, a low rate not exceeding, (1 and four percent), accompanied by the proportion of actual unemployment at about 12%, we find at the same time, paradoxically, that the record annual consumer prices in the U.S. United States has been recorded in the month of Maes himself, (1 and seven percent), and the unemployment rate of about 6% (odd), which means that the U.S. economy has started to leave the stage of recession towards stability at a time under the Iraqi economy immersed condition stabilizing price is unique with tendency to depression because of high unemployment. And the fact that Iraq is located within the area of ​​the U.S. dollar, the real value of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate touched the top of the nominal exchange rate of the dinar advertiser. And that what he has done the central bank monetary policy, (lax), by reducing the interest rates on deposit accounts has to 1%, a move Saeb to assign credit operations that are supportive of the development and investment real, but although it has contradicted the central bank itself by announcing a deflationary policy, ( radical), that sale Maisawi (5) trillion dinars of remittances mentioned bank to withdraw cash actress banking excess cash reserves, which is counting contradictory contradictory,, in the conduct of monetary policy itself is identical procedures at one time!! And this must stop open market operations nature deflationary Judge selling remittances Central Bank of the Iraqi dinar, as a policy militant deflationary designed to control the levels of liquidity, which if achieved actually will influence the withdrawal of at least 13-15% of the cash-basis rolling in the banking market , in addition to the deflationary effects of the amount in the continuing effectiveness of the auction sale of foreign currency and its role in the sterilization of liquidity in dinars and absorbed in a super day. Which will maximize the strength of the economic downturn and the continuing recession.

Reflected the events of the post-June 10, 2014 on the state of the national economy and the expectations it generated though slight traces in high levels of inflation, which is due mostly to the state of the sudden demand for food and fuel inflationary expectations and creating temporary. In the month of Maes past, (and before the outbreak of terrorist acts on a large scale), the country has seen, for example, a decline seriously in paragraph foodstuffs, (which compose weighing in paragraphs index of consumer prices, Iraq, (as a measure of inflation), about 30% of paragraphs total So the record., but came military events and operations in the face of terrorism and its impact on the actions of the forces of the local market with a clear impact, as it came under paragraph nutrients to the sudden rise in the month of June compared with Maes of the current year by about more than (positive 3%), while witnessed the same paragraph, in the month of Maes compared to April last drop Mphaja reached (minus 5%). and objective reasons and behavioral caused by the events of June 10, the individuals have just demand extra food rechargeable storage and create additional spending on the available supply. while, felt economic policy position and proceeded to meet the demand on UHF food by expanding the sources of import and easing standards and controls the supply of commodity and sufficiency certificate of origin from the ports of import different. knowing that the axes south and east, and the two have been be introduced has helped the rapid flow of goods from neighboring countries and contributed to the absorption of the wave of demand pleased to supply food stocks and off, as well as cancel, (calendar), agricultural summer season imposed on the supply of many agricultural commodities competition of the domestic product and flowing from neighboring countries and about 15 product.

Although it has increased the annual inflation measured in the month of June to reach 2-odd percent instead of 1-odd percent, which means that the national economy is still in a circle high stability even time, but still accompanied by today's unemployment coercive additional generated by the occupation of terrorism for more than a province in simultaneously and disrupted economic activity.

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