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[size=30]A report analyzing the repercussions of the Ukrainian crisis on the Middle East and the Arab world
[ltr]2022.02.25 - 14:10[/ltr]
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[ltr]2022.02.25 - 14:10[/ltr]
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A press report sheds light on the repercussions of the Ukrainian crisis on the Middle East and the Arab world, while pointing to the Arab countries most affected by the war that Russia launched against Ukraine.
The report, published by Raseef22 and followed by Nass (February 25, 2022), stated that “war-torn Libya and Syria are among the first countries to be directly affected by an open military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and Moscow has two military bases in them. ".
He pointed out that "the Russian invasion of Ukraine will deliver shocking waves to the Arab countries that import wheat and weapons from Moscow and Kiev, and even the countries where there are Russian bases, as they may find themselves a victim of the conflict if it escalates into a larger confrontation with the West. On the other hand, the Arab Gulf states may benefit From the rise in energy prices, which will bring huge financial gains to it, in addition to the fact that it is expected to take Russia’s share in the Western market, which will most likely enable it to restore its image and importance in the West.
Below is the full text of the report:
It is likely that the Russian war on Ukraine will have repercussions not limited to Europe alone, but will have significant repercussions on the Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine will send shock waves to Arab countries that import wheat and weapons from Moscow and Kiev, and even countries with Russian bases, as they may find themselves victims of the conflict if it escalates into a larger confrontation with the West. On the other hand, the Arab Gulf states may benefit from high energy prices, which will bring them huge financial gains, in addition to the fact that it is expected to take Russia's share in the Western market, which will likely enable it to restore its image and importance in the West.
military recruitment
War-torn Libya and Syria are among the first countries to be directly affected by an open military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and Moscow has two military bases in them. "Russia maintains the Jufra air base, which can be used immediately in the event of a war with Ukraine," Sami Hamdi, managing director of International Interest, a global risk and intelligence firm in London, told German radio.
"We may suddenly see a new international readiness to deal with the military commander in eastern Libya, Khalifa Haftar, who was cold regarding Washington and other European powers in the past," Hamdi added.
Italian political analyst Cinzia Bianco indicated to German radio that Moscow might try to pressure Europe through a new wave of refugees coming from Libya, similar to what happened on the border between Belarus and Poland.
Russia also has a seaport and an air base in Tartus in Syria, where it has a close ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has recognized the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
In Syria, Russia and Israel drew up an agreement that allowed Tel Aviv to launch strikes on Iranian assets. Hamdi said that "Israel may become the biggest loser in any war between Russia and the United States, because it will have to take sides in a way that undermines any gains it made in Syria."
arms deals
US lawmakers have suggested that Russia could be removed from the SWIFT system, a network that connects thousands of financial institutions around the world. This step will deprive Russia of dealing in dollars with the countries of the world. Accordingly, a number of Arab countries that have concluded agreements, whether to purchase weapons or spare parts for their Russian weapons, or to build nuclear plants such as the Dabaa plant in Egypt, or to export goods to Moscow, may be disrupted and shrink, As well as the influx of tourists.
In this context, Atef Abdel-Gawad, a political and academic analyst at George Washington University, told Raseef22, "The Arab countries will not be able to complete their deals with Russia, especially the military, because they depend on the payment and receipt of any money on the Western Swift transfer network."
He added, "It will be difficult to find another way, except in rare cases in which Russia depends on a huge reserve of hard currency that it has collected specifically to bypass the financial boycott, and the value of this reserve is about 80 billion dollars, which will quickly deplete over time."
wheat and the consequences
Ukraine and Russia export 23 percent of global wheat exports, global food prices are already near their highest levels in ten years, and the two countries' market share means any export disruption could cause grain prices to rise.
A report published by the Middle East Institute in Washington stated that "Ukraine exports 95% of its grain through the Black Sea, and more than 50% of its wheat exports went to the Middle East and North Africa in 2020," and therefore any disruption would have "serious consequences." on food security in these countries.
It is estimated that Lebanon and Libya import about 40% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine, Yemen about 20%, and Egypt about 80%.
Julian Barnesdassi, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Affairs, said the impact on the Middle East could be much worse than that of other countries. He told CNN: "It is clear that fears of conflict between two of the world's largest suppliers will have some impact on prices, when there is already a sense of inferiority."
In the long run, the US network said that this shortfall may exacerbate the already dire food security situation in some countries in the region. Nearly 69 million people in the Middle East and North Africa are undernourished, according to a 2020 United Nations report, accounting for about 9% of the global total shortage, many of which are in conflict-torn countries.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) indicated that hunger has been on the rise since 2014 in the region, in light of the deterioration of livelihoods after the Arab Spring uprisings, and again after the Corona pandemic. The organization estimated the prevalence of undernourishment in the region in 2020 at 15.8%, compared to the global average of 9.9%.
Analysts told CNN that countries and donors may be able to buy grain from other sources, but high prices could hamper a network of importers that is already underfunded.
For his part, former advisor to the Egyptian Ministry of Supply, Nader Noureddine, told CNN: "This may be a new lesson (for Arab countries), that we must balance purchases, so that we can always diversify and secure supplies permanently if there are conflicts."
Financial gain and image improvement
In a related context, Atef Abdel Gawad said, "Oil prices exceeded $100 a barrel, and this is a benefit for the Gulf countries, especially Qatar, the world's largest gas producer after the United States, but the benefit to the Gulf countries as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis also brings the Gulf countries into a dilemma." It requires a delicate balance on its part in managing its relations between Russia and the West."
Abdul-Gawad added: "The Gulf countries have recently entered into stronger relations with Russia, and some of them decided to conclude Russian arms deals. How do these countries benefit financially without angering Moscow? This is a matter that requires skill in managing relations with Russia. Likewise, how do you satisfy these countries? Russia without angering the West? This is a very sensitive issue, especially since the Gulf countries are still dependent on the West to protect their security."
According to a report by the Middle East Institute in Washington, Qatar can provide more gas to Europe, in light of its plan to expand its capacity to produce natural gas, which helps Doha improve its image and chances of signing long-term contracts with European buyers. Egypt has also increased its supply of natural gas to Europe, and Algeria could provide an additional seven billion cubic meters annually to the European Union.
Oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, which have similar oil products to Russia, can also supply Europe with Russian-supplied oil. In 2021, these three countries' exports to the EU were three times less than Russia's.
The American report stated that this step could confirm the reputation of these countries, as reliable producers, and could secure long-term contracts in the European oil market at the expense of Russia's share in it, which would decline if Russian banks and companies were subjected to sanctions.
For his part, Saudi journalist Adel Al-Humaidan said that oil prices rose even before the outbreak of the crisis, and they are already achieving greater gains now, but it is unlikely that the Gulf countries would take sides with the West against Russia.
Al-Humaidan pointed out that the Gulf countries went through a crisis of confidence with the United States during the rule of former President Barack Obama, and this is what prompts them not to take sides against Russia, but they will work to maintain a balance in prices in respect of their international commitments.
Atef suggested the possibility of the collapse of “OPEC Plus”, the non-OPEC oil producing countries led by Russia, if Moscow continues to be isolated from the SWIFT system for remittances, stressing that OPEC Plus will not withstand the deterioration of Russian exports even if China compensates Russia’s losses, and the blame will not be placed On Saudi Arabia or OPEC in its collapse.
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The report, published by Raseef22 and followed by Nass (February 25, 2022), stated that “war-torn Libya and Syria are among the first countries to be directly affected by an open military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and Moscow has two military bases in them. ".
He pointed out that "the Russian invasion of Ukraine will deliver shocking waves to the Arab countries that import wheat and weapons from Moscow and Kiev, and even the countries where there are Russian bases, as they may find themselves a victim of the conflict if it escalates into a larger confrontation with the West. On the other hand, the Arab Gulf states may benefit From the rise in energy prices, which will bring huge financial gains to it, in addition to the fact that it is expected to take Russia’s share in the Western market, which will most likely enable it to restore its image and importance in the West.
Below is the full text of the report:
It is likely that the Russian war on Ukraine will have repercussions not limited to Europe alone, but will have significant repercussions on the Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine will send shock waves to Arab countries that import wheat and weapons from Moscow and Kiev, and even countries with Russian bases, as they may find themselves victims of the conflict if it escalates into a larger confrontation with the West. On the other hand, the Arab Gulf states may benefit from high energy prices, which will bring them huge financial gains, in addition to the fact that it is expected to take Russia's share in the Western market, which will likely enable it to restore its image and importance in the West.
military recruitment
War-torn Libya and Syria are among the first countries to be directly affected by an open military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and Moscow has two military bases in them. "Russia maintains the Jufra air base, which can be used immediately in the event of a war with Ukraine," Sami Hamdi, managing director of International Interest, a global risk and intelligence firm in London, told German radio.
"We may suddenly see a new international readiness to deal with the military commander in eastern Libya, Khalifa Haftar, who was cold regarding Washington and other European powers in the past," Hamdi added.
Italian political analyst Cinzia Bianco indicated to German radio that Moscow might try to pressure Europe through a new wave of refugees coming from Libya, similar to what happened on the border between Belarus and Poland.
Russia also has a seaport and an air base in Tartus in Syria, where it has a close ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has recognized the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
In Syria, Russia and Israel drew up an agreement that allowed Tel Aviv to launch strikes on Iranian assets. Hamdi said that "Israel may become the biggest loser in any war between Russia and the United States, because it will have to take sides in a way that undermines any gains it made in Syria."
arms deals
US lawmakers have suggested that Russia could be removed from the SWIFT system, a network that connects thousands of financial institutions around the world. This step will deprive Russia of dealing in dollars with the countries of the world. Accordingly, a number of Arab countries that have concluded agreements, whether to purchase weapons or spare parts for their Russian weapons, or to build nuclear plants such as the Dabaa plant in Egypt, or to export goods to Moscow, may be disrupted and shrink, As well as the influx of tourists.
In this context, Atef Abdel-Gawad, a political and academic analyst at George Washington University, told Raseef22, "The Arab countries will not be able to complete their deals with Russia, especially the military, because they depend on the payment and receipt of any money on the Western Swift transfer network."
He added, "It will be difficult to find another way, except in rare cases in which Russia depends on a huge reserve of hard currency that it has collected specifically to bypass the financial boycott, and the value of this reserve is about 80 billion dollars, which will quickly deplete over time."
wheat and the consequences
Ukraine and Russia export 23 percent of global wheat exports, global food prices are already near their highest levels in ten years, and the two countries' market share means any export disruption could cause grain prices to rise.
A report published by the Middle East Institute in Washington stated that "Ukraine exports 95% of its grain through the Black Sea, and more than 50% of its wheat exports went to the Middle East and North Africa in 2020," and therefore any disruption would have "serious consequences." on food security in these countries.
It is estimated that Lebanon and Libya import about 40% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine, Yemen about 20%, and Egypt about 80%.
Julian Barnesdassi, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Affairs, said the impact on the Middle East could be much worse than that of other countries. He told CNN: "It is clear that fears of conflict between two of the world's largest suppliers will have some impact on prices, when there is already a sense of inferiority."
In the long run, the US network said that this shortfall may exacerbate the already dire food security situation in some countries in the region. Nearly 69 million people in the Middle East and North Africa are undernourished, according to a 2020 United Nations report, accounting for about 9% of the global total shortage, many of which are in conflict-torn countries.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) indicated that hunger has been on the rise since 2014 in the region, in light of the deterioration of livelihoods after the Arab Spring uprisings, and again after the Corona pandemic. The organization estimated the prevalence of undernourishment in the region in 2020 at 15.8%, compared to the global average of 9.9%.
Analysts told CNN that countries and donors may be able to buy grain from other sources, but high prices could hamper a network of importers that is already underfunded.
For his part, former advisor to the Egyptian Ministry of Supply, Nader Noureddine, told CNN: "This may be a new lesson (for Arab countries), that we must balance purchases, so that we can always diversify and secure supplies permanently if there are conflicts."
Financial gain and image improvement
In a related context, Atef Abdel Gawad said, "Oil prices exceeded $100 a barrel, and this is a benefit for the Gulf countries, especially Qatar, the world's largest gas producer after the United States, but the benefit to the Gulf countries as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis also brings the Gulf countries into a dilemma." It requires a delicate balance on its part in managing its relations between Russia and the West."
Abdul-Gawad added: "The Gulf countries have recently entered into stronger relations with Russia, and some of them decided to conclude Russian arms deals. How do these countries benefit financially without angering Moscow? This is a matter that requires skill in managing relations with Russia. Likewise, how do you satisfy these countries? Russia without angering the West? This is a very sensitive issue, especially since the Gulf countries are still dependent on the West to protect their security."
According to a report by the Middle East Institute in Washington, Qatar can provide more gas to Europe, in light of its plan to expand its capacity to produce natural gas, which helps Doha improve its image and chances of signing long-term contracts with European buyers. Egypt has also increased its supply of natural gas to Europe, and Algeria could provide an additional seven billion cubic meters annually to the European Union.
Oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, which have similar oil products to Russia, can also supply Europe with Russian-supplied oil. In 2021, these three countries' exports to the EU were three times less than Russia's.
The American report stated that this step could confirm the reputation of these countries, as reliable producers, and could secure long-term contracts in the European oil market at the expense of Russia's share in it, which would decline if Russian banks and companies were subjected to sanctions.
For his part, Saudi journalist Adel Al-Humaidan said that oil prices rose even before the outbreak of the crisis, and they are already achieving greater gains now, but it is unlikely that the Gulf countries would take sides with the West against Russia.
Al-Humaidan pointed out that the Gulf countries went through a crisis of confidence with the United States during the rule of former President Barack Obama, and this is what prompts them not to take sides against Russia, but they will work to maintain a balance in prices in respect of their international commitments.
Atef suggested the possibility of the collapse of “OPEC Plus”, the non-OPEC oil producing countries led by Russia, if Moscow continues to be isolated from the SWIFT system for remittances, stressing that OPEC Plus will not withstand the deterioration of Russian exports even if China compensates Russia’s losses, and the blame will not be placed On Saudi Arabia or OPEC in its collapse.
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