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[size=35][size=35]In numbers... revealing the planned revenues in the "triennial" budget and the impact of lower oil prices[/size]
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2023-03-16 | 03:30
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Alsumaria News - A report
The head of the Future Iraq Foundation for Economic Studies and Consultations, Manar Al-Obeidi, said that the planned revenues in the 2023 budget may not be realized as a result of several factors.
Al-Obeidi stated in his post, which was followed by Al-Sumaria News, that "the total revenues amounting to 136 trillion dinars resulted from the following:
* 101 trillion at a rate similar to the rates of previous years of oil sales.
* 13 trillion dinars for oil[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]may not be received.
* 7 trillion dinars for added oil sales above the normal rate may not be achieved.
* 17 trillion non-oil revenues, of which only 7 trillion dinars may be achieved, which is the annual average for previous years.
He added that "the planned revenues of 136 trillion may not actually achieve more than 108 trillion," noting that "the planned deficit is 60 trillion dinars, and may reach 90 trillion dinars if the revenues are not achieved."
He continued, "The deficit-to-GDP ratio in the financial management law should not exceed 3%, meaning it should not exceed 11 trillion Iraqi dinars, just as the current planned deficit-to-GDP ratio is 16%, and the deficit-to-GDP ratio is 24%." ".
And the head of the Iraq Future Foundation for Studies and Economic Consultations stated that "every drop in the price of oil by one dollar costs revenues 1.5 trillion Iraqi dinars, and the drop in the price of oil to the rate of 60 dollars means a loss of revenues by 15 trillion dinars, which will increase the deficit gap."
How does the drop in oil prices affect the "triennial" budget?
To that revealed the economist[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/3517594793/%D9%86%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%84 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%85%D9%8A/ar/]Nabil Al-Marsoumi[/url]On the decline in oil prices on the "trilateral" budget, where he said, that[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]Without all the oil-producing countries, it lacks a sovereign fund that could be a buffer in cases of oil prices falling below their normal levels.
Al-Marsoumi mentioned it in his post, which I followed[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/133473/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9 %D9%86%D9%8A%D9%88%D8%B2/ar/]Alsumaria News[/url]The price of Brent crude fell to 73 dollars a barrel due to a bank collapse[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/48810/%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%88%D9%86 %D9%81%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]Silicon Valley[/url]Adding to concerns about the risks other banks face from sharp interest rate increases by the US central bank over the past year that have led to a sharp drop in fuel demand caused by large-scale downsizing by technology companies, along with their staff cutting travel expenses as That many emerging companies in the technology sector were seen as potential consumers of oil and gas in the future, as their collapse led to a decrease in expectations related to future oil demand growth, and fears were reinforced by the failure of “Credit Suisse”, the second largest bank in Switzerland. The outbreak of a new global financial crisis, similar to the one that occurred in 2007-2008, which reflected negatively on European and American stocks,”
he added, “in addition to the repercussions of a bank crisis.”[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/48810/%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%88%D9%86 %D9%81%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]Silicon Valley[/url]Oil prices are also under pressure due to signs that the Chinese economy is recovering at a slower pace than expected despite the lifting of its strict restrictions related to the pandemic, as well as US statements about the possibility of setting a higher ceiling for the price of Saudi oil and the rise in US oil stocks
. International oil prices have a clear impact on the Iraqi budget, which has adopted an unreserved price, which is 70 dollars per barrel, which is the highest among the Gulf budgets. Any drop in the selling price of Iraqi oil by one dollar from the price estimated in the budget would reduce oil revenues by about 1.660 trillion dinars, which will exacerbate the budget deficit. And it magnifies the internal and external debts in particular," pointing out that "[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]Without all the oil-producing countries, it lacks a sovereign fund that could be a buffer in cases of oil prices falling below their natural levels.”
* Fears of oil prices
, the economist said.[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/3517594793/%D9%86%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%84 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%85%D9%8A/ar/]Nabil Al-Marsoumi[/url]He said that if the oil price drops to about $60 a barrel, then the oil revenues will suffice to cover only the two paragraphs of employee salaries and social welfare.
He mentioned it in his post[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/133473/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9 %D9%86%D9%8A%D9%88%D8%B2/ar/]Alsumaria News[/url]“The budget will enter the critical path if the price of Brent crude falls to about $60 a barrel, as the oil revenues will then be sufficient to cover only the two paragraphs of employee salaries and social care, which amount to more than 87 trillion dinars in the 2023 budget. There is no exact figure on the number of employees in
the[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]However, according to the estimates of specialists, it ranges between 3.5 to 4 million employees, but the former Minister of Finance, Ali Allawi, said in the middle of last year, “The latest government statistics of the number of those who receive salaries from the state in various segments amounts to about seven million employees in the latest data for[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/3238106360/%D9%88%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9/ar/]Ministry of Finance[/url]".
* Budget numbers
and chief disclosure[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/1122135457/%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D8%B2%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1/ar/]Council of Ministers[/url] [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/1199849658/%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%AF %D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A/ar/]Mohamed Shiaa Al-Sudani[/url]At the budget conference, that 'territory share[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]In the budget, it amounts to 12.6, and the total budget amounted to 197 trillion and 828 billion dinars, as follows: the operating budget amounts to more than 150 trillion dinars, the investment budget is more than 47 trillion, and the budget deficit amounts to 63 trillion dinars
. One trillion dinars,” stressing that “oil revenues amount to more than 117 trillion dinars based on the price of oil at $70, and non-oil revenues amount to more than 17 trillion dinars.” In the field of numbers, Al-Sudani mentioned the following: * The total budget is more
than
197 One trillion dinars
* The operating budget is more than 150 trillion dinars
* The investment budget is more than 47 trillion
* The budget deficit is 63 trillion dinars
* Total revenues are more than 134 trillion dinars
* Oil revenues amount to more than 117 trillion dinars based on the price of oil at 70 dollars
* Non-oil revenues amount to more than 17 trillion dinars
* The share of the region[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]In the budget, it amounts to 12.6 percent
* More than 12 trillion dinars of indebtedness will be paid this year
* Petrodollars will be two trillion dinars distributed among the governorates
* The development of regions in the budget will be 2.5 trillion dinars
* 400 billion dinars have been added to small project loans in the Ministry of Labor
* Increase in capital The Industrial Bank financed 400 billion dinars to support the private sector
* An increase in some allocations, including medicines, by 300 billion dinars, to become more than a trillion
* Allocating one trillion dinars for a draft law[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/168929522/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82/ar/]Iraq Fund[/url]For Development * It is planned
to export 3.5 million barrels annually
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]During the current year, 3.5 million barrels were exported annually, according to what was approved by the Sudanese government in its budget for the current year.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]It is the second largest oil producer in OPEC, and the country relies on revenues from selling crude to cover about 95% of its expenses.
The price of a barrel of oil is about $70 per barrel in the budget approved by the government last Monday, with a total proposed expenditure of 197.8 trillion dinars ($152.2 billion), according to Prime Minister Muhammad al-Sudani, who indicated that this budget will be repeated during the next two years as well.
The fiscal deficit amounts to 63 trillion dinars ($48.5 billion), according to the official government statement.
And while counting[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]An oil exporter, it imports the main oil derivatives, such as gasoline, gas oil and white oil. According to the “SOMO” company, more than 5 million tons of oil derivatives were imported last year, at a value of $5.3 billion, compared to 4.7 million tons, at a value of $3.3 billion, in 2021. Gasoline was the most imported, at a value of $3.8 billion, followed by gas oil with more from $1.2 billion.
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[size=35][size=35]In numbers... revealing the planned revenues in the "triennial" budget and the impact of lower oil prices[/size]
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Economy
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2023-03-16 | 03:30
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969 views
Alsumaria News - A report
after the Council of Ministers' approval of a "triple" budget extending until 2025, an expert on economic affairs revealed the planned revenues in the budget, and another warned of the impact of lower oil prices in global markets, which in turn will incur economic losses for Iraq more than 1.5 trillion One dinar for every one dollar in case of decline.
The head of the Future Iraq Foundation for Economic Studies and Consultations, Manar Al-Obeidi, said that the planned revenues in the 2023 budget may not be realized as a result of several factors.
Al-Obeidi stated in his post, which was followed by Al-Sumaria News, that "the total revenues amounting to 136 trillion dinars resulted from the following:
* 101 trillion at a rate similar to the rates of previous years of oil sales.
* 13 trillion dinars for oil[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]may not be received.
* 7 trillion dinars for added oil sales above the normal rate may not be achieved.
* 17 trillion non-oil revenues, of which only 7 trillion dinars may be achieved, which is the annual average for previous years.
He added that "the planned revenues of 136 trillion may not actually achieve more than 108 trillion," noting that "the planned deficit is 60 trillion dinars, and may reach 90 trillion dinars if the revenues are not achieved."
He continued, "The deficit-to-GDP ratio in the financial management law should not exceed 3%, meaning it should not exceed 11 trillion Iraqi dinars, just as the current planned deficit-to-GDP ratio is 16%, and the deficit-to-GDP ratio is 24%." ".
And the head of the Iraq Future Foundation for Studies and Economic Consultations stated that "every drop in the price of oil by one dollar costs revenues 1.5 trillion Iraqi dinars, and the drop in the price of oil to the rate of 60 dollars means a loss of revenues by 15 trillion dinars, which will increase the deficit gap."
How does the drop in oil prices affect the "triennial" budget?
To that revealed the economist[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/3517594793/%D9%86%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%84 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%85%D9%8A/ar/]Nabil Al-Marsoumi[/url]On the decline in oil prices on the "trilateral" budget, where he said, that[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]Without all the oil-producing countries, it lacks a sovereign fund that could be a buffer in cases of oil prices falling below their normal levels.
Al-Marsoumi mentioned it in his post, which I followed[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/133473/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9 %D9%86%D9%8A%D9%88%D8%B2/ar/]Alsumaria News[/url]The price of Brent crude fell to 73 dollars a barrel due to a bank collapse[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/48810/%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%88%D9%86 %D9%81%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]Silicon Valley[/url]Adding to concerns about the risks other banks face from sharp interest rate increases by the US central bank over the past year that have led to a sharp drop in fuel demand caused by large-scale downsizing by technology companies, along with their staff cutting travel expenses as That many emerging companies in the technology sector were seen as potential consumers of oil and gas in the future, as their collapse led to a decrease in expectations related to future oil demand growth, and fears were reinforced by the failure of “Credit Suisse”, the second largest bank in Switzerland. The outbreak of a new global financial crisis, similar to the one that occurred in 2007-2008, which reflected negatively on European and American stocks,”
he added, “in addition to the repercussions of a bank crisis.”[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/48810/%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%88%D9%86 %D9%81%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]Silicon Valley[/url]Oil prices are also under pressure due to signs that the Chinese economy is recovering at a slower pace than expected despite the lifting of its strict restrictions related to the pandemic, as well as US statements about the possibility of setting a higher ceiling for the price of Saudi oil and the rise in US oil stocks
. International oil prices have a clear impact on the Iraqi budget, which has adopted an unreserved price, which is 70 dollars per barrel, which is the highest among the Gulf budgets. Any drop in the selling price of Iraqi oil by one dollar from the price estimated in the budget would reduce oil revenues by about 1.660 trillion dinars, which will exacerbate the budget deficit. And it magnifies the internal and external debts in particular," pointing out that "[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]Without all the oil-producing countries, it lacks a sovereign fund that could be a buffer in cases of oil prices falling below their natural levels.”
* Fears of oil prices
, the economist said.[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/3517594793/%D9%86%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%84 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%85%D9%8A/ar/]Nabil Al-Marsoumi[/url]He said that if the oil price drops to about $60 a barrel, then the oil revenues will suffice to cover only the two paragraphs of employee salaries and social welfare.
He mentioned it in his post[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/133473/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9 %D9%86%D9%8A%D9%88%D8%B2/ar/]Alsumaria News[/url]“The budget will enter the critical path if the price of Brent crude falls to about $60 a barrel, as the oil revenues will then be sufficient to cover only the two paragraphs of employee salaries and social care, which amount to more than 87 trillion dinars in the 2023 budget. There is no exact figure on the number of employees in
the[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]However, according to the estimates of specialists, it ranges between 3.5 to 4 million employees, but the former Minister of Finance, Ali Allawi, said in the middle of last year, “The latest government statistics of the number of those who receive salaries from the state in various segments amounts to about seven million employees in the latest data for[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/3238106360/%D9%88%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9/ar/]Ministry of Finance[/url]".
* Budget numbers
and chief disclosure[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/1122135457/%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D8%B2%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1/ar/]Council of Ministers[/url] [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/1199849658/%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%AF %D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A/ar/]Mohamed Shiaa Al-Sudani[/url]At the budget conference, that 'territory share[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]In the budget, it amounts to 12.6, and the total budget amounted to 197 trillion and 828 billion dinars, as follows: the operating budget amounts to more than 150 trillion dinars, the investment budget is more than 47 trillion, and the budget deficit amounts to 63 trillion dinars
. One trillion dinars,” stressing that “oil revenues amount to more than 117 trillion dinars based on the price of oil at $70, and non-oil revenues amount to more than 17 trillion dinars.” In the field of numbers, Al-Sudani mentioned the following: * The total budget is more
than
197 One trillion dinars
* The operating budget is more than 150 trillion dinars
* The investment budget is more than 47 trillion
* The budget deficit is 63 trillion dinars
* Total revenues are more than 134 trillion dinars
* Oil revenues amount to more than 117 trillion dinars based on the price of oil at 70 dollars
* Non-oil revenues amount to more than 17 trillion dinars
* The share of the region[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]In the budget, it amounts to 12.6 percent
* More than 12 trillion dinars of indebtedness will be paid this year
* Petrodollars will be two trillion dinars distributed among the governorates
* The development of regions in the budget will be 2.5 trillion dinars
* 400 billion dinars have been added to small project loans in the Ministry of Labor
* Increase in capital The Industrial Bank financed 400 billion dinars to support the private sector
* An increase in some allocations, including medicines, by 300 billion dinars, to become more than a trillion
* Allocating one trillion dinars for a draft law[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/168929522/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82/ar/]Iraq Fund[/url]For Development * It is planned
to export 3.5 million barrels annually
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]During the current year, 3.5 million barrels were exported annually, according to what was approved by the Sudanese government in its budget for the current year.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]It is the second largest oil producer in OPEC, and the country relies on revenues from selling crude to cover about 95% of its expenses.
The price of a barrel of oil is about $70 per barrel in the budget approved by the government last Monday, with a total proposed expenditure of 197.8 trillion dinars ($152.2 billion), according to Prime Minister Muhammad al-Sudani, who indicated that this budget will be repeated during the next two years as well.
The fiscal deficit amounts to 63 trillion dinars ($48.5 billion), according to the official government statement.
And while counting[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]An oil exporter, it imports the main oil derivatives, such as gasoline, gas oil and white oil. According to the “SOMO” company, more than 5 million tons of oil derivatives were imported last year, at a value of $5.3 billion, compared to 4.7 million tons, at a value of $3.3 billion, in 2021. Gasoline was the most imported, at a value of $3.8 billion, followed by gas oil with more from $1.2 billion.
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