Samir Al-Nusairi
By analyzing the efforts and measures taken by the government and the Central Bank to implement what is stated in the government program of the government of the Sudanese Prime Minister, which is the ninth government after the change in 2003, and which has been in charge for approximately one year and eight months, and which has been able to achieve an acceptable percentage of the specified goals in the field of economic, financial and banking reform, and which included many economic sectors and fields that occupied almost most of the axes of the government program, but without achieving comprehensive and radical economic reform that begins with financial and banking reform, the government’s complete goals and visions cannot be achieved. Therefore, the government program, as I see it, is a four-year strategy to achieve the revolution of economic, financial and banking reform.
The reason for launching this strategy is “because Iraq, after 20 years of economic failures, mismanagement of public funds due to administrative and financial corruption, the loss of a sound economic approach, political conflicts, and instability in the business environment, has led to reliance on oil as a primary source of revenues from the general budget, which constitutes approximately 93% of the total resources and approximately 60% of the gross domestic product, and the failure to activate the productive sectors that generate national income.”
Which led to "a blurred vision and lack of clarity in the decisions of the reform process of previous governments, except for some achievements made by the Central Bank of Iraq during the past years, in which it overcame the challenges of monetary policy at rates that enabled it to maintain the stability of the dinar exchange rate during the previous years despite the economic crises and challenges. Unfortunately, the fluctuation in exchange rates returned after the amendments made to the official exchange rate in 2020 and 2023 for many reasons, most notably the lack of control over financing foreign trade, non-compliance with international banking standards, the presence of unofficial border crossings, illegal inter-trade, and speculators in the foreign exchange market and their access to cash dollars allocated to travelers, which constitutes less than 10% of the supply for foreign transfers.
However, the Central Bank was able to build excellent foreign exchange reserves and maintain the general level of prices and the annual inflation rate at around 4% after it was 7.5% at the beginning of 2023. This confirms that the government and the Central Bank reviewed previous reform policies in 2023 through diagnosis and analysis and concluded that economic problems are the cause of most of Iraq's crises and that "the real solution to Iraq's crises is to work with a comprehensive change approach. I mean here drawing a strategic and executive roadmap to activate the procedures for economic, financial, banking, administrative and legislative reforms by adopting radical change for the coming years while benefiting from the experience of institutions and experts in the government and the private sector in confronting crises and activating the reform procedures of the government and the Central Bank, and according to the proposed vision that I put before the eyes of the Prime Minister, the Governor of the Central Bank and the Ministerial Council for the Economy, as follows:
First - Starting a systematic movement to draw a roadmap for economic, administrative and legal reform carried out by the Iraqi elites and economic, financial and banking competencies (government and private sector) by establishing the Supreme Economic Council, with the private sector in all economic sectors as a member thereof, and the private banking sector as a basic member of its membership as the financing and investment sector that must contribute to sustainable development. The reform movement should be based on several important economic pillars that adopt a new methodology for managing the economy and achieving the central goal of moving the economy from rentier to productive and from cash to digital, and activating the non-oil productive sectors to reach 30% of the general budget revenues in 2026, creating sustainable development, achieving diversity in resources, and developing economic and human structures for the sound construction of the national economy and building the preliminaries for the transition to a social market economy, provided that its recommendations, after approval by the Council of Ministers, are binding for implementation by the ministries, agencies and relevant bodies.
Second: Forming a (Central Follow-up Committee) linked to the Prime Minister’s Office to follow up on the implementation of decisions and has the authority to monitor and evaluate. It is formed under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister and includes a group of government advisors and experts and private sector experts.
Thirdly - Moving to central management of the economy so that the principle of (central planning and decentralization of implementation) is implemented. This means that the Supreme Council of the Economy will undertake the drawing up of plans and policies centrally and distribute their implementation to the ministries and specialized bodies within the government structure after approval by the Council of Ministers.
Fourth: Providing soft loans to finance small, medium and large projects in accordance with the national lending strategy recently launched by the Central Bank, and establishing a legal and institutional system to manage, develop and advance them, and issuing a special law for them. As well as issuing and amending the laws of the legal environment to regulate the economic process, which means issuing new laws instead of the laws issued in 2004, due to the changes that have occurred in the national economy during the past two decades.
Fifth: Activating investment in the agricultural, industrial, energy, tourism, services and housing sectors, as well as working to reform, develop and grow the banking sector through monetary policy applications and regulating the relationship and restrictions governing financial and monetary policies, in addition to the serious trend towards reforming the tax, financial and customs system. Addressing cases of failure to achieve the required growth rates in national income and overcoming the rise in unemployment and poverty rates.
Sixth: Developing a new methodology to overcome the challenges of instability in the financial and monetary systems. This means developing coordinated and balanced plans to overcome the challenges of monetary policy, the challenges of the deficit in non-oil revenue, and the deficit in the balance of payments and the trade balance.
Seventh: Accelerating the implementation of the e-government program and coordinating it with the electronic payment system, and the procedures for digital transformation in banking transactions, and focusing on activating the procedures of the Central Bank to implement the objectives of its third strategy, and following up on the decisions issued by the government regarding the use of electronic payment in commercial exchanges and banking operations, and establishing the National Company for Electronic Payment, which was announced by the Central Bank.
Eighth - Reviewing the banking market in Iraq towards activating the implementation of government decisions regarding government banks and the decisions of the Central Bank.
By classifying private banks, merging them, increasing their capital, and adopting them as solid international banks as correspondent banks, activating and accelerating joint procedures from the US Treasury regarding lifting sanctions and restrictions on the use of the US dollar in international transactions, and activating mechanisms, instructions, and controls for private banks’ commitment to complying with international banking standards.
Ninth: The necessity of having a representative of the private banking sector on the Board of Directors of the Central Bank and forming an advisory council for the Central Bank of experts and consultants working in the private banking sector and academics specializing in monetary policy in universities to study policies and programs and express an opinion on them before referring them to the Board of Directors to take the necessary decisions for implementation.
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From the sounds of Al-Nusairi's point of view there still need a lot of work to be done however, I do not think so. Much of what is in this piece is already in place, being used and or about ready to be made public imo.. We know they have a plan in place and underway with Ernst & Young in many things and the merging of the two largest banks in Iraq is not a new concept and is likely done and or about ready for to go live. It is even stated to be in an accelerated mode with regard to many reforms. imo ~ MM
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