Home
The GOP front-runner is falling short in hunt for loyal delegates, and it’s about to get worse.
By Kyle Cheney and Katie Glueck
04/27/16 12:12 AM EDT
Ted Cruz has notched local delegate wins in a series of states — from the Carolinas to Georgia to Minnesota — that portend bigger victories in state conventions over the next few weeks. | AP Photo
[list="story-frag-list layout-linear"]
[*]
[*]
[*]
[*]
[*]
[*]
[*]
[*]
[*]
[*]
[/list]
.cms-textAlign-left{text-align:left;}.cms-textAlign-center{text-align:center;}.cms-textAlign-right{text-align:right;}.cms-magazineStyles-smallCaps{font-variant:small-caps;}
Donald Trump has earned more than 9 million votes in the Republican primary and amassed a lead that puts him on the brink of clinching the GOP nomination. But in the shadow contest for the delegates to a contested national convention, he’s getting obliterated by Ted Cruz.
It’s halftime in the hustle for loyal convention delegates. By the weekend, more than 1,300 will have been elected in county, state or congressional district elections or selected by local Republican leaders. So far, Cruz has consistently dominated these contests, securing slots for hundreds of loyalists to the convention in Cleveland in July. Trump, on the other hand, has consistently flopped.
A Politico analysis suggests the mogul is headed for an even rougher second half, limiting his opportunities to survive a contested convention and dramatically raising the stakes of his quest to secure the nomination outright.
“It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure that one out,” said Stuart Jolly, Trump’s former field director, who resigned last week amid leadership changes. Jolly said his driving directive was always to win primaries to avoid having to compete in an establishment-driven delegate trench war.
“My goal was always — if you win the primary you don’t have to worry about the delegate stuff.”
Indeed, if Trump keeps winning primaries as polls suggest he will, he’ll secure enough delegates — 1,237 — to win the nomination without a contested convention. But it’s clearer than ever that this is his best — and perhaps only — shot at the nomination because of his ineffectiveness at lining up loyal delegates.
The evidence that Trump would struggle on subsequent ballots is mounting:
Texas GOP insiders say their home state senator is positioned to sweep the state’s enormous delegate haul. “I’d be very surprised if 155 out of the 155 weren’t for Cruz,” said Steve Munisteri, a former state party chairman who is unaligned. “I just don’t see how he doesn’t win all the delegates.”
In Missouri — a state Trump narrowly won — Cruz is poised to dominate local and state-level contests for 49 delegates. Insiders there say six of the state’s eight congressional districts, which award three delegates apiece, are tilted toward Cruz.
“At county caucuses, they were able to get more of their people in in many cases,” said Carl Bearden, who chaired Cruz’s campaign in Missouri. “Some Trump slates of delegates were elected as well. But overall it appears the Cruz camp has been able to motivate and activate supporters to come out to county caucuses to elect delegates to the next level of conventions.”
— In Iowa, where Cruz narrowly edged Trump on Feb. 1, a slate of 15 statewide delegates will include at least 11 Cruz backers, including Rep. Steve King, conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats and Cruz staffer Bryan English. The others – including Gov. Terry Branstad, Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds and Iowa House Speaker Linda Upmeyer – aren’t exactly Trump loyalists, though Branstad has also been critical of Cruz. (Cruz already won 11 of Iowa’s 12 local delegate slots).
— In Illinois, GOP sources close to the delegate process tell Politico that John Kasich supporters are most likely to dominate the 12 statewide delegate slots, even though they’ll be pledged to Trump on a first ballot. Those slots typically go to elected officials, party loyalists and donors. “There is a historical deference. People have to understand, for statewide officeholders there has been a historical preference given, but that has not been determined,” said Jack Dorgan, who is heading up the committee that will recommend the at-large delegates to the full convention in Peoria.
Illinois GOP Chairman Tim Schneider said that the at-large candidate selection would be transparent: “We will receive those applications, vet them, come up with 12, then that slate will be put forward at the state convention.”
Cruz is lining up a slate to run in this weekend’s Arizona delegate elections, despite losing nearly 2-to-1 to Trump in the state’s March 22 primary, and Trump allies are nervous he could make gains. Cruz’s state director there, Constantin Querard, has deep ties to local legislators and many precinct committeemen involved in the delegate selection process, and he’s been furiously recruiting anti-Trump delegate candidates.
— In Virginia, which holds its state convention this weekend and will select 13 national convention delegates, at least one state GOP central committee member noted that Cruz supporters are expected to dominate the attendance and will be able to have their way with the delegate slate. Candidates for delegate slots include Ken Cuccinelli, the former Virginia attorney general who is one of Cruz’s top
delegate organizers. Trump’s state director, Corey Stewart, is also running, along with former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore.
Cruz has notched local delegate wins in a series of states — from the Carolinas to Georgia to Minnesota — that portend bigger victories in state conventions over the next few weeks. And in states like Nebraska, Indiana and West Virginia, obscure rules virtually guarantee that Trump will win fewer supportive delegates than he earns on primary day.
In short, there are few opportunities for Trump to make up ground he’s lost to Cruz in the delegate hunt.
“Based on what we see so far, probably half the people sitting in the seats bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot aren’t for Trump,” said Charlie Black, a veteran Republican operative handling convention strategy for Ohio Gov. Kasich. “I don’t see any way he can come back from that.”
That sentiment was bolstered by anti-Trump forces, who predict the mogul would lose 200 to 300 delegate votes on a second ballot at a contested convention.
“I have seen no indication that the Trump campaign has paid any attention to who the delegates are being elected into these delegate slots at conventions,” added Katie Packer, founder of the anti-Trump Our Principles PAC. “They not only
haven’t been successful but in many cases appear to not even know who their people are.”
Trump can make the entire delegate battle moot with strong victories in the remaining 15 primaries — including five across the Northeast on Tuesday that heavily favored the mogul. Cruz and Kasich announced an alliance of convenience on Sunday, agreeing to quit competing for certain states to help the other topple Trump or limit his margins of victory.
On the first vote at the convention, about 90 percent of delegates are required to vote based on the results of state primaries and caucuses. On a second ballot, only 42 percent are still bound to those results. By the third ballot, 80 percent of delegates are free from all restrictions. That’s why the identity of the delegates is crucial — once they’re free to vote their conscience, their loyalty is paramount.
It’s the second and third ballots where Cruz can do the most damage. Texas’ delegation, including 48 members allocated to Trump, is bound to follow the state’s primary results for two ballots.
Trump’s top operative, Paul Manafort, told Politico that despite his laser focus on avoiding a contested convention, he’s got no plans to concede the delegate fight to Cruz.
“I am not ceding any fight — on delegate selection or second or third or any ballot,” he wrote in an email. “I have several paths to victory. Additionally, I emphasize that we will win on the first ballot, and it will be evident by June 7. So all of Cruz’s second ballot efforts are meaningless.”
Trump has expanded his delegate outreach team, and on Monday he announced the hiring of Ken McKay to “support our delegate operations team and bolster our ground game efforts.”
2016
By Shane Goldmacher
Yet over the weekend, Manafort was careful to note that Trump’s poor performance in delegate fights was largely the result of organizational shortcomings that occurred before he joined the Trump campaign last month.
“Most of the conventions that happened yesterday happened or were set in stages a month or two ago — and before, frankly, I was involved,” he said an interview on “Fox News Sunday,” a day after another delegate beatdown at the hands of the Cruz campaign.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/ted-cruz-donald-trump-delegates-222475
By Kyle Cheney and Katie Glueck
04/27/16 12:12 AM EDT
Ted Cruz has notched local delegate wins in a series of states — from the Carolinas to Georgia to Minnesota — that portend bigger victories in state conventions over the next few weeks. | AP Photo
[list="story-frag-list layout-linear"]
[*]
Trump fails to impress foreign-policy experts
[*]
Why I Blame TV for Trump
[*]
Ryan's GOP tries to create Trump-free alternate reality
[*]
9 photos of John Kasich eating on the campaign trail
[*]
The Kremlin’s Candidate
[*]
Trump passes Romney’s popular vote total, likely to break GOP record
[*]
Ted Cruz’s Hail Carly pass
[*]
White House torches Sen. Tom Cotton on Iran
[*]
Trump starts spending to end Cruz in Indiana
[*]
Hastert sentenced to 15 months in prison
[/list]
Politico Magazine
Why I Hosted Trump’s Foreign-Policy Speech
By Jacob Heilbrunn
The Strange Tale of Donald Trump’s 1989 Biking Extravaganza
By Kevin Hogan
Inside Trump’s Press Pen
By Ben Schreckinger
The End of Pieties
By Rich Lowry
.cms-textAlign-left{text-align:left;}.cms-textAlign-center{text-align:center;}.cms-textAlign-right{text-align:right;}.cms-magazineStyles-smallCaps{font-variant:small-caps;}
Donald Trump has earned more than 9 million votes in the Republican primary and amassed a lead that puts him on the brink of clinching the GOP nomination. But in the shadow contest for the delegates to a contested national convention, he’s getting obliterated by Ted Cruz.
It’s halftime in the hustle for loyal convention delegates. By the weekend, more than 1,300 will have been elected in county, state or congressional district elections or selected by local Republican leaders. So far, Cruz has consistently dominated these contests, securing slots for hundreds of loyalists to the convention in Cleveland in July. Trump, on the other hand, has consistently flopped.
A Politico analysis suggests the mogul is headed for an even rougher second half, limiting his opportunities to survive a contested convention and dramatically raising the stakes of his quest to secure the nomination outright.
“It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure that one out,” said Stuart Jolly, Trump’s former field director, who resigned last week amid leadership changes. Jolly said his driving directive was always to win primaries to avoid having to compete in an establishment-driven delegate trench war.
“My goal was always — if you win the primary you don’t have to worry about the delegate stuff.”
Indeed, if Trump keeps winning primaries as polls suggest he will, he’ll secure enough delegates — 1,237 — to win the nomination without a contested convention. But it’s clearer than ever that this is his best — and perhaps only — shot at the nomination because of his ineffectiveness at lining up loyal delegates.
The evidence that Trump would struggle on subsequent ballots is mounting:
Texas GOP insiders say their home state senator is positioned to sweep the state’s enormous delegate haul. “I’d be very surprised if 155 out of the 155 weren’t for Cruz,” said Steve Munisteri, a former state party chairman who is unaligned. “I just don’t see how he doesn’t win all the delegates.”
In Missouri — a state Trump narrowly won — Cruz is poised to dominate local and state-level contests for 49 delegates. Insiders there say six of the state’s eight congressional districts, which award three delegates apiece, are tilted toward Cruz.
“At county caucuses, they were able to get more of their people in in many cases,” said Carl Bearden, who chaired Cruz’s campaign in Missouri. “Some Trump slates of delegates were elected as well. But overall it appears the Cruz camp has been able to motivate and activate supporters to come out to county caucuses to elect delegates to the next level of conventions.”
— In Iowa, where Cruz narrowly edged Trump on Feb. 1, a slate of 15 statewide delegates will include at least 11 Cruz backers, including Rep. Steve King, conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats and Cruz staffer Bryan English. The others – including Gov. Terry Branstad, Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds and Iowa House Speaker Linda Upmeyer – aren’t exactly Trump loyalists, though Branstad has also been critical of Cruz. (Cruz already won 11 of Iowa’s 12 local delegate slots).
— In Illinois, GOP sources close to the delegate process tell Politico that John Kasich supporters are most likely to dominate the 12 statewide delegate slots, even though they’ll be pledged to Trump on a first ballot. Those slots typically go to elected officials, party loyalists and donors. “There is a historical deference. People have to understand, for statewide officeholders there has been a historical preference given, but that has not been determined,” said Jack Dorgan, who is heading up the committee that will recommend the at-large delegates to the full convention in Peoria.
Illinois GOP Chairman Tim Schneider said that the at-large candidate selection would be transparent: “We will receive those applications, vet them, come up with 12, then that slate will be put forward at the state convention.”
Cruz is lining up a slate to run in this weekend’s Arizona delegate elections, despite losing nearly 2-to-1 to Trump in the state’s March 22 primary, and Trump allies are nervous he could make gains. Cruz’s state director there, Constantin Querard, has deep ties to local legislators and many precinct committeemen involved in the delegate selection process, and he’s been furiously recruiting anti-Trump delegate candidates.
— In Virginia, which holds its state convention this weekend and will select 13 national convention delegates, at least one state GOP central committee member noted that Cruz supporters are expected to dominate the attendance and will be able to have their way with the delegate slate. Candidates for delegate slots include Ken Cuccinelli, the former Virginia attorney general who is one of Cruz’s top
delegate organizers. Trump’s state director, Corey Stewart, is also running, along with former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore.
Cruz has notched local delegate wins in a series of states — from the Carolinas to Georgia to Minnesota — that portend bigger victories in state conventions over the next few weeks. And in states like Nebraska, Indiana and West Virginia, obscure rules virtually guarantee that Trump will win fewer supportive delegates than he earns on primary day.
In short, there are few opportunities for Trump to make up ground he’s lost to Cruz in the delegate hunt.
“Based on what we see so far, probably half the people sitting in the seats bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot aren’t for Trump,” said Charlie Black, a veteran Republican operative handling convention strategy for Ohio Gov. Kasich. “I don’t see any way he can come back from that.”
That sentiment was bolstered by anti-Trump forces, who predict the mogul would lose 200 to 300 delegate votes on a second ballot at a contested convention.
“I have seen no indication that the Trump campaign has paid any attention to who the delegates are being elected into these delegate slots at conventions,” added Katie Packer, founder of the anti-Trump Our Principles PAC. “They not only
haven’t been successful but in many cases appear to not even know who their people are.”
Trump can make the entire delegate battle moot with strong victories in the remaining 15 primaries — including five across the Northeast on Tuesday that heavily favored the mogul. Cruz and Kasich announced an alliance of convenience on Sunday, agreeing to quit competing for certain states to help the other topple Trump or limit his margins of victory.
On the first vote at the convention, about 90 percent of delegates are required to vote based on the results of state primaries and caucuses. On a second ballot, only 42 percent are still bound to those results. By the third ballot, 80 percent of delegates are free from all restrictions. That’s why the identity of the delegates is crucial — once they’re free to vote their conscience, their loyalty is paramount.
It’s the second and third ballots where Cruz can do the most damage. Texas’ delegation, including 48 members allocated to Trump, is bound to follow the state’s primary results for two ballots.
Trump’s top operative, Paul Manafort, told Politico that despite his laser focus on avoiding a contested convention, he’s got no plans to concede the delegate fight to Cruz.
“I am not ceding any fight — on delegate selection or second or third or any ballot,” he wrote in an email. “I have several paths to victory. Additionally, I emphasize that we will win on the first ballot, and it will be evident by June 7. So all of Cruz’s second ballot efforts are meaningless.”
Trump has expanded his delegate outreach team, and on Monday he announced the hiring of Ken McKay to “support our delegate operations team and bolster our ground game efforts.”
2016
Trump: 'It's over'
By Shane Goldmacher
Yet over the weekend, Manafort was careful to note that Trump’s poor performance in delegate fights was largely the result of organizational shortcomings that occurred before he joined the Trump campaign last month.
“Most of the conventions that happened yesterday happened or were set in stages a month or two ago — and before, frankly, I was involved,” he said an interview on “Fox News Sunday,” a day after another delegate beatdown at the hands of the Cruz campaign.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/ted-cruz-donald-trump-delegates-222475
» Al-Sudani chairs the fifth session of the Supreme Coordination Committee between the governorates
» A fruitful international-Japanese partnership produces its eighth batch... Celebrating the success o
» The President of the Republic stresses the need to develop a future strategy for financial policy ac
» Tomorrow.. Turkish Trade Minister visits Baghdad to discuss several files
» Rashid and Al-Alaq discuss the future of the Iraqi banking sector
» US Ambassador assures Maliki of her country's support for Iraq's stability
» Parliamentarian addressing the Judicial Council: When will corruption files be resolved?
» Economist: Re-exporting Kurdistan oil will cause Iraq to lose $5 billion and a budget deficit
» Financial Advisor: Good performance of fiscal space reflects government’s ability to increase spendi
» The President of the Republic stresses the need to develop a future strategy for financial policy
» Parliament determines the most important laws it will work on before its legislative break in a few
» Dollar exchange rates against the dinar in Iraqi stock exchanges
» Government correspondence to install 8 thousand electricity meter readers
» utube 11/16/24 MM&C-News Report-Iraq Dinar-Oil-Flow-Global Maritime Trade-Cross Border Transfer-Ex
» utube 11/13/24 MM&C MM&C News-Private Sector- Electronic Payments-Reconstruction-Development-Digit
» utube MM&C 11/15/24 Update-Budget-Non Oil Resources-CBI-USFED-Cross Border Transfers-Oil
» Al-Sudani is besieged by lawsuits over the “wiretapping network”... and Al-Maliki heard “inappropria
» Tens of thousands of foreigners work illegally in Basra... and the departments will bear the respons
» 4 reasons for the Sudanese government’s silence in the face of the factions’ attacks.. Will Baghdad
» PM's advisor: Government able to increase spending without inflation or fiscal deficit
» Prime Minister stresses the need to complete 2024 projects before the end
» Minister of Labor sets date for launching second batch of social protection beneficiaries in the pol
» Al-Sudani approves 35 new service projects, stresses the need to complete 2024 projects
» Minister of Labor: The population census will provide accurate calculations of poor families covered
» Electricity announces its readiness for the winter peak
» Economist: Parallel market remains pivotal to financing Iraq’s trade with Iran, Syria
» Trump: Iraq: A subsidiary or the focus of major deals?
» Counselor Mazhar Saleh: The government is able to increase spending without causing inflation or a f
» Al-Sudani's advisor to "Al-Maalouma": We do not need to bring in foreign workers
» Parliamentary Rejection.. Parliamentarian Talks About Jordanian Agreement That Harms Iraq’s Economy
» Al-Sudani chairs the periodic meeting of the service and engineering effort team
» Al-Sahaf: Washington continues to support terrorist organizations in Iraq
» Al-Maliki Coalition: America is trying to make Iraq hostile to its neighbors by violating its airspa
» Close source: Al-Sudani failed to convince Al-Hakim and Al-Amiri to carry out the ministerial reshuf
» Al-Sayhoud on Postponing Parliament Sessions: Bad Start for Al-Mashhadani
» Peshmerga Minister: The survival of the Kurdistan Region depends on the presence of a strong Peshmer
» Al-Maliki Coalition: US pressures prevent Israel from striking Iraq
» Nechirvan Barzani calls for keeping Peshmerga out of partisan conflicts, urges formation of 'strong
» US Institute: Trump administration may prevent Iraq from importing Iranian gas as part of pressure o
» The meter will visit families again.. Planning details the steps for conducting the population censu
» Government clarification: Is Iraq able to increase spending?
» Iraq advances over China.. Iran's trade exchange witnesses growth during October
» Al-Sudani approves 35 new service projects and begins implementing them within 10 days
» Al-Sudani and Al-Hakim discuss developments in the political scene and the results of the visit to K
» Minister of Labor: Government measures contributed to reducing the poverty rate from 22% to 16.5%
» Al-Maliki calls for strengthening national dialogue and unity to overcome the current stage
» Al-Sudani stresses the importance of accuracy and specifications in service and engineering projects
» Baghdad Governor: 169 projects are listed for referral and contracting
» Industry confirms success by signing 4 investment contracts for strategic industries
» Parliament confirms its support for conducting the general population census and decides to resume s
» Parliament gains a "holiday and a half"... Half of the "extended" legislative term passes without se
» Find out the exchange rates of the dollar against the dinar in the Iraqi stock exchanges
» Al-Maliki describes tribes as a "pillar" for confronting challenges in Iraq
» The plan in the "distribution method".. A representative describes the "investment achievement" as n
» Iraq is ahead of China in trade exchange with Iran.. These are the numbers
» MM&C 11/14/24 Central Bank Governor Urges Türkiye to Open Accounts for Iraqi Banks
» MM&C 11/14/24 Trump and the Iraqi Banks Puzzle
» New decline in gold in Iraq.. and globally records the worst week in 3 years
» Monitoring body approves 2023 imports annual report
» Development Road: Faw Port Ignites Regional Corridor Race
» First in Iraq... Diyala sets a plan for "rural reconstruction"
» Al-Saadi: Influential parties are working to erase the theft of the century file
» MP: Baghdad supports the "Diyala Artery" project with 40 billion dinars
» Source: General amnesty law will pave the way for the return of terrorist groups
» The Prime Minister stresses the need to expedite the completion of the requirements for restructurin
» Minister of Resources: The project to develop the left side of the Tigris River has reached its fina
» Foreign Minister: We are proceeding with implementing the associated gas exploitation program
» Swiss Ambassador Expresses His Country's Desire to Invest in Iraq
» "We left the camel and its load" .. Moroccan farmers await "imminent compensation" from Iraq
» OPEC sues Iraqi minister over oil violations.. What is Kurdistan's involvement?
» Iraq warns of 'dire consequences' of imposing barriers to plastic products
» Iranian newspaper: Iraq's development path is a step towards regional economic integration
» Al-Mandlawi discusses with the Russian ambassador developing relations in the fields of economy, inv
» Oil Minister discusses with Dutch Ambassador strengthening bilateral relations
» The Minister of Oil discusses with the companies "+dss" and "Xergy", joint cooperation to develop th
» Rafidain Bank announces a plan to include other branches in the implementation of the comprehensive
» With the presence of the opposition... Baghdad supports the partnership government in Kurdistan
» Parliamentary move to raise retirement age in state institutions to 63 years
» Through leaks.. Warnings against creating political crises as parliamentary elections approach
» Iraqi oil returns to decline in global markets
» Parliamentary Committee: Iraq uses its international relations to avert the dangers of war from its
» The value of non-oil imports for Sulaymaniyah and Halabja governorates during a week
» Rafidain: Continuous expansion in implementing the comprehensive banking system
» Planning: The population census includes residents of Iraq according to a special mechanism
» Transparency website reveals non-oil imports to Sulaymaniyah and Halabja during a week
» Al-Sudani directs the adoption of specialized international companies to prepare a unified structure
» MP warns of a move that will worsen the housing crisis and calls on the government
» Disagreements strike the Kurdish house... hindering the formation of the regional parliament and gov
» Hundreds of Moroccan farmers are waiting for “imminent compensation” from Iraq.. What’s the story?
» Iraq 10-Year Review: Spending, Imports, Unemployment in 2024 at ‘Highest Level’ in a Decade
» Call to all smokers in Iraq: Prepare for the law
» utube 11/11/24 MM&C News Reporting-IRAQ-USA-Financial Inclusion up 48%-Money Inside & Out of Iraq
» Al-Mandlawi to the UN envoy: The supreme authority diagnosed the problems and provided solutions for
» Saleh: Government strategy to boost gold reserves as part of asset diversification
» Prime Minister's advisor rules out oil price collapse: Trump's policy will not sacrifice petrodollar
» Tripartite alliance between Iraq, Egypt and Jordan to boost maritime trade
» Parliamentary Committee reveals date of entry into force of Personal Status Law
» Al-Fatah warns against US blackmail and Trump's intentions for the next stage