The Washington Post: the siege of Qatar has proved not to Saudi Arabia and the UAE efficiency

The Washington Post: the siege of Qatar has proved not to Saudi Arabia and the UAE efficiency


16/07/2017


Direction Press / Agencies
The newspaper "The Washington Post," the US published a report on the Gulf crisis, noting that with the end of the tour of the US Secretary of State «Rex Tillerson» in the Persian Gulf, which aimed to mediate an end to the crisis between Qatar and four Arab countries, does not appear conflict no signs of solution.

In the end, Qatar ignored the deadline set by the beleaguered countries in the July 3 was leaked texts of secret agreements in an attempt to increase pressure on Doha by demonstrating its failure to comply with previous agreements.
Despite the diplomatic «Tillerson» active, it seems that the crisis is not close to the solution. What began anticipating the rapid surrender of Qatar, with the threat of regime change or war, ultimately led to a mere parting long.
Was this a surprise? Here are some of the big things that we have learned about international relations in the Middle East crisis:
UAE borders Saudi leadership
After hosting dozens of Arab leaders and Islamists for the summit of President «Trump», Saudi Arabia and the UAE are clearly expected a quick victory over Qatar and in support of regional and large-scale, but things did not go this way. Efforts to prove Saudi Arabia and the UAE dominate the GCC and the Middle East and the Arab Council showed instead the continuing regional system divisions.
As is the case in their war disastrous in Yemen, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have overestimated the prospects for success and failed to set reasonable if their plan did not work an alternative plan. It seems that the quartet siege countries exaggerated the Qatari fears of isolation from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the extent of its ability to cause harm to its neighbor.
It can not economic boycott only hurt one of the richest countries in the world only marginally, while the US military base provide an effective military deterrent. It was not military threats mentioned after the US military said it has no interest in the United Arab Emirates proposals to move the US air base effect from Qatar. Requested the closure of the island has attracted worldwide condemnation and widespread as an attack on freedom of the media, while faced four systems repressive and anti-democratic difficult times in guiding reasonable criticism of the regime of Qatar under the pretext that it is undemocratic.
While it appears that the failure to force Qatar was expected, but it is striking that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates failed to expand the scope of the anti-coalition to Qatar after the four core members. Bahrain did not have an independent foreign policy, since the brutal repression of the protests in 2011, while Egypt sees Qatar as part of the internal struggle for power with the Muslim Brotherhood. Both countries did not need a lot of temptation to join.
With the exception of the four corners of the blockade, it did not support any other country in support of the campaign categorically. The split itself of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, where Kuwait and Oman has sought to play a mediating role. The countries of North Africa hedged, and even Jordan, which relies heavily on Saudi Arabia to neutral sites towards the crisis.
At the same time, the isolation of Qatar's efforts opened up doors of opportunities for regional actors. For its part, Turkey sent military forces to Qatar to deter any invasion and this was a symbolic gesture, given the weakness of the possibility of a public attack, but the move raised caveats taking such a thing.
Iran has seized the opportunity to improve its relations not only with Qatar, but also with Oman and Kuwait. Ready Saudi Arabia and the UAE refers to tearing up the Gulf Cooperation Council in their conflict with Qatar that fearing Iran is not as much as the media and assist in consumption. Conflicts are still on power and political competition between Sunni forces, as well as the ongoing popular uprisings and Islamist rivals existential fears, represent for Saudi Arabia and the UAE over the conflict between Turkey and Iran urgent threats.
US policy ambiguous
Sent «Trump» management of mixed messages is disappointing on the crisis. Chirp «Trump» in favor of the blockade of Qatar, but the Pentagon has confirmed that he does not intend to transfer military base from Doha.
He focused «Tillerson» on the mediation and the need to calm the crisis, and expected that the signing of the agreement with Qatar on terrorism financing will ease the fears of the beleaguered countries. No one knows who is really talking about the United States, and all parties to actively mobilize their allies within the Department of «Trump» working.
Many predicted that embrace «Trump» full vision UAE Saudi Arabia during his visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia refers to the return of the close partnership between the United States and its traditional allies, the Gulf. But the chaos resulting problems among these allies suggest that the things that the United States away from its allies, the Gulf «structure» most of them personal.
As was the case with the Department of «Obama», the «Trump» management is now experiencing a very similar situation, where Gulf regimes continue to pursue the agenda of local and regional policies with a lack of respect for the priorities of Washington, such as the campaign against the Islamic state.
The battle relating to the security systems
Qatar is the result of a crisis of proxy wars that drained the region since the Arab uprisings in 2011. In those wars, supported the Gulf (Persian) (such as Iran and Turkey) are routinely opponents from different ideologies and backgrounds in their quest to get active allies on the ground. Since the beginning of the Libyan war, Qatar and it directed the United Arab Emirates money and guns to their allies, which led to the failure to build an effective Libyan state.
The disputed arguments about whether the inclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood in the definition of terrorism rooted in proxy wars and fears of internal security systems. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has paid years ago to name the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization, although the consensus of experts that it is not.
The real issue is that Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood stand on the other side in the struggle for regional influence. The resulting polarization between Islamists and their opponents in the end to a military coup backed by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in Egypt, which is the fate of Tunisia barely avoided after it followed the movement of the Renaissance voluntarily from power.
Qatar also participated in the financing of some Islamist opposition groups in Syria. However, the Gulf (Persian) and private networks loyal to them was responsible for directing arms to militants over five years of war.
Saudi Arabia was heavily involved in arming the Syrian opposition, while Kuwait was a center for years to collect donations for them Gulf. In early 2015, Saudi Arabia joined Qatar and Turkey in support of military conquest, an Islamist alliance adopts a «tough approach» in Syria. Certainly, the issue of sectarian discourse in the Syrian conflict extends far beyond the diameter.
what did we learn?
Qatar, the crisis has demonstrated that the conflicts between the states «Sunni» is still more severe than its struggle against Iran, and that security concerns systems continue to drive policy.
Regional powers err in assessing the possible consequences of their policies , a cautionary note for those who hope for the region to emerge from the current turmoil. This makes the mixed messages from the management of «Trump» is particularly serious at a critical age of the Middle East time. saj

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