Political currents fear the re-election: Their audience is remorseful and the coffers are empty

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[size=52]Political currents fear the re-election: Their audience is remorseful and the coffers are empty[/size]

[size=45]Baghdad / Tamim Al-Hassan[/size]
[size=45]The idea of ​​“rerunning the elections” frightens most of the parties to the coordination framework, which may demand changing the last election law, if it becomes the last solution.
During the past few days, some political circles began to accept the idea of ​​"dissolving parliament" and then going to new early elections.
This solution comes as the last solution if the opposing forces fail to reach an agreement after the "Al-Sadr deadline", which is supposed to expire next month.
Suggestions to get out of the political crisis that has been going on for months have begun to shrink until everyone is spinning in a vicious circle.
The Sadrist movement, along with its partners in the tripartite alliance, insists on forming a majority government that may exclude most of the Shiite forces that win the elections.
On the other hand, the opponents of the Sadrists cling to what they describe as the "Shia's right" to form the largest bloc, before discussing the formation of the government or choosing a new prime minister.
Most expectations had suggested the establishment of a new government at the end of last year or the beginning of this year at the latest, had the country not entered into a series of legal interpretations that complicated the scene.
The tripartite alliance "Save the Homeland" was just around the corner last February from choosing the president of the republic, before the Federal Court turned the table with its famous interpretation of the quorum of the (president's) election session.
The court demanded that at least two-thirds of parliament members (220 deputies out of 329) be present in the session for electing the president of the republic, which then formed what became known as the “blocking third.”
The "trio", which includes the Sadrists, the Sovereignty Alliance, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, was officially announced last March that it was the largest bloc.
Reber Ahmed was nominated for the position of President of the Republic, a replacement for Hoshyar Zebari, who was removed from the position last February by a decision of the "Federal Union" in light of his dismissal from Parliament in 2016 due to corruption cases that were not proven, according to the latter's statements.
At that time, the coalition presented the cousin of the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Iraq's ambassador in London, Jaafar al-Sadr, as a candidate to head the next government.
This nomination embarrassed the coordination framework, which could not object to it publicly because of the family history of the candidate, who is the son of Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr, founder of the Dawa Party.
On the other hand, the Coordinating Committee stipulated that the leader of the movement be the first within the largest bloc, and participate in at least half of the ministries that belong to the Shiites’ share.
In the beginning, Muqtada al-Sadr, according to political circles who spoke to Al-Mada, was ready to “discuss giving up” less than half of the Shiites’ share in the ministries, which is 12 out of 22 ministries.
According to those active circles in the political dialogues, the leader of the current "could have given up only 5 ministries, and negotiated that one or two of them would be sovereign."
In those negotiations - before entering into the last seclusion more than a week ago - Al-Sadr angered his opponents because of his desire to get "all the eggs in the basket."
It was according to the political custom followed in forming governments after 2003, that the party that obtains the position of prime minister relinquishes all shares (ministries) to its comrades in the same component.
But this time, the leader of the movement, and because he proposed the "political majority" project, was thinking of sharing shares between him and his allies in "save the nation."
Those sources continued, talking about how the negotiations reached a dead end: "After the coordination framework adhered to Nuri al-Maliki, in turn, the hardening of al-Sadr's position increased and his request to obtain all the whites (ministeries)."
12 ministries wanted by the leader of the Sadrist movement alone, in addition to the position of prime minister, and also demanded the handing over of “the faction’s weapons,” and “freedom to punish” any official, regardless of his position, if corruption cases were proven against him.
These requirements sparked disagreements between the Sadrists and the coordination framework, and ended at the beginning of Ramadan with the entry of “Al-Sadr” into isolation for forty days, leaving his opponents to face the problem of forming a government on their own.
The "Coordination Council" issued an angry statement the day before yesterday, in which it was considered that it was not interested in setting time limits, in reference to "Al-Sadr's deadline."
And the "Coordination" said in a statement issued after the latter's meeting on Monday evening, that the delay in forming the government "does not serve the interests of the Iraqi citizen, who aspires to improve his economic situation."
The statement stresses that the coordination framework "is not at all concerned with setting time limits that will only result in prolonging the political impasse and disrupting people's interests."
The statement stressed that the "Coordination Council" seeks to "reach realistic understandings with other political forces away from exclusivity or exclusion" in forming the largest bloc.
According to sources identical to the previous statement, the reason for the last statement is that the leader of the Sadrist movement: “completely closed any door to dialogue,” and he “categorically refuses to give any honorary positions.”
The "Coordination" had tried to evade the negotiations, by obtaining a position for former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, rejected by "Al-Sadr", as Vice Presidents of the Republic or the next ministers.
New elections
On the other hand, the political forces began, according to some leaks, to think seriously about the issue of dissolving parliament and then going to new early elections, as a solution to the crisis.
This option frightens most of the components of the coordination framework, as this team finds that its loss may widen if it contests new elections.
According to what is being circulated behind the scenes, "The Al-Fateh coalition believes that it may lose half of the seats it obtained in 2021."
Al-Fateh, one of the components of the coordination framework, lost about 30 seats from its results in 2018, when in 2021, it won only 17 seats, compared to about 50 seats in the previous elections.
On the other hand, the analyzes of the political forces after the results of the last elections that took place last October, indicate that the Sadrist movement's audience in the elections will remain stable, as will the republican forces of Sunni and Kurdish forces.
On the other hand, the fortunes of the independent forces or personalities can rise if the elections are repeated, as the last elections were the first experience for this team that did not participate in all its energy with the calls for a “boycott” that preceded the polls.
The “Coordination Committee” feared new elections, not only related to the number of votes, but also to the election law that was used for the first time and allowed the arrival of small forces, and the former accused him of being biased towards a certain party.
The Coordination Council, according to what is going on in closed rooms, if it agrees to repeat the elections, “will not agree to run in the last election law.”
The "frameworks" had accused the "Sadrists" several times of tailoring the law to their size, as well as appealing against the results, which lasted two months.
The law, which came in the wake of the October demonstrations, recognized for the first time the possibility of independents running in the elections on their own, and allowed multiple constituencies.
On the other hand, the process of re-election may be very costly for the parties, as it is estimated that the propaganda campaign only cost at least 8 million dinars per MP.
The Electoral Commission had also granted a budget of 300 million dollars, which is equivalent to about 45 billion dinars.
Meanwhile, Najm al-Qassab, a researcher in political affairs, believes that the crisis will not reach solutions with each of the parties clinging to their positions, even after the end of "Al-Sadr's deadline."
Al-Qassab added in an interview with Al-Mada that "solutions are very difficult, especially after the Sadrists were let down by the independents and did not attend the last session of the presidential elections."
The researcher calls on the leader of the Sadrist movement to "include parts of the coordination framework to the next government to end the problem."[/size]
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