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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    What is expected from the OPEC+ meeting today? And the most likely scenarios

    Rocky
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    meeting - What is expected from the OPEC+ meeting today? And the most likely scenarios Empty What is expected from the OPEC+ meeting today? And the most likely scenarios

    Post by Rocky Thu 30 Nov 2023, 5:16 am

    What is expected from the OPEC+ meeting today? And the most likely scenarios
    • Time: 11/30/2023 08:49:02
       
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    {Economic: Al-Furat News} The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) postponed the 51st meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, and the 36th ministerial meeting of “OPEC+” countries, to today, Thursday, November 30 {today, Thursday}, instead of the 25th and 26th of the same month. And then later converting it to a virtual meeting, a lot of speculation about the reasons for postponement, and expected scenarios.
    Below are the most frequently asked questions in the market in this regard, and the answers of oil sector analysts to them:
    Why was the OPEC+ meeting postponed?
    According to what Bloomberg reported from sources in OPEC, the main reason for postponing the meeting of OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) is to give the oil and energy ministers of the coalition countries more time to discuss the new cuts called for by Saudi Arabia with their governments in order to reach an agreement to reduce production. On the other hand, some sources said that the reason is the continuation of negotiations with three African countries (Angola, Nigeria, and Congo) that objected to their production quotas that will come into effect starting on the first day of next year 2024.
    Why was it converted to a virtual meeting?
    As for converting it to a virtual one, it may be a sign that countries do not want an in-person meeting in the Austrian capital, Vienna, without confirmation of the existence of an agreement. It may be converted to virtual coinciding with the presence of some ministers in Dubai to attend the opening of the Climate Summit (COP 28), which is being held for the first time in a member state of OPEC or the “OPEC+” alliance.
    Why do African countries object to quotas despite previously agreeing to them?
    African countries are in dire need to export the largest possible amount of oil in order to finance the budgets of these countries, which are considered poor even though they are oil producers. This is why, historically, it has always objected to the quotas imposed on it and tried to obtain a production ceiling higher than what was given to it.
    Bloomberg: OPEC+ is close to agreeing on oil production quotas for Angola and Nigeria
    But what happened this time is that the three African countries (Angola, Nigeria, and Congo) had objected to the quotas at the organization’s last meeting last summer, and then external expert houses were appointed to evaluate the production capacity of these countries for the year 2024, and then review these numbers again to ensure that they are accurate. Her health. According to what Bloomberg reported from sources, these three countries were not satisfied with the evaluation provided by the expert houses.
    Who evaluated the shares of these countries?
    The parties that assessed the shares of these countries were not OPEC or OPEC+, but rather three independent sources: IHS, Wood Mackenzie, and Rystad Energy.
    What are the shares agreed upon in the new agreement and when will they start working?
    The currently agreed-upon quotas began to be implemented in January 2023, and later this year during the last ministerial meeting of the organization and its allies, the agreement was extended to the end of 2024 and new quotas were agreed upon to take effect at the beginning of next year.
    Below is a detailed table of the agreed production quotas for the year 2024 compared to the current production ceiling:
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    Do we expect production quotas to be changed at today's meeting?
    There are no confirmations yet, but there are various reports in the media about intensive meetings between member states to change production quotas, as unannounced discussions took place to make a new reduction in the current reduction, which amounts to 5 million barrels per day if we add Saudi Arabia’s voluntary reduction of one million barrels per day, and 300 One thousand barrels per day voluntarily reduced by Russia.
    If African countries do not agree on quotas, what will happen to the agreement?
    If there is no agreement with African countries, the coalition may take a decision to continue with the current production ceilings, provided that the production ceilings are reconsidered at the beginning of the new year. In any case, there will not be a significant impact on the market, given that countries with high production, such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait, all agreed to reduce and made significant voluntary and involuntary reductions this year.
    What are the expected scenarios in today's meeting?
    One of the expected scenarios in today's meeting is for the coalition to agree on a reduction of up to one million barrels per day additional to what exists now, and both Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue the voluntary reduction, by one million barrels per day and 300 thousand barrels per day, respectively, at least for the first quarter of 2024.
    One of the expected scenarios is that all countries will not agree on a reduction, and thus the current reductions will continue in 2023.
    In the absence of an agreement on 2024 quotas, member states may be required to adhere to their current production ceilings, especially since there are countries that have not yet adhered to their quotas.
    Will OPEC+ countries reduce their production further?
    This is an expected scenario, but many countries do not have the ability to reduce production further, especially since current oil prices do not serve them in terms of revenues, and thus these countries will lose their production, market share, and revenues at the same time.
    OPEC is optimistic about the demand for oil next year.. So why are there expectations of a reduction in production?
    Several factors may contribute to a decision to reduce production despite optimism about the growth in demand for oil, and among these factors: the demand for oil from China has not reached the required level, and the European winter so far is not as harsh as usual, in addition to the presence of fears of an economic recession. In the United States of America and the European Union in 2024, and the uncertainty of the global economic situation.

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