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[size=35][size=35]Water Crisis in Iraq: Dimensions, Causes and Solutions[/size]
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2024-08-09 | 05:04
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In May 2022, a dust storm swept through Baghdad, creating thick clouds of choking, blinding orange dust, with thousands hospitalized for respiratory problems.
According to the United Nations Environment Program, Iraq is one of the five countries most vulnerable to climate change in the world, and one of the worst prepared for it, with a water stress score of 3.7 out of 5, with 5 being the highest level of scarcity.
This refers to a situation where there is not enough fresh water to meet the needs of the population, and this affects the entire fabric of society. By 2040, Iraq’s water stress level is expected to reach a frightening 4.6 points.
Decades of armed conflict, rapid population growth, and poor infrastructure have pushed Iraq towards the brink and created the water crisis in Iraq. An existential crisis like this would be a concern anywhere, but the lack of stability at home in Iraq will ripple into the wider region, creating a domino effect of extremism and radicalism capable of dragging much of the world towards the brink.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
The government says it has a plan, but the situation is not promising. It is like a meeting between an unstoppable force and an immovable body.
Asbab platform, which is concerned with geopolitical analysis, discussed this crisis, its dimensions, the reasons behind it, and the ways to solve it.
"Mesopotamia"
Water is an integral part of the story of Iraq, once known as Mesopotamia. The Tigris and Euphrates rivers provided the land with a steady and predictable flow of water, extending from Turkey and Syria into Iraq before emptying into the Gulf.
In ancient times, Iraq emerged as a breadbasket of the region, as its rivers facilitated the spread of agriculture on a large scale, allowing large numbers of people to:
- settle
- exploit its resources
- engage in trade.
In this way, the Tigris and Euphrates played a fundamental role in the development of early civilization, but the rivers also imposed some hardships. Seasonal floods were a regular occurrence due to the absence of dams and reservoirs to control the flow of water, which led to the destruction of crops and property on the banks of the rivers.
However, starting in the 1970s, the situation turned around, with scarcity replacing floods, and water flowing into Iraq in gradually less quantities. Today, the water crisis extends across the country.
Iraq’s Water Crisis
In 2023, Mosul Dam, Iraq’s largest, recorded its lowest storage capacity since it opened in 1986, at 11 billion cubic meters.
If water levels continue to drop, the nearby Lake Mosul will dry up within years, leaving some 1.7 million people in nearby areas without electricity or water to irrigate crops.
Meanwhile, the water level in the Dukan Dam has dropped from 7 billion to 3 billion cubic meters, and more than 3 million people in the surrounding area depend on this dam for their daily fresh water needs.
The nearby Darbandikhan Dam is no better off, with its water level down by seven metres and the dam operating at a third of its capacity. The decline in water resources has affected all areas of society, with fishing, agriculture and industrial production down,
but things are even worse in southern Iraq, where water loses much of its quantity and quality as it flows downstream.
Iraq’s cities and towns in the centre of the country rely heavily on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers for water.
Recent years have seen rainfall rates drop by 40% below average, and when water reaches southern Iraq, waste from old industrial and agricultural infrastructure ends up at the bottom of the river, posing serious health risks.
In 2018, for example, some 118,000 people were hospitalised in Basra with water-related symptoms. Years later, in 2023, the United Nations Development Programme found that salinity levels at the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates near Basra were 10 times higher than World Health Organisation standards. At the same time, as freshwater levels in the south have fallen, Seawater from the Gulf is replacing it, and saltwater is flowing about 190 km northward.
This environmental degradation is destroying the Iraqi marshlands, a wetland area located on the flood plains of the Tigris and Euphrates, which is home to a highly biodiverse environment and includes endangered species, not to mention a distinctive and unique local culture.
But this entire ecosystem is now at risk of extinction, and as a result of all these interconnected factors, Iraq’s two rivers are dying, and this could happen by 2040, according to the Ministry of Water Resources. If these two rivers die, Iraq will die with them.
Turkey’s Ilisu Project: A Disaster for Iraq
Baghdad is unfortunately located at the bottom of the river basin, as about 90% of the Euphrates’ water originates in the Anatolian Mountains of Turkey. As for the Tigris River, Turkey’s share of it is 45%, and Syria, Iran and Iraq account for the rest of the Tigris River, but Turkey remains the largest share.
Beginning in the 1970s, Turkey began building dams and reservoirs along its rivers as Turkish officials sought to boost economic activity in Anatolia by harnessing hydropower.
In the decades since, Turkey has built more than 600 dams and reservoirs on both rivers, with another 600 planned over the coming decades. The more dams Turkey builds, the less water will flow into Iraq.
The massive Ilisu project, which consists of 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric power plants along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, is located near Turkey’s borders with Syria and Iraq.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
The project has transformed its green spaces by creating new lakes and agricultural land.
The Ilisu project may be good for Turkey, but it is a disaster for Iraq, where the flow of water on the Tigris River in Iraq is expected to decline by an additional 65% in the coming years. There are no formal agreements between Iraq, Syria, Iran and Turkey regarding water management.
This year, rainfall rates have reached their lowest levels in 62 years, with massive forest fires spreading across the country due to low rainfall, drought and heat in 2021.
This means that Turkey’s need for water resources is not good news for Iraq downstream, and the results are clear: since 1970, the volume of water flowing on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers has declined from 40 and 45 billion cubic meters to 15 and 20 billion cubic meters annually, respectively.
Iraq needs about 77 billion cubic meters to meet its industrial, agricultural and civil needs, but the available amount of water is only 35 billion cubic meters, and this difference is considered a death sentence in slow motion.
Kurdistan Region.. Building Dams
What is worse is that the Kurdistan Region in Iraq is also considering building dams on all its tributaries, which will reduce the flow of water downstream even more.
*14 dams have been completed
*17 more are currently being built
*40 dams are in the planning stage
By the end of the project, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq will have up to 245 dams and reservoirs. It is an impressive project, but it will further reduce Baghdad’s share downstream. However, the federal government has failed to solve the country’s water deficit. After decades of arbitrary oversight, there has been no real progress in water management in agricultural and industrial practices.
Much of the country’s irrigation is still done in traditional ways. As a result, Iraq loses billions of cubic meters of water to evaporation and other wasteful practices. Agriculture consumes about 63 percent of Iraq’s total water capacity, but poor and ineffective management has left the country at the mercy of the desert.
Today, drought affects more than 90 percent of Iraq’s area, and the desert is creeping closer and closer on all fronts, especially in the south, where seawater is creeping deeper into the land at the same time. Iraq has lost more than half of its arable land since 1970 and is losing an additional 100 square kilometers of agricultural land every year.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Sandstorms like the one in Baghdad in 2022 used to happen twice a year, but now they happen 20 times a year. Iraqi academics say their country could experience 272 dusty days a year over the next two decades. Some seven million civilians are already suffering from water shortages and their secondary effects. The implications are far-reaching because 20% to 30% of Iraq’s workforce works in agriculture.
The lack of arable land:
* Threatens food security and raises food prices
* Affects job opportunities because shrinking farmland reduces the need for agricultural workers.
As land dries up and livelihoods are lost, people pack up and move elsewhere. This is a multi-layered crisis because the government had planned to invest in agriculture to diversify its economy away from hydrocarbons. Agriculture was supposed to be Iraq’s gateway to economic reform, but declining water resources make that plan unlikely to succeed.
"A drowning man grasps at a straw."
Iraq's existential crisis is not confined to its borders. Iraq lies at the heart of the Middle East, which means that destabilizing Iraq will seep into its surroundings and unleash a wave of extremism and radicalism. There are few democratic and institutional spaces available to resolve the expected complications.
Iraq's problem is therefore a problem for the entire world. When drought strikes the land and civilians feel marginalized, the rise of radicalism becomes inevitable. The last time Iraqis felt this, the jihadist forces founded the terrorist organization "ISIS", which later took over parts of Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere.
The terrorist organization committed a number of atrocities, including:
- Mass executions
- Bombings
- Slavery
- Spreading extremism around the world through its propaganda and violence.
ISIS was terrible, but its next version will be worse, because conditions will be even more desperate. When the water, food and energy crises turn Iraq into a hotbed of instability, desperate militants who have lost everything will join the new ISIS and then penetrate the wider region, driven by a desire for revenge.
The crisis is all the more urgent because of its timing. Iraq’s population is currently growing at an unsustainable rate, projected to exceed 63 million by 2040, up from 46 million today. By 2071, Iraq’s population will exceed 94 million, overtaking Iran and Turkey. But it will not be the end of the climb: the population will continue to grow unabated, reaching 111 million before the end of the century.
Demographic studies are difficult to predict, but if Iraq stays on the same trajectory, demand for water will increase while supply continues to decline.
Less water will lead to a steady decline in public services, food security, and health care collapse. By 2040, Iraq will be a country without rivers, and the Tigris and Euphrates will slowly die. The water may continue to flow marginally, but it will not reach its final outlet in the Gulf. All components of Iraqi society will be affected, rendering the country uninhabitable. This would be a radical reversal, given that Iraq was once known as the Fertile Crescent.
*Solutions to Iraq’s Water Crisis
Iraq’s water crisis seems daunting, but it is not insurmountable. There are small steps in the right direction.
In 2023, for example, construction began on a new $200 million desalination plant near Basra, with Japanese funding and technical support. The facility will serve about 400,000 people.
Nearby, a U.S. project is underway to upgrade water infrastructure for up to 650,000 people. At the same time, China is negotiating to build additional desalination plants to serve millions of Iraqis.
This is the right path for Iraq, but the federal government must do more—much more. It must:
upgrade its infrastructure;
build recycling
plants;
treat wastewater and establish the necessary facilities.
Iraq can take temporary action by tapping into groundwater, but more importantly, it must support farmers to use modern irrigation methods to reduce water waste. Baghdad must also find a way to suspend and reevaluate its dam project in Iraqi Kurdistan.
It is also essential to reach some sort of arrangement with Turkey, where the river originates. This could be described as climate diplomacy. The collapse of Iraq would not be in Turkey’s interest, because instability breeds more instability.
Turkish officials understand this, and have reached a memorandum of understanding with Turkey calling for an equitable flow of water downstream in Iraq. Although the memorandum lacks a legal framework and the terms have not yet been finalized, and the matter is still subject to negotiations, it is a step in the right direction.
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2024-08-09 | 05:04
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[/size]
Source:
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202 views
Alsumaria News - Local:
A new problem is suffering from Iraq, added to its non-stop problems, which is the water scarcity crisis, which has become a major crisis not only in Iraq but in the Middle East, due to the dangers of the climate change crisis that is striking the entire world.
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In May 2022, a dust storm swept through Baghdad, creating thick clouds of choking, blinding orange dust, with thousands hospitalized for respiratory problems.
According to the United Nations Environment Program, Iraq is one of the five countries most vulnerable to climate change in the world, and one of the worst prepared for it, with a water stress score of 3.7 out of 5, with 5 being the highest level of scarcity.
This refers to a situation where there is not enough fresh water to meet the needs of the population, and this affects the entire fabric of society. By 2040, Iraq’s water stress level is expected to reach a frightening 4.6 points.
Decades of armed conflict, rapid population growth, and poor infrastructure have pushed Iraq towards the brink and created the water crisis in Iraq. An existential crisis like this would be a concern anywhere, but the lack of stability at home in Iraq will ripple into the wider region, creating a domino effect of extremism and radicalism capable of dragging much of the world towards the brink.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
The government says it has a plan, but the situation is not promising. It is like a meeting between an unstoppable force and an immovable body.
Asbab platform, which is concerned with geopolitical analysis, discussed this crisis, its dimensions, the reasons behind it, and the ways to solve it.
"Mesopotamia"
Water is an integral part of the story of Iraq, once known as Mesopotamia. The Tigris and Euphrates rivers provided the land with a steady and predictable flow of water, extending from Turkey and Syria into Iraq before emptying into the Gulf.
In ancient times, Iraq emerged as a breadbasket of the region, as its rivers facilitated the spread of agriculture on a large scale, allowing large numbers of people to:
- settle
- exploit its resources
- engage in trade.
In this way, the Tigris and Euphrates played a fundamental role in the development of early civilization, but the rivers also imposed some hardships. Seasonal floods were a regular occurrence due to the absence of dams and reservoirs to control the flow of water, which led to the destruction of crops and property on the banks of the rivers.
However, starting in the 1970s, the situation turned around, with scarcity replacing floods, and water flowing into Iraq in gradually less quantities. Today, the water crisis extends across the country.
Iraq’s Water Crisis
In 2023, Mosul Dam, Iraq’s largest, recorded its lowest storage capacity since it opened in 1986, at 11 billion cubic meters.
If water levels continue to drop, the nearby Lake Mosul will dry up within years, leaving some 1.7 million people in nearby areas without electricity or water to irrigate crops.
Meanwhile, the water level in the Dukan Dam has dropped from 7 billion to 3 billion cubic meters, and more than 3 million people in the surrounding area depend on this dam for their daily fresh water needs.
The nearby Darbandikhan Dam is no better off, with its water level down by seven metres and the dam operating at a third of its capacity. The decline in water resources has affected all areas of society, with fishing, agriculture and industrial production down,
but things are even worse in southern Iraq, where water loses much of its quantity and quality as it flows downstream.
Iraq’s cities and towns in the centre of the country rely heavily on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers for water.
Recent years have seen rainfall rates drop by 40% below average, and when water reaches southern Iraq, waste from old industrial and agricultural infrastructure ends up at the bottom of the river, posing serious health risks.
In 2018, for example, some 118,000 people were hospitalised in Basra with water-related symptoms. Years later, in 2023, the United Nations Development Programme found that salinity levels at the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates near Basra were 10 times higher than World Health Organisation standards. At the same time, as freshwater levels in the south have fallen, Seawater from the Gulf is replacing it, and saltwater is flowing about 190 km northward.
This environmental degradation is destroying the Iraqi marshlands, a wetland area located on the flood plains of the Tigris and Euphrates, which is home to a highly biodiverse environment and includes endangered species, not to mention a distinctive and unique local culture.
But this entire ecosystem is now at risk of extinction, and as a result of all these interconnected factors, Iraq’s two rivers are dying, and this could happen by 2040, according to the Ministry of Water Resources. If these two rivers die, Iraq will die with them.
Turkey’s Ilisu Project: A Disaster for Iraq
Baghdad is unfortunately located at the bottom of the river basin, as about 90% of the Euphrates’ water originates in the Anatolian Mountains of Turkey. As for the Tigris River, Turkey’s share of it is 45%, and Syria, Iran and Iraq account for the rest of the Tigris River, but Turkey remains the largest share.
Beginning in the 1970s, Turkey began building dams and reservoirs along its rivers as Turkish officials sought to boost economic activity in Anatolia by harnessing hydropower.
In the decades since, Turkey has built more than 600 dams and reservoirs on both rivers, with another 600 planned over the coming decades. The more dams Turkey builds, the less water will flow into Iraq.
The massive Ilisu project, which consists of 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric power plants along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, is located near Turkey’s borders with Syria and Iraq.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
The project has transformed its green spaces by creating new lakes and agricultural land.
The Ilisu project may be good for Turkey, but it is a disaster for Iraq, where the flow of water on the Tigris River in Iraq is expected to decline by an additional 65% in the coming years. There are no formal agreements between Iraq, Syria, Iran and Turkey regarding water management.
This year, rainfall rates have reached their lowest levels in 62 years, with massive forest fires spreading across the country due to low rainfall, drought and heat in 2021.
This means that Turkey’s need for water resources is not good news for Iraq downstream, and the results are clear: since 1970, the volume of water flowing on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers has declined from 40 and 45 billion cubic meters to 15 and 20 billion cubic meters annually, respectively.
Iraq needs about 77 billion cubic meters to meet its industrial, agricultural and civil needs, but the available amount of water is only 35 billion cubic meters, and this difference is considered a death sentence in slow motion.
Kurdistan Region.. Building Dams
What is worse is that the Kurdistan Region in Iraq is also considering building dams on all its tributaries, which will reduce the flow of water downstream even more.
*14 dams have been completed
*17 more are currently being built
*40 dams are in the planning stage
By the end of the project, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq will have up to 245 dams and reservoirs. It is an impressive project, but it will further reduce Baghdad’s share downstream. However, the federal government has failed to solve the country’s water deficit. After decades of arbitrary oversight, there has been no real progress in water management in agricultural and industrial practices.
Much of the country’s irrigation is still done in traditional ways. As a result, Iraq loses billions of cubic meters of water to evaporation and other wasteful practices. Agriculture consumes about 63 percent of Iraq’s total water capacity, but poor and ineffective management has left the country at the mercy of the desert.
Today, drought affects more than 90 percent of Iraq’s area, and the desert is creeping closer and closer on all fronts, especially in the south, where seawater is creeping deeper into the land at the same time. Iraq has lost more than half of its arable land since 1970 and is losing an additional 100 square kilometers of agricultural land every year.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Sandstorms like the one in Baghdad in 2022 used to happen twice a year, but now they happen 20 times a year. Iraqi academics say their country could experience 272 dusty days a year over the next two decades. Some seven million civilians are already suffering from water shortages and their secondary effects. The implications are far-reaching because 20% to 30% of Iraq’s workforce works in agriculture.
The lack of arable land:
* Threatens food security and raises food prices
* Affects job opportunities because shrinking farmland reduces the need for agricultural workers.
As land dries up and livelihoods are lost, people pack up and move elsewhere. This is a multi-layered crisis because the government had planned to invest in agriculture to diversify its economy away from hydrocarbons. Agriculture was supposed to be Iraq’s gateway to economic reform, but declining water resources make that plan unlikely to succeed.
"A drowning man grasps at a straw."
Iraq's existential crisis is not confined to its borders. Iraq lies at the heart of the Middle East, which means that destabilizing Iraq will seep into its surroundings and unleash a wave of extremism and radicalism. There are few democratic and institutional spaces available to resolve the expected complications.
Iraq's problem is therefore a problem for the entire world. When drought strikes the land and civilians feel marginalized, the rise of radicalism becomes inevitable. The last time Iraqis felt this, the jihadist forces founded the terrorist organization "ISIS", which later took over parts of Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere.
The terrorist organization committed a number of atrocities, including:
- Mass executions
- Bombings
- Slavery
- Spreading extremism around the world through its propaganda and violence.
ISIS was terrible, but its next version will be worse, because conditions will be even more desperate. When the water, food and energy crises turn Iraq into a hotbed of instability, desperate militants who have lost everything will join the new ISIS and then penetrate the wider region, driven by a desire for revenge.
The crisis is all the more urgent because of its timing. Iraq’s population is currently growing at an unsustainable rate, projected to exceed 63 million by 2040, up from 46 million today. By 2071, Iraq’s population will exceed 94 million, overtaking Iran and Turkey. But it will not be the end of the climb: the population will continue to grow unabated, reaching 111 million before the end of the century.
Demographic studies are difficult to predict, but if Iraq stays on the same trajectory, demand for water will increase while supply continues to decline.
Less water will lead to a steady decline in public services, food security, and health care collapse. By 2040, Iraq will be a country without rivers, and the Tigris and Euphrates will slowly die. The water may continue to flow marginally, but it will not reach its final outlet in the Gulf. All components of Iraqi society will be affected, rendering the country uninhabitable. This would be a radical reversal, given that Iraq was once known as the Fertile Crescent.
*Solutions to Iraq’s Water Crisis
Iraq’s water crisis seems daunting, but it is not insurmountable. There are small steps in the right direction.
In 2023, for example, construction began on a new $200 million desalination plant near Basra, with Japanese funding and technical support. The facility will serve about 400,000 people.
Nearby, a U.S. project is underway to upgrade water infrastructure for up to 650,000 people. At the same time, China is negotiating to build additional desalination plants to serve millions of Iraqis.
This is the right path for Iraq, but the federal government must do more—much more. It must:
upgrade its infrastructure;
build recycling
plants;
treat wastewater and establish the necessary facilities.
Iraq can take temporary action by tapping into groundwater, but more importantly, it must support farmers to use modern irrigation methods to reduce water waste. Baghdad must also find a way to suspend and reevaluate its dam project in Iraqi Kurdistan.
It is also essential to reach some sort of arrangement with Turkey, where the river originates. This could be described as climate diplomacy. The collapse of Iraq would not be in Turkey’s interest, because instability breeds more instability.
Turkish officials understand this, and have reached a memorandum of understanding with Turkey calling for an equitable flow of water downstream in Iraq. Although the memorandum lacks a legal framework and the terms have not yet been finalized, and the matter is still subject to negotiations, it is a step in the right direction.
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