18-05-2016 10:13 AM
A rise in oil prices and Saudi Arabia, controls the coherence of the markets - See more at: http://www.ikhnews.com/index.php?page=article&id=144340#sthash.nTcBRD1J.dpuf
More than a study of the markets suggest that oil prices will bounce back and will continue rising until next year, and restores the US Energy Information Agency's report is due to the growing needs of the market, while declining US oil production.
The report predicted last week that the Brent price ranges around $ 41 in 2016 and climb to $ 51 a barrel in 2017, and these figures are the highest between 6 to $ 10 a barrel, compared with the agency estimated two months ago.
There is a direct to rise rapidly reasons, including declining production in Canada, Libya and exit quantities from the market in recent weeks , prompting the price of a barrel to above $ 46 , but the root causes of the rise is the most important, which is to prove the new oil prices between $ 40 and $ 55. The cause high oil prices for years to intensify the efforts of American companies for the production of shale oil, and proved to the market that this profitable rise for producers and increased US production to more than 9.4 million barrels per day and surpassed the percentage of the US production of import share of the international market. with the collapse of prices since last year, the decline US production is expected to fall to 8.6 million barrels a day this year to fall back to 8.2 million barrels per day in 2017, and the reason is the decline in the profits of these companies.
According to US statistics that the cost of a barrel of US oil fields up to $ 21 while up the cost of a barrel of shale oil to more than US $ 23, and with the decline in international oil prices to below $ 30 months it has become difficult since this follow - up competitors and exploration, many companies were forced to suspend work projects for the extraction of shale oil or from the ocean, also stopped work on oil platforms and the number of platforms from last year 's 888 to 406 rigs in the first week of this month. the biggest beneficiary of this shock is Saudi Arabia 's output, estimated at best US statistics , the cost of a barrel of Saudi less than $ 9, and thus a good profit margin of the Saudi production remains especially with the production of large quantities per day, while forced US and European companies out of the market or to stop production waiting for the best opportunity.
This opportunity is coming back now and will be better if the price of a barrel to just above $ 70, but the number of platforms now the decline is not easy to bring it back to work and not easy to bring workers to their jobs quickly, and that the market remains vulnerable to the return of the Canadian production and to increase Saudi production and the risk of a return to production remains very high and the wait is better than the risk.
The past months have shown that Saudi policy not to cut production have achieved the interests of Saudi Arabia's production sector, so that Saudi Arabia maintained its share of the market, while US companies were forced to retreat from the production, which took place in 2013 and 2014 ratios.
Saudi Arabia also proved to be able to control the market, not only in the weeks or months that a witness interruption sources, and be able to cover the deficit in the market, but also to get rid of Tarian producers are interested only in the market when prices are high and bear lower prices.
Of low prices during the last period of declining Chinese consumption, and a slowing economy in the second-largest economic country in the world, but the return to the market activity and production indicators and thus the Chinese consumption began to return.
The agency US Energy Information that global energy consumption will escalate the amount of 1.4 million barrels by the end of this year, and the amount of 1.5 million barrels in the next year, and this is especially due to the high demand and consumption in China and India, with declining production from countries outside OPEC by 700 thousand barrels per day this year and 200,000 barrels next year.
This rise in consumption will be an additional window to reap good profits for the member states of OPEC, especially Saudi Arabia, where it keeps the lowest cost to produce a barrel, but other countries will not be able Thin opportunity because it is capable of huge, such as Iran or production because the cost of a barrel has elevated such as Venezuela and Nigeria, where the cost of up to more than $ 27.
Best expectations now point to the next, the survival of prices on the rise, and Saudi Arabia and OPEC maintains the largest share of the international market, China and India following the consumption and declining US production from outside OPEC.
- See more at: http://www.ikhnews.com/index.php?page=article&id=144340#sthash.nTcBRD1J.dpuf