Three Saudi factors determine the fate of its negotiations with Iran through the “mediation” of Iraq

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[size=52]Three Saudi factors determine the fate of its negotiations with Iran through the “mediation” of Iraq[/size]

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2022-12-27[/size]
[size=45]The British "Middle East Eye" website concluded that there are three factors that determine the fate of the potential breakthrough in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which witnessed many fluctuations since the Islamic revolution 43 years ago, through the severance of relations, and then the five rounds of dialogue hosted by Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]After the British report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, indicated that Saudi Arabia severed its relations with Iran in 2016, after demonstrators attacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran in response to the Saudi authorities’ execution of opposition cleric Nimr al-Nimr, the report indicated that the two countries engaged in five rounds of dialogue that achieved results. positive.[/size]
[size=45]“dead” negotiations[/size]
[size=45]Now, the report refers to some speculation that the Saudi-Iranian negotiations may be “dead,” pointing out that the relations between the two countries are “at their lowest levels,” after the outbreak of demonstrations inside Iran in protest of the death of the young woman, Mahsa Amini, last September, when the course of negotiations stopped. .[/size]
[size=45]According to the British report, Iran was subjected to a media campaign by Saudi Arabia through the Persian-speaking media, which aroused the dissatisfaction of Iranian officials, who accused the Saudis of trying to incite Iranian youth. He who builds a palace of glass should not throw stones at other people's houses.[/size]
[size=45]The report considered that these developments cast a dark shadow over the future of the Iranian-Saudi negotiations, and made Iran remove them from its agenda.[/size]
[size=45]After the report asked about Riyadh's assessment of what is happening, he said that despite Saudi Arabia working indirectly to fuel political turmoil inside Iran through the media, Riyadh and its Gulf neighbors have so far refused to express any official position on the Iranian demonstrations, and apparently chose a policy "Watch and wait".[/size]
[size=45]And after the report pointed out that in light of the stability of the situation in Iran, Saudi Arabia's position on a possible breakthrough with Tehran depends on three factors, which are the war in Yemen, the role of the US administration in mediating between them, and the ongoing normalization process with Israel.[/size]
[size=45]Yemen war[/size]
[size=45]The report described Yemen as "the most urgent issue facing Saudi Arabia," as Iran enjoys great influence through the Houthis, adding that Saudi Arabia and its people are tired of the war and are looking for an "honorable withdrawal" from it, but they are left with few options other than continuing. Their negotiations with the Iranians, especially since the armistice that lasted for 6 months ended last October.[/size]
[size=45]As for the Houthis, the report says that they have the "military upper hand" in Yemen, and they control the north of the country, and have appointed ambassadors for them in Iran and Syria, and they also have diplomatic representation in Iraq, Lebanon and Oman, indicating that they have put pressure on the Presidency Council, through Mobilization of the popular forces, recalling also that they targeted a cargo ship last October as part of an attempt to disrupt oil exports that provide important financial revenues for the authorities of the Presidential Council.[/size]
[size=45]The report stated that the Houthis threatened, days after the end of the armistice, to launch attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which would cause concern to foreign investors, adding that Saudi Arabia knows that the attack on oil facilities, such as the one that took place in 2019, could be repeated, which is what pushes Saudi Arabia. To be more willing to move forward with talks with Iran.[/size]
[size=45]America[/size]
[size=45]The report saw that the second factor that could influence it is the extent of the US administration's willingness to negotiate with Iran, explaining that while Washington said that the nuclear negotiations with Iran had stopped in light of the ongoing protests, at the same time the United States has a clear motive for a settlement. The nuclear issue, and it had previously welcomed the possibility of a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that in light of US President Joe Biden's gradual reduction of Washington's focus on the Middle East in favor of the policy of containing China, he will need regional calm in addition to guarantees that regional countries will establish strong alliances in order to ensure the protection of their security.[/size]
[size=45]The report indicated that Biden encouraged Iraq to play a mediating role in sponsoring talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as he mentioned the statements of former US President Barack Obama in the year 2016, in which he said that the chaos in the Middle East will not end until Saudi Arabia and Iran find a way to “ sharing their neighbourhood.”[/size]
[size=45]Secret Saudi-Israeli cooperation[/size]
[size=45]According to the report, the third factor is represented by Israel, explaining that Saudi Arabia and Israel have been cooperating with each other for a long time behind closed doors, even before the “Abraham Accords” added the official formula to the normalization process between Israel and other Gulf countries, noting also that Israel is now using the field air force to Saudi Arabia.[/size]
[size=45]The British report considered that during the negotiations that may take place in the future between Saudi Arabia and Israel, Riyadh can benefit from restoring its relations with Tehran as a tool to put pressure on Israel, and put Saudi Arabia in a stronger negotiating position, and force the Israelis to make major concessions to Riyadh, especially with regard to the announced Saudi position on Settlement of the Palestinian issue, before moving to normalization with Israel.[/size]
[size=45]The report said that relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran are still very tense, and it is not clear when it will be possible to hold the sixth negotiating round, but it added that the two countries realize that they cannot solve regional crises without their cooperation.[/size]
[size=45]way forward[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed to a statement by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian about a meeting he had with his Saudi counterpart on the sidelines of the "Baghdad-2" conference in Jordan, and his indication of Saudi Arabia's willingness to continue dialogue with Iran.[/size]
[size=45]The report also mentioned a statement made by Saudi Minister Faisal bin Farhan three months ago, in light of the height of the Iranian demonstrations, in which he said that Riyadh “definitely intends to establish a positive relationship with our neighbors in Iran.”[/size]
[size=45]The report also referred to a statement by Abdollahian in which he expressed Tehran's readiness to hold a joint meeting of foreign and defense ministers from the Gulf states and other neighboring countries.[/size]
[size=45]In a parallel context, the report recalled a statement by Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein last November, in which he said that Iran and Saudi Arabia had embarked on a “diplomatic path” between them, but the way forward is still unclear.[/size]
[size=45]Translation: Shafak News Agency[/size]
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