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Budget deficit management is entering the testing phase
The first 09/13/2023
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Baghdad: Huda Al-Azzawi
Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani’s statement about the difficulty of implementing the general tripartite budget issued by Law No. 13 of 2023 and the necessity of adhering to it the day before yesterday, Monday, raised various questions by specialists in economic and financial affairs regarding the possibility of changing the items of the tripartite budget, especially for the years 2024-2025, through Adding suggestions and items according to developments.
Advisor to the Prime Minister for Financial and Economic Affairs, Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, stated in an interview with “Al-Sabah”: “The general budget for three years was built on a hypothetical deficit of 64 trillion dinars for each year.”
Pointing out, “The government will not face the problem of the deficit this year (2023) in light of the rise in oil prices and reaching a high level, and there is an abundance achieved this year of about 23 trillion dinars, in addition to the delay in the budget and some expenses that have not been achieved.”
Saleh pointed out, “If the price of oil per barrel reaches $70, then in the next two years a deficit of less than 130 trillion dinars will be achieved for the years 2024 and 2025. This is a large number, and it is what the Prime Minister indicated regarding the issue of managing the deficit.”
For his part, the rapporteur of the Parliamentary Finance Committee for the fourth session, Dr. Ahmed Al-Saffar, said in an interview with “Al-Sabah”: “The budget law is obligatory for the government to implement it from the beginning, but the difficulties that the government will face are the most prominent of the changes in oil prices, because Iraq is a rentier state and the budget depends to a large extent on On oil revenues, noting that non-oil revenues are not small, but all successive governments have been unable to control them.”
He stated, “The problem facing the government now and its signs began to become clear over the past few days: regarding the share of the Kurdistan region and the great disagreement in the process of calculating non-oil revenues in the region, as well as the interpretation of the provisions of the budget and the financial management law, in addition to the 50% of revenues that must be paid.” It goes to the federal government, and there is disagreement about defining or naming what federal revenues are, which need negotiations and explanations due to political interference in the work of the government, budget legislation, and the use of public money for electoral propaganda and political gain, and the numbers of social welfare that have begun to increase significantly and other categories that have burdened the operational budget. A huge burden, which exceeded 63 trillion dinars annually.”
Regarding the implementation of the investment budget, Al-Saffar asked: “Will the Prime Minister be able to address the rampant and expanding corruption in the process of implementing investment projects? Especially since there are more than 6,000 lagging projects, and all of this in light of the presence of a broad government program. Will the government be able to implement the investment budget?” Implement it?
He stressed, “The government will face major problems, but in the coming year it is possible to submit proposals to the budget, so the first year will be mandatory and the subsequent two years are subject to amendment according to the developments that appear and the government’s needs for funds, and it is possible to submit a complementary project proposal for the purpose of changing, adding and deleting items in the budget.” Based on the indicators that determine the structure of the general budget.”
Al-Saffar pointed out, “There is a problem that must be paid attention to, related to the central bank, which still does not control the dollar exchange rate, and the vast difference between the official price, which amounts to 1,300 dinars, and the parallel price, which reached 1,556 dinars, that is, 26 points more, and this is a problem.” It is significant that must be addressed, as the greater the difference, the government bears more burdens.”
Edited by: Muhammad Al-Ansari
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