Many Iraqi lawmakers vowed to evict U.S. troops from their country after a U.S. air strike near the Baghdad airport in early January killed Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, commander of the Iran-backed, mostly Shiite militias collectively known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). That hasn’t happened, but the Donald J. Trump administration could be in the middle of evicting itself.
The United States recently announced plans to reduce the U.S. troop contingent in Iraq from 5,200 to 3,000, and in late September, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened to evacuate the entire U.S. Embassy in Baghdad if attacks by Iran’s proxy forces continued. Since then, rocket attacks on the U.S. embassy and U.S. military installations in Iraq appear to have stopped, but IED attacks on Iraqi-operated convoys supplying U.S. diplomatic and military forces have continued. This de-escalation is probably due to Iran’s desire to avoid a preelection crisis that could help reelect President Trump. Now the militias have offered to suspend rocket attacks on U.S. troops if the Iraqi government presents a timetable for their withdrawal.
It could make sense for the United States to downsize its diplomatic mission in Baghdad—the largest in the world—as suggested by my CFR colleague Steven A. Cook. But it would be foolhardy to withdraw all of its troops or diplomats from Iraq. That would, in fact, give Iran precisely what it wants. As long as U.S. forces remain in Iraq, they can counter Iran’s influence, which remains undiminished despite all of the sanctions the Trump administration has imposed on Tehran.
Iran is trying to “Lebanonize” Iraq: to allow a pro-Western government to rule in theory while real power is wielded by Iran-backed militias. In Lebanon, that force is Hezbollah. In Iraq, it is militias such as Kata’ib Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq. The most important work on mapping the influence of Iranian militias was performed by Hisham al-Hashimi, an Iraqi scholar who had advised the Iraqi government and at one time fought as an insurgent against U.S. forces.
Hashimi found that “the gradual state capture by the militias, premised on reconstruction and reconciliation after a civil war, is one part sectarian warfare, one part expropriation and organized crime, and all parts Iranian hegemony.” The militias, he showed, “have wrested pervasive control over much of the Iraqi economy: from airport customs, construction projects, oilfields, sewage, water, highways, colleges, public and private property, tourism sites, presidential palaces; and the extortion of restaurants, cafes, cargo trucks, fishermen, farmers, displaced families.”
Hashimi paid for his research with his life: on July 6, he was assassinated by gunmen outside his home in Baghdad in what was widely seen as an operation carried out by the PMF. His findings, quoted above, were reported by his friend, Syrian-American security analyst Hassan Hassan, who spoke to Hashimi two hours before his death.
Ever since the self-proclaimed Islamic State’s caliphate in Iraq was largely smashed in 2017, Iraqi prime ministers have been trying, with little success, to reduce the power of the PMF, whose raison d’être was to fight the Sunni extremists. The latest to try is Mustafa al-Kadhimi, a former head of Iraqi intelligence who ascended to the prime minister’s office in May following popular protests over corruption and unemployment. In late June, he ordered the arrest of fourteen members of Kata’ib Hezbollah. But after gunmen in pickup trucks drove into Baghdad’s Green Zone (the seat of government) and demanded their release, most of the men were let go. They were then filmed burning U.S. flags and stomping on photographs of Kadhimi.
The United States should continue to support Kadhimi, the most pro-Western prime minister Iraq has had since the fall of Saddam Hussein. He is the best bet not only to rein in Iran’s proxies, but also to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State—a terrorist organization that is still reported to have ten thousand fighters in Iraq and Syria and at least $100 million in financial reserves. The two goals are closely linked: the more that Iran-backed militias control the Iraqi state, the more that Iraqi Sunnis will turn to Sunni extremist groups such as the Islamic State for protection. Conversely, the more that the Iraqi state can appear to be nonsectarian, the more likely Sunnis are to reject the Islamic State’s blandishments.
The United States should continue to push for a more nonsectarian state by assisting the training of Iraqi security forces, helping to advise Iraqi leaders, and providing crucial assistance in areas such as intelligence, targeting, and logistics. That can only be done if the United States maintains a substantial presence on the ground—three thousand troops minimum—despite the risks of Iran-backed attacks.
https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/iran-backed-militias-iraq-poised-expand-influence
The United States recently announced plans to reduce the U.S. troop contingent in Iraq from 5,200 to 3,000, and in late September, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened to evacuate the entire U.S. Embassy in Baghdad if attacks by Iran’s proxy forces continued. Since then, rocket attacks on the U.S. embassy and U.S. military installations in Iraq appear to have stopped, but IED attacks on Iraqi-operated convoys supplying U.S. diplomatic and military forces have continued. This de-escalation is probably due to Iran’s desire to avoid a preelection crisis that could help reelect President Trump. Now the militias have offered to suspend rocket attacks on U.S. troops if the Iraqi government presents a timetable for their withdrawal.
Countering Iran in Iraq
It could make sense for the United States to downsize its diplomatic mission in Baghdad—the largest in the world—as suggested by my CFR colleague Steven A. Cook. But it would be foolhardy to withdraw all of its troops or diplomats from Iraq. That would, in fact, give Iran precisely what it wants. As long as U.S. forces remain in Iraq, they can counter Iran’s influence, which remains undiminished despite all of the sanctions the Trump administration has imposed on Tehran.
Iran is trying to “Lebanonize” Iraq: to allow a pro-Western government to rule in theory while real power is wielded by Iran-backed militias. In Lebanon, that force is Hezbollah. In Iraq, it is militias such as Kata’ib Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq. The most important work on mapping the influence of Iranian militias was performed by Hisham al-Hashimi, an Iraqi scholar who had advised the Iraqi government and at one time fought as an insurgent against U.S. forces.
Hashimi found that “the gradual state capture by the militias, premised on reconstruction and reconciliation after a civil war, is one part sectarian warfare, one part expropriation and organized crime, and all parts Iranian hegemony.” The militias, he showed, “have wrested pervasive control over much of the Iraqi economy: from airport customs, construction projects, oilfields, sewage, water, highways, colleges, public and private property, tourism sites, presidential palaces; and the extortion of restaurants, cafes, cargo trucks, fishermen, farmers, displaced families.”
Hashimi paid for his research with his life: on July 6, he was assassinated by gunmen outside his home in Baghdad in what was widely seen as an operation carried out by the PMF. His findings, quoted above, were reported by his friend, Syrian-American security analyst Hassan Hassan, who spoke to Hashimi two hours before his death.
The Islamic State’s Looming Threat
Ever since the self-proclaimed Islamic State’s caliphate in Iraq was largely smashed in 2017, Iraqi prime ministers have been trying, with little success, to reduce the power of the PMF, whose raison d’être was to fight the Sunni extremists. The latest to try is Mustafa al-Kadhimi, a former head of Iraqi intelligence who ascended to the prime minister’s office in May following popular protests over corruption and unemployment. In late June, he ordered the arrest of fourteen members of Kata’ib Hezbollah. But after gunmen in pickup trucks drove into Baghdad’s Green Zone (the seat of government) and demanded their release, most of the men were let go. They were then filmed burning U.S. flags and stomping on photographs of Kadhimi.
The United States should continue to support Kadhimi, the most pro-Western prime minister Iraq has had since the fall of Saddam Hussein. He is the best bet not only to rein in Iran’s proxies, but also to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State—a terrorist organization that is still reported to have ten thousand fighters in Iraq and Syria and at least $100 million in financial reserves. The two goals are closely linked: the more that Iran-backed militias control the Iraqi state, the more that Iraqi Sunnis will turn to Sunni extremist groups such as the Islamic State for protection. Conversely, the more that the Iraqi state can appear to be nonsectarian, the more likely Sunnis are to reject the Islamic State’s blandishments.
The United States should continue to push for a more nonsectarian state by assisting the training of Iraqi security forces, helping to advise Iraqi leaders, and providing crucial assistance in areas such as intelligence, targeting, and logistics. That can only be done if the United States maintains a substantial presence on the ground—three thousand troops minimum—despite the risks of Iran-backed attacks.
https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/iran-backed-militias-iraq-poised-expand-influence
» An economic center warns of government decisions to raise fuel prices within the 2023 budget
» The Minister of Planning is discussing with the regional director of the International Monetary Fund
» Representative agriculture: Turkey's water releases are a temporary tactic to pacify Iraq
» Parliamentary action on political leaders to legislate a law before submitting it to Parliament
» The National: Baghdad is seeking an agreement with the region to resume oil exports at full capacity
» Parliamentary Human Rights talks about the imminent enactment of three important laws
» Al-Fatlawi: Türkiye has an economic opportunity to develop its relations with Iraq
» The President of the Judicial Council visits the Federal Court in the Emirates
» The markets of Baghdad and Kurdistan are closing down at dollar prices
» Al-Sudani’s advisor reveals the reasons for the continued rise of the dollar and confirms a “imminen
» A government official is likely to delay the payment of pensioners' salaries today
» The Iraqi Central Bank’s sales of dollars increased to more than 238 million
» Finance urges the participation of international experts in the process of developing the performanc
» For the first time.. the Anti-Money Laundering Council is moving to impose banking dealings in the s
» Iraq receives compensation of about 70 million dollars for the effects of climate change
» Kurdistan announces the distribution of more than two billion dinars to farmers within 3 years
» Investment: projects that simulate the experience of the city of "Al-Rafail" in 3 governorates
» The Central Bank talks about the "signs" of its measures: the dollar began to decline against the di
» More than 5% share of renewable energy in the electricity capacity in Iraq
» Al-Halbousi's deputy talks about the salaries of state employees
» The Parliamentary Foreign Ministry calls for resolving the “Ambassadors’ file”
» Parliament gives priority to 4 laws out of 127
» A political welcome to end the "war mandate" on Iraq
» New talk from the Central Bank regarding the exchange rate and the possibility of printing a denomin
» International interest in financing small and medium enterprises in Iraq
» Deputy for the framework: Parliamentary agreement to return the budget to the government
» Al-Sudani: We will provide the necessary environment for the local elections scheduled for this year
» The President of the Republic stresses the importance of consolidating cooperation and societal coex
» Kurdistan Union: International pressures behind setting the date for the regional parliament electio
» Israel enters into a crisis because of "Kurdistan's oil"
» Iraq is the fifth largest oil exporter to South Korea last February
» Parliamentary Finance reveals the reasons for the delay in reading the 2023 budget
» A new decline in dollar prices in the local markets
» The central bank’s dollar sales increased by 16%
» Customs Authority employees announce an open sit-in until their demands are met
» Iraq is among the list of countries with the most US bonds.. Here is the order
» Low prices of “foreign and Iraqi” gold in Baghdad markets
» A directive from the Minister of Interior “Abdul Amir Al-Shammari” regarding the employees of the In
» “Do not rush to celebrate.” A British view of the French court's decision on Kurdistan's oil: an emp
» Al-Mandalawi: Minimum salaries should be sufficient to meet the needs of employees and face market f
» An agreement to approve the amendment of the salary scale for employees
» The World Bank calls on Iraq to take advantage of the oil recovery by switching to renewable energy
» The Federal Court postponed consideration of extending the work of the Kurdistan Parliament to May
» MPs upset about not presenting the budget: We fear behind-the-scenes agreements
» Al-Sudani does not act as a framer, and the latter fears that he will eat his fans in the elections
» The judiciary clarifies the mechanism of control over financial institutions and the activities of t
» The Minister of Labor announces the disbursement of a financial reward for retired workers
» Mandalawi confirms Iraq's endeavor to strengthen its foreign relations and frame them with solid agr
» Minister of Electricity: There will be an increase in production and more stability next summer
» Minister of Water Resources: Changing locations in institutions is important
» Al-Maliki: My hand is still extended to Al-Sadr and other politicians, and I refuse to keep the riva
» Prime Minister: We have initiated a set of administrative reforms and decisive initiatives to combat
» The Minister of Finance is discussing with the International Monetary Fund support for economic refo
» The Minister of Oil announces the start of gas investment operations in the Akkas field at a rate of
» Saudi Arabia makes proposals for the development of agriculture in Iraq
» Central Bank: We have taken a set of packages to support the strength of the dinar, and its signs be
» The Central Bank sets its procedures to support the strength of the Iraqi dinar
» In Baghdad.. A meeting brings together the ambassadors of Saudi Arabia and Iran
» The US Senate votes to cancel the authorizations for the Iraq war
» Oil prices are declining.. What is the relationship of Kurdistan supplies?
» The exchange rates of the dollar in the Iraqi market today
» Customs Authority employees announce an open sit-in.. These are their demands (photos)
» Judy, MilitiaMan, Walkingstick and more......Wednesday AM 3-29-2023
» The Turkish Energy Minister denies fining his country $1.4 billion in the case of exporting Kurdista
» Integrity: the arrest of a wanted former trade official after his return from outside Iraq
» Report: Paving the Silk Road passes through pumping more Chinese loans to transit countries
» The Finance Committee breaks its silence: Al-Halbousi is alone discussing the budget in his private
» What is the benefit of the return of Iranian-Saudi relations to Iraq? Parliament answers
» Ports: 3 Travelers Were Arrested In Possession Of 522 Master Card Cards Intended For Smuggling
» Seizing A Factory For Industrial Fraud And Counterfeiting Trademarks, And Arresting Its Owner In Bag
» Iraq and Romania are discussing a mechanism for mutual coordination to support expertise between the
» The Agricultural Bank launches car purchase advances
» Al-Sudani calls for solving citizens' problems without waiting for the Prime Minister's directives
» Parliamentary Work: We have obligated local and foreign companies to employ the Iraqi workforce and
» Iraq Ports Company: The completion rate of the Al-Faw Grand Port project has reached more than 44.5%
» The head of the Service Council mortgages the launch of appointments to two issues and talks about t
» The Iraq Stock Exchange ends the day's trading, down 0.49%
» The arrest of a former official in the Ministry of Commerce after his return from abroad
» “Al-Kazemi incites Washington by inciting against Al-Sudani.” An American network warns the former p
» Deputy likely date of inclusion of the draft budget law on the agenda of Parliament
» The Central Bank of Iraq announces the imminent issuance of a decision regarding the possibility of
» Rashid: The United Nations has shown interest in helping Iraq solve water problems
» Exposing corruption and waste of public money worth 123 billion dinars in Basra (documents)
» After abolishing it years ago.. Restoring the provincial councils for the benefit or for the interes
» With rising prices, drought and lack of subsidies threaten the livestock market in Iraq
» The Iraqi Central Bank wants to issue a denomination of 20,000 dinars: we will issue a decision to p
» International trade obliges Iraq to pay compensation to Ankara in the arbitration case
» Declining Central Bank of Iraq sales of dollars
» An Iraqi bank launches car purchase advances
» International Trade orders Iraq to pay compensation to Ankara in the arbitration case
» Experts: Growing crude sales to China reflect positively on the economy
» Integrity monitors 5,000 lagging projects worth $20 billion over 5 years
» The maximum limit is 150 million.. An Iraqi company determines deposit compensation rates
» DNO begins closing oil fields in Kurdistan
» Minister of Labor We await approval of the budget to include 600,000 families with social protection
» Al-Sudani calls for expediting registration for health insurance: services at subsidized prices
» Investors Association: Foreign investors are now selling their shares from Iraqi companies
» Baghdad and Muscat are finalizing the memorandum of understanding in the field of combating corrupti