Three pessimistic scenarios... Reproducing the "early elections" scene with Al-Kazemi's touch

POSTED ON[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] BY [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

[size=52]Three pessimistic scenarios... Reproducing the "early elections" scene with Al-Kazemi's touch[/size]

[size=45]On Friday, the US “Al-Monitor” website identified three “pessimistic” scenarios regarding the stalemate in forming the new Iraqi government, and while it was likely that a government would be formed “weak and prone to collapse,” it confirmed that the elections that took place did not bring “practical solutions” but rather “ I poured oil on the fire.”[/size]
[size=45]The American website mentioned in a report; "The elections last October, which were supposed to lead to a solution to the political crisis in Iraq after more than a year of demonstrations," he pointed out, "the elections did not bring practical solutions, but rather poured fuel on the fire."[/size]
[size=45]The American website indicated that “the elections resulted in two axes facing each other, the first being the tripartite (cross-sectarian) alliance between the Sadrist movement and the Sunni alliance (consisting of the blocs of Muhammad al-Halbousi and Khamis al-Khanjar), and the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Masoud Barzani, an axis that managed to obtain a majority of no less For 167 seats, which allowed him to support the selection of Parliament Speaker Al-Halbousi, and the second axis was represented by the Coordination Framework Alliance.[/size]
[size=45]And the US report indicated that “the tripartite alliance, despite the seats it obtained, faced great challenges in obtaining an absolute majority of two-thirds of the representatives, in order to choose a president of the republic,” noting that “the coalition’s attempt to lure about 40 independent parliamentarians to join it, did not secure it for him.” The total number of 220 members of parliament.[/size]
[size=45]The website stated that "the coordinating framework consisting of Shiite political forces, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and a small Sunni bloc led by Muthanna al-Samarrai, was able to impose one third of the obstruction preventing the tripartite alliance from starting to form the government," noting that "the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, after failing three times. In choosing a president of the republic, he stopped efforts to form a government, passed the ball to the coordination framework for forming a government, and gave him a 40-day deadline to do so since last March 31.[/size]
[size=45]The report added, "None of the two groups is able to form a government alone, and therefore the expected challenges are to continue for a long time," raising the question, "What are the possible scenarios?"[/size]
[size=45]Regarding the proposed solutions, the report identified the first scenario represented by “the two sides reached an agreement to form a consensus government according to the system that was common after 2003, and thus each party gets a share in the government according to the number of seats it occupies,” but the report “ruled out this from happening in view of the Al-Sadr's demands to form a majority government, and his refusal to reach an agreement with the coordination framework.[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that "Al-Sadr tried several times to dismantle the coordination framework by persuading some of his forces (Fatah led by Hadi al-Amiri, or State of Law led by Nuri al-Maliki) to join it independently, but the coordination framework appears strong, rejecting any offer that does not include them all in the new government." .[/size]
[size=45]The report emphasized; "At the same time, Al-Sadr is under great pressure from his popular base, which he promised since his election campaign to take over the prime ministership, and he has already nominated his cousin Jaafar Al-Sadr, and now it will be difficult for him to retract this pledge because it may harm him popularly in the upcoming elections."[/size]
[size=45]The report moved to the second scenario, which, according to the American website, is represented by “the alliance of al-Sadr, al-Halbousi and Barzani, obtaining the remaining number required to choose the president of the republic, and progress towards forming the new government, recalling that the tripartite alliance has already entered into negotiations with potential allies such as the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and independent deputies.” However, achieving this goal seems difficult, especially after he failed to achieve it three times before.[/size]
[size=45]The third scenario relates to “the continuation of the current government of Mustafa Al-Kazemi as a caretaker government, then organizing other early elections sometime during the year 2023.”[/size]
[size=45]And the report indicated that “this scenario is proposed in view of the fact that the final constitutional deadline for forming a government has passed with the failure of the parties to form it,” noting that “the two axes will compete to impose their control and influence in Parliament and try to change the electoral law for their benefit in the upcoming elections, which will generate another source of conflict between them. “.[/size]
[size=45]The American report explained by saying; “Under these circumstances, the political stalemate is likely to continue for a long time,” and the conflict between the two parties is likely not to be resolved, which means that any newly formed government will be weak and liable to collapse quickly.[/size]
[size=45]Translation: Shafak Agency[/size]
[size=45][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]