International oil prices are on the rise in the second half of 2017

International oil prices are on the rise in the second half of 2017



02/09/2017 


Although world oil prices have stabilized above $ 50 a barrel for more than a month, oil prices are likely to find support during the period amid unrest in Libya and Nigeria, as well as a decline in US inventories and an increase in oil imports.

Oil prices last month registered a price of $ 50 to $ 52.5 per barrel, a level that is high compared to pre-oil production cuts between Opec members and non-OPEC members.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been trying to cut oil output by 1.8 million barrels per day since January, in agreement with a number of independent producers led by Russia until March next year to support oil prices.

The US Energy Information Administration said crude inventories in the United States fell last week by 3.3 million barrels in the week ending August 18, against analysts' forecasts of a 3.5 million barrel decline.

Gasoline inventories fell by 1.2 million barrels, while analysts in a Reuters poll forecast a drop of 643 thousand barrels, in addition to the increase of US imports of crude last week by 605 thousand barrels per day.

Among the reasons that drive oil to rise is the return of unrest to the oil regions again in the OPEC countries Libya and Nigeria exempt from the restrictions of the reduction agreement, where the field of spark the largest oil field in Libya, a decline in production by one third because of protests at the export terminal in Zwetina, Which stopped the export shipments, which led to the decline of production of the field from 300 thousand barrels per day to only 200 thousand barrels, which was expressed by the Bloomberg agency that after months of increased oil production, it seems that Libya is currently suffering production disruptions.

The same thing happened in Nigeria, where hundreds of demonstrators stormed an oil facility in Nigeria last week, leading to export cuts from the port of Pune. Nigeria is suffering serious unrest last year as a result of the attacks in the Niger Delta.

Nigeria's oil minister said Nigeria's production excluding condensates was less than 1.8 million bpd in July.

Goldman Sachs said global demand for oil remained strong as demand for oil grew 1.54 million barrels per day on a year-on-year basis, according to data from America, Japan, India, China, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Spain and France, who account for 52 percent of global demand and 80% of its growth.

The data also showed oil demand growth of 1.81 million barrels per day in the second quarter 2017.

Goldman Sachs expects demand growth of 1.60 million barrels per day in the second half of the year, and that the price of world benchmark crude will reach $ 52 a barrel in 2017 and global real GDP will grow 3.7 percent.

Kuwaiti Oil Minister Essam al-Marzouqi said oil inventories in recent weeks had fallen more than expected. As an example, he said that inventories fell in one week 6.5 million barrels per day, while the forecast was to decline will be about 2 million barrels per day.

The International Energy Agency said global demand for oil will grow at a faster pace than expected in 2017, which will contribute to reducing inflation.

The agency revised its forecast for demand growth in 2017 to 1.5 million bpd, compared to 1.4 million bpd in its previous monthly report, and said it expected demand to grow by an additional 1.4 million bpd next year.


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