MilitiaMan: The Alak interview has told us that they are at a 6/1 (16.5%) good to bad ratio with loans. If you have read that recent interview with him, he tells us that they have loans of 37 Billion Dinar of good and 6 billion Dinars worth ($5,000,000.00 USD) of bad. It is not a bad ratio for what they have been through to date.
My point is that the value of the 6 bln Dinars is key that Alak points it out, imo. Why? Well it gives a value of that 6 bln. Alak cannot openly come out and tell us a rate or a date literally to the tee.. But, he can in my opinion indirectly point us to it with forward guidance.
If we look at the value he places on the 6 billion dinar you get $.83 per unit or dinar in dollar terms. 6 bln IQD = 5 mln USD or $.83 per USD. So then that means 37 Billion Dinars equates to $30,710,000.00 USD.
Now remember that he can't tell you yet, that the zeros are dropped, as they haven't as far as I can tell, yet. But, we expect them to when the time is right as he clearly taught us through articles.
The 6 billion dinars becomes 6 million once they delete three zeros off the exchange rate and thus 37 billion dinars becomes 37 million by definition.
So by applying the value they gave us and dropping 3 zeros off they exchange rate we get a 6/1 ratio on loans and the value of them. There are two separate issues there. Good and bad loans and the value of the bad loans which when broken down tells us a relationship to the USD per Alaks words not mine..
Just as they do with the AMF / AAD by the value of their loans. The AMF doesn't actively publish imo a rate, but, they show us the loan amounts and approximate value of them in articles based on relationships with the USD.
There is a recent one in regard to Tunisia and the AAD through the AMF.. We have to find the loans and use them to do the math to get an idea of what the AAD exchange rate is. We have learned that the AAD will have a relationship with the IQD.
So Alak, imo is telling those that need to know (Regional Trading Partners) that would need warning as to what he is doing and where they stand in an indirect way. That imo is forward guidance used by Central Bankers..
So the recent data imo fits this model and may be spot on what we can expect into the future. imo.. So from the Interview he again noted 37 Billion Dinars good and 6 Billion Dinars Bad. He noted the value of the bad were valued at $5,000,000 USD
So if Alak does mean loans (contracts, which will have to be adjusted.) and he deletes the zeros to get things on a level playing field we need to make apples apples. So drop three zeros off 6 billion dinars you have 6 million dinar loan worth $5,000,000 or $.83 per unit.
Making apples apples to get the value of the 37 billion Dinars drop three zeros and you get 37 million Dinars. 37 million Dinars x $.83 you get $30,710,000. So 30,710,000.00USD / (divided) $5,000,000.00 USD = $x.xx per unit USD in loans and i and a relationship to the value of those loans in us currency, imo..
We shall see one day soon imo if this holds true or not. If not, they sure show good reason for that it is on their mind. For an acting Central Bank Governor to talk in terms of that of the above in an interview, is powerful imo.. Back that up with the article WS posted and follow up with Articles posted by Delta..
So as noted below WS brought us: 100/120= $.83. Go back to Alak above talking about loans. 6/5= $.83. Do the math and then see if you smile? imo.. Lets see if this data has legs.. We shall see imo.. ~ MM