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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Many Topics Including The Oldest Dinar Community. Copyright © 2006-2020


    A "wacky" paragraph in the current fiscal year may "nibble" the surplus money from the oil price and

    Rocky
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    A "wacky" paragraph in the current fiscal year may "nibble" the surplus money from the oil price and Empty A "wacky" paragraph in the current fiscal year may "nibble" the surplus money from the oil price and

    Post by Rocky Wed 12 May 2021, 8:37 am


    [size=30]A "wacky" paragraph in the current fiscal year may "nibble" the surplus money from the oil price and demolish optimism by closing the deficit.

    2021-05-12
    [/size]
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    Yes Iraq: Baghdad

    The responsible and popular Iraqi authorities are counting on the rise in oil prices and the surplus funds that will be realized from the difference in the price of a barrel of oil in the budget set at $ 45 a barrel, compared to the realistic price that exceeded $ 65 and may touch $ 70 during the second half of this year.
    However, this optimism may collide with another expected reality, as the failure of the expected non-oil revenues to "eat" the expected surplus revenues from oil prices, which means that the deficit will not be easily filled by the expected financial surplus from oil prices.
    The Iraqi Economists Network says in a statement that "Yes Iraq" received a copy of it, that "through our follow-up of international oil prices since the beginning of this year, we have noticed a significant increase from the annual rate adopted in the Federal Budget Law for the year 2021, at $ 45 a barrel." The lawmakers had expected to collect revenues from exporting crude oil at about 81 trillion dinars, based on an annual export rate of 3,250 million barrels per day and an exchange rate of 1,450 dinars to one dollar. However, the amount of oil revenues that were mentioned in the budget law published in the Iraqi newspaper Al-Waqa'yat includes an arithmetic error, as it should be 77.4 trillion dinars, equivalent to 53.4 billion dollars (3,250 million barrels x 45 dollars x 365 days = 53.4 billion One dollar x 1450 = 77.4 trillion dinars) instead of 81 trillion dinars. The result of this accounting error increased the planned deficit to 32,3 trillion dinars instead of 28,7 trillion dinars, as reported in the Iraqi newspaper Al-Waqae '.
    He adds: “According to the data of the Iraqi oil export company SOMO, the actual export rate during the first four months of this year was 2.93 barrels per day from the Basra and Kirkuk fields (and without the oil exports from the Kurdistan region?). The average export price per barrel during the first four months was slightly less than $ 60, an increase of $ 15 over the rate of the estimated price fixed in the budget law.
     
    He pointed out, “Assuming that this level of prices continues until the end of the year, we expect in the basic scenario that oil revenues will reach 64 billion dollars. Then an amount of 5.5 billion dollars will be added to it for the exports of the Kurdistan region agreed upon in the budget law, at a rate of 250 thousand barrels per day. Thus, we expect Iraq's total oil revenues to rise to 69.5 billion dollars as a projection instead of the planned 53.4 billion dollars, an increase of about 16 billion dollars, equivalent to about 23 trillion dinars. On this basis, the planned and corrected oil revenues will rise by us to approximately 100.8 trillion dinars. After adding the planned non-oil revenues by 20 trillion dinars, we will get the total budget revenues of 120.8 trillion dinars in exchange for total planned and corrected revenues instead of 101.3 trillion dinars as stated in the law, with an increase of 19.5 trillion dinars according to our projections.
     
    In the optimistic scenario, we assume a breakthrough in the Corona crisis during the second half of this year, and at the very least in the advanced industrial countries, which will lead to an increase in global demand for crude oil. Assuming the commitment of the OPEC Plus (+) group to the current levels of production, it is possible that the average global price of crude oil will rise to approximately $ 70 per barrel, which means achieving an annual average price for Iraqi oil exports of about $ 65 during the year 2021. On this basis we expect a rise in Iraq's oil revenues amounted to about 77 billion dollars, equivalent to about 112 trillion dinars, an increase of about 35 trillion dinars over the revised plan in the 2021 budget.
     
    At first glance, it seems to some that the amount of increased oil revenues in the first basic scenario will reduce the planned and corrected deficit from 32.3 trillion dinars to a planned deficit estimated at 13 trillion dinars, and in the second optimistic scenario to a planned and corrected surplus of 2.7 trillion dinars. In this regard, we must draw attention to the fact that this type of in-depth and offensive calculations to economic professionalism does not take into account that the level of actual deficit at the end of the year will in turn be subject to a second variable, which is the difference between the planned and actual non-oil revenues achieved at the end the year. Therefore, we call on government agencies and members of the House of Representatives to be careful in their statements in the media, due to the possible confusion in public opinion.
     
    نحن نعتقد بأن الإيرادات غير النفطية المخطط لها أن ترتفع من 7 ترليون فعلي في عام 2020 الى 20 ترليون دينار تمثل تقديرات غير واقعية، ونتوقع بالمقابل أن تكون بحدود 12 ترليون دينار في هذا العام في أحسن الاحوال بسبب الفساد المستشري في الجهاز الاداري الحكومي والذي يحدد من تحقيق هذا النوع من الايرادات من جانب ، والانكماش الاقتصادي المستمر في هذه السنة بسبب جائحة كورونا من جانب آخر. وعلى هذا الاساس نتوقع ان يبلغ حجم العجز الفعلي في السيناريو الاول 22 ترليون دينار وهو الارجح مما يعني استمرار الحاجة الى الاقتراض لضمان تمويل الانفاق الجاري ورواتب الموظفين.  أما السيناريو المتفائل الثاني فسوف يترتب علية عجز بمقدار 9 ترليون دينار.  وفي هذه المناسبة نود التأكيد على طروحاتنا السابقة بصدد البديل الوحيد للاقتراض، الا وهو الحد من هدر الموارد المالية وترشيد الانفاق الجاري والقضاء على الفساد المالي والاداري.
     
    In all cases, it is not expected that the structural financial crisis associated with the nature of the rentier state will end and achieve financial sustainability this year, as the founding member of the network, Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Salih, explained in his recent research entitled Iraqi financial sustainability and the matrix of tax restrictions published on our network website in April 2021.
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