Al-Monitor: The victory of the independents will push them to ally themselves with those who share t

[size=52]Al-Monitor: The victory of the independents will push them to ally themselves with those who share their views in Parliament[/size]

[size=45]Translation / Hamed Ahmed[/size]
[size=45]The results of the early Iraqi elections came as a surprise to everyone, with their winners and losers, indicating a new political phase that the country will live in. The vote tally announced by the Independent High Electoral Commission was somewhat shocking to some political parties, including the Fatah Alliance led by Hadi al-Amiri, whose seats fell to less than half.[/size]
[size=45]Meanwhile, the State Forces coalition led by Ammar al-Hakim, who allied with the victory bloc of former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, won only five seats, while al-Hakim alone won 19 seats in the previous 2018 elections.[/size]
[size=45]The new election law led to a major victory for the Sadrists in this election campaign. Preliminary results revealed that the Sadrist movement won 73 seats, while the coalition led by Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi came in second place by winning 43 seats, and the State of Law coalition led by former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki came in third place by winning 37 seats.[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, the new law is expected to reduce the influence of traditional political parties. Nevertheless, some of them were able to benefit from it through social influence and increase their influence by managing their candidates in the electoral districts.[/size]
[size=45]Sajjad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst and researcher at the Century Foundation for Studies, told Al-Monitor, “The current election law is generally positive and better than the previous law, but in the future it needs some modification to prepare the electoral conditions for reform and change. The parties are known for their electoral competition, which is why some of them used the law to their advantage.” "Change is coming, but it will be gradual," said analyst Jiyad. Some of the new faces and some independent parties have succeeded in achieving a great victory in these elections, but they do not have a significant impact on the political scene. Therefore, the new parliament is similar to the outgoing parliament with regard to the hegemony aspect of the major political powers.”[/size]
[size=45]In contrast to the previous law, which considered each governorate as an electoral district, the new law relied on multiple electoral districts. Therefore, the matter was not in the interest of parties that do not have popular bases that exist in certain geographical areas. In Dhi Qar province, which was considered the capital of the Iraqi protests for more than a year, the new law favored the extension movement, which emerged nearly a year ago from within the protest movement and is headed by political activist Alaa Al-Rikabi. The extension movement managed to win ten seats, five in Dhi Qar and another five in three southern governorates as well, relying on the votes of protesters who are tired of the Iraqi political class. These elections, which took place in accordance with the new election law, have clearly shown that the political organization of the popular bases is the backbone of access to Parliament. This included independents who adopted their communities and clans in their regions and cities to vote for them.[/size]
[size=45]Nevertheless, the Sadrist bloc was the biggest winner thanks to the new election law. In the past years, the Sadrists worked to pass an election law for several regions. The October 2019 protests were an opportunity for the Sadrists to pressure political blocs to pass the law, which was in line with their aspirations and was very compatible with their broad popular base.[/size]
[size=45]The popular base of the cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is wide, and his influence is concentrated in well-known areas of eastern and western Baghdad and many other areas in southern Iraq. Therefore, the new law served the Sadrist movement to a large extent and enabled its leader to win nearly a third of the parliament's seats.[/size]
[size=45]Renad Mansour, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for Middle East Studies, told Al-Monitor, “In the future, the independents will be in danger, and they are among the big traditional parties, so they will have difficulty forming strong blocs.”[/size]
[size=45]The new law has given independents a great opportunity to reach parliament without having to join party organizations and follow the convictions of the heads of blocs. Independents, and because of the new law, are considered the second largest winner after the Sadrist movement. On the other hand, no one can say that the work of the independent representatives will have influence within the parliament, which needs collective action or an alliance party. Their voices will not be heard among the voices of major parties such as the Sadrist Movement, the Progress Alliance, and other Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite parties. Therefore, they have no solution but to join or ally with the parties that share the same visions and ideas.[/size]
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