The Dongs Revaluation is Imminent

The Dongs Revaluation is Imminent

July 13, 2014


By JC Collins



The currency of Vietnam is called the dong and has been pegged to the US dollar for a very long time.  The dong has been devalued consistently over the last 4 decades to facilitate the exportation of dollar inflation.  Within the country the dollar is predominately used and loans by local financial institutions are predominately denominated in dollars.  But all of this is about to change.

The Vietnam Business Forum has been working on methods of stabilizing the Vietnamese dong and its Macroeconomic Policy Working Group (MAG) has just released its recommendations and they are dramatic to say the least.


As reported by Vietnamese Dong News, the following quotes are taken from the substance of the MAG report.

“Yuan, the currency of China, the second largest economy in the world, and Vietnam’s biggest trade partner, has never gotten a foothold on the foreign exchange market in Vietnam.”


The implication from the report is why would Vietnam continue to use and peg the dong to the US dollar, who it does only marginal trade with, when in reality China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner.

“Experts: heavy dependence on US dollar not good for Vietnam.”
Extremely self-explanatory.

“The report released by MAG last week pointed out that Vietnam’s dollar-pegged foreign exchange policy has had a negative impact on its trade balance.”


This is obvious and timely.  We covered the reasons for this in the post “Why the Vietnamese Dong will Reset”.


“In terms of Vietnam’s sovereign debts, its biggest creditors in 2012 included Japan (34.5 percent of Vietnam’s total foreign debts), the World Bank (28.8 percent), and ADB (15.5 percent). As such, Vietnam’s foreign debts have been valuated not only in the US dollar, but also in other hard foreign currencies, including JPY, SDR and EUR.”


Of course the SDR is the mechanism by which most sovereign debts will be restructured.  Debt will be consolidated and packaged as SDR bonds.

“MAG’s experts commented that it is unreasonable for Vietnam to follow a dollar-pegged foreign exchange policy, while its trade and foreign debts depend on other foreign currencies.”
With China being Vietnam’s largest trading partner we can assume which currency is being referred to here.

“Therefore, Vietnam has been recommended to apply a new foreign exchange policy which allows it to valuate the Vietnam dong in correlation with more than one foreign currency. This will be a reasonable choice which helps both stabilize the exchange rates and ensure the flexibility of the nation’s policies.”


The operative phrase in the quote is “a new foreign exchange policy”.  As stated, it is likely that the dong will be pegged to a basket of currencies.  Which baskets now exist outside of the Euro and the SDR?  None.  But with the announcement of the BRICS Currency Market Stabilization Fund this week and its $100 Billion injection from the BRICS countries, it is possible and probable that the BRICS currencies will form a stabilization basket from which other currencies, like the ones belonging to the Next Eleven countries, of which Vietnam is a member, can peg too and stabilize.

“Now is the right time for Vietnam to follow the new policy, as it now has all the necessary conditions to do this. Vietnam has wide economic openness, but it <does | should>not depend on any one trade partner.”


The right time is strongly implying imminence.  The BRICS Development Bank and the currency market stabilization fund are vital components of the policy being described by MAG.

“Therefore, if it were to apply the policy, Vietnam would be safe from the shocks in other foreign currency markets, if and when they occur.”


This statement is suggesting sudden and dramatic adjustments to the foreign currency markets, which is likely focused on the US dollar and the coming changes to its status as the world’s primary reserve currency.

At this point I would recommend readers to revisit the following posts:

Why the Vietnamese Dong will Reset


Vietnam Seeks Dong Stability as Dollar Nears Collapse


The American Dollar is Dumping Vietnam


A Global Currency Reset


The New Exchange Rate System


And the whole SDR’s and the New Bretton Woods series, especially Part Three, sub-titled The Real Global Currency Reset.

It is almost surreal that what we have been describing from the beginning is now taking place.  The world is on the verge of huge and dramatic changes.

The BRICS currency basket will eventually be integrated into the larger macro SDR basket, most likely at the end of the year when the 2010 Code of Reforms are finally passed and the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund is restructured.  This fits perfectly with what we have described as the local currencies of countries consolidate into regional currency groups which will then make up the SDR supra-sovereign basket.  See the post “The Arcane SDR Supra-Macro Asset”.


The US dollar continues to be isolated around the world and the critical stage of actualization for major adjustments to the currency markets has arrived.

And for those who continue to propose that the BRICS Development Bank will compete directly with the World Bank and IMF, you will be severely disappointed when these organizations begin to announce macro financial agreements.  I’ve already discussed how the World Bank has expressed its full support for the BRICS Development Bank in the post The Emerging Multilateral.

The World Bank is also openly supporting Vietnam’s policy group and mandates, as described here.  Be sure to read the full article as the World Bank describes how China’s oil rig being placed in Vietnam’s Economic Zone has had no negative effects.

Additionally, the World Bank’s President will be visiting Vietnam on July 16th and 17th to strengthen the partnership.  These are the same dates as the BRICS summit from which the official announcements of the New Development Bank and Currency Stabilization Fund will be made.

And as we’ve explained already, the World Bank has offered its full support for the BRICS Bank.  This is not a coincidence and is making it increasingly challenging for those who attempt to convince us that their are two opposing sides to the economic reset taking place.

Its obvious that the Vietnamese dong is about to be revalued but how that revaluation will look on the other side is not clearly determined.  Those who have dreams of getting rich from the dong reset may in fact see some sort of upside but it is just as likely that capital flow restrictions could very well hamper some of this.

Much is known, as can be attested from the above information, but there still remains large components of this financial reset which have been well hidden.  But let us not forget those around the world who have suffered tremendously under the past imbalances, none more so than the Vietnamese people themselves, who have shown strength and perseverance through decades of war and economic sanctions.  The fact that they have modernized faster than any other country in the world is a testament to the power of the human heart and mind.  – JC

http://philosophyofmetrics.com/2014/07/13/the-dongs-revaluation-is-imminent/#more-936

This JC Collins is heavy on the Dong, SDR, N11, Global Reset, as I try to keep up even tho the informational theory is very educational. Why I built to share this category for others to help in the brain storming outside of http://philosophyofmetrics.com/  site....  

Glad I didnt sell!  Lets see what happens....

US asked to recognise Vietnam’s market economy
Last update 11:13 | 25/07/2014
VietNamNet Bridge – Hanoi Party Committee Secretary Pham Quang Nghi has asked the US to further open its market for Vietnamese products, restrict trade barriers, encourage US investment in Vietnam, and recognise the country’s market economy status.

The Vietnamese delegation held a working session with NDI and IRI leaders
He also proposed that the US increase assistance to Vietnam in dealing with war aftermath, including dioxin remediation, support for dioxin victims, bomb and mine clearance, and search for personnel missing in action (MIA).
Nghi made proposals during his current visit to the US, starting July 21, where he met a number of politicians including Thomas Shannon, Counsellor to Secretary of State John Kerry; Tony Blinken, Deputy National Security Adviser for President Barack Obama; Patrick Leahy, President pro tempore of the US Senate and Senator John McCain.
He also met with Kenneth Wollack, President of the National Democratic Institute (NDI), and Mark Green, President of the International Republican Institute (IRI).
Nghi briefed his hosts on Vietnam’s open foreign policy and affirmed that Vietnam wants to further boost cooperation with the US within the framework of the comprehensive partnership established in July 2013.
He reiterated the two countries’ determination to break with the past and look to the future, and said both sides need to take specific measures to develop bilateral relations in an effective and substantial manner, primarily in economics, trade and investment.
He stressed the need to increase the exchange of delegation, especially in 2015 to mark 20 years of Vietnam-US normalisation.
Nghi also said Vietnam welcomes the US’s efforts to strengthen cooperation with Asia and the Pacific, for the sake of peace, stability, and prosperity in the region.
He appreciated congress people’s contributions to Vietnam-US relations in recent times, including dialogue mechanisms between the two countries’ legislatures and cooperation between their localities.

Pham Quang Nghi (L) and Patrick Leahy, President pro tempore of the US Senate

Pham Quang Nghi worked with Department of State officials
Leaders of the US Department of State said the US values Vietnam’s role in addressing regional and international issues, as well as issues in US-Vietnam relations.
They said the US attaches great importance to Asia-Pacific in its overall strategy, and vowed to accelerate negotiations of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement to end the process this year. They pledged to provide technical assistance for Vietnam to improve its capacity and flexibility in meeting TPP commitments.
US Senators spoke highly of Vietnam’s leading role in resolving regional issues and said the US Congress supports the government in promoting relations with Vietnam.
US officials expressed their concern over recent tensions in the East Sea after China placed its oil platform Haiyang Shiyou-981 in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone and continental shelf.
They said the US has its interest in maintaining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, including freedom, safety and security of navigation in the East Sea. They appreciated Vietnam’s recent efforts to prevent confrontations and disputes in the region.
Nghi is scheduled to leave Washington DC on July 23 (local time) for New York, continuing his working visit to the US.
Read more: http://dongtalk.com/forums/index.php/topic/14096-us-asked-to-recognise-vietnam’s-market-economy/#ixzz38VnEFukN

imagine dat from same site.. maybe ole WRONG shoe J.C should have done more home work! cant say lets leve da U.s dollar and say lets get more trade !

Now that's what I am talking about, Ty quack... :)