Evaluation of the Iraqi economy

Evaluation of the Iraqi economy

Economical  12/12/2023
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Yasser Al-Metwally 


There are indicators that enable the economic analyst to judge the economy of any country whether it is thriving, tired, or shrinking.
The real standard and basic indicator for assessing the state of the economy, whether it is shrinking or thriving, is the purchasing power in that country. Whenever the rate of consumption rises, it indicates economic recovery for the country, and vice versa, when the level of consumption decreases, it means that the country’s economy is shrinking (tired).
In light of this economic theory, how do we evaluate the state of the Iraqi economy?
Our assessment of the state of the Iraqi economy, regardless of the economic performance, is another matter. The reality of the distortions in the structure of the Iraqi economy puts the analyst at a loss in assessing the economic situation, and this assessment is the basis for helping the economic policy maker to make the sound and correct decisions to achieve balanced growth that sustains the recovery or treats it. Shrinkage.
But the structural distortion that afflicts our national economy puts everyone in a maze of miscalculation and planning. Therefore, the economic reform process in the country faces challenges of this kind that hinder its achievement, and I mean the economic reform that we seek.
What complicates the economic scene most and hinders successful solutions is the absence of accurate statistics and numbers, which I previously discussed in a previous article here in Al-Sabah Economics, which was titled The Deception of Economic Numbers.
It is noted that most of the announced statistics are estimated and unrealistic, giving a distorted picture. For example, the figures for unemployment rates, the poverty rate, the size of inflation, and the lives of the Iraqi population are also estimated due to the absence of a general population census for nearly four decades. This is the second indicator of assessing the state of the Iraqi economy. .
Perhaps the closest example of the blurring of the Iraqi economic landscape is when you look at consumption rates by all standards 
Whether in basic or luxury goods, and the level of accelerating development in the expansion of urban expansion, whether in housing projects, malls, and restaurants, in addition to that, surplus goods and commodities littering the streets and sidewalks and filling warehouses without planning indicate to you that there is a major economic recovery.  
On the other hand, when you read and hear about poverty rates and the estimated size of unemployment, it indicates to you that the economy is tired. The reason for this contradiction is certainly the absence of accurate and true statistics, which confuses the government in addressing the conditions of the fragile and poor classes in a way that achieves social well-being for all.
From all of this, we conclude that assessing the state of the Iraqi economy is illogical and is the reason for distorting its true picture.  
This indicator hinders the government in addressing poverty and unemployment and assessing actual needs, so the losses are many, which affects the possibility of correcting the structural distortion of the economy.
There are many examples. There are many who appropriate shares of vulnerable classes to benefit from support decisions without entitlement. If these losses were allocated to the deserving, it could eliminate poverty and reduce unemployment rates. The greatest evidence is that there are cases discovered from time to time in large numbers that are not eligible for social welfare salaries, for example, and do not apply to them. The controls for those included, and even the ration card, include many who do not deserve it, affecting the share of the poor, as many cases have been discovered and other categories are still not eligible. 
The conclusion is that only the general population census can solve the problem of real numbers and significantly reduce poverty rates while the margins of standard errors in statistics remain valid and in accordance with the accuracy of the information and statistics.

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