An analysis that raises speculation about al-Sadr's motives and the future of the political process

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[size=52]An analysis that raises speculation about al-Sadr's motives and the future of the political process in Iraq[/size]

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Al-Sadr's supporters stormed parliament twice in less than a week, and started a sit-in inside it
[size=45]An analysis by the Washington Institute of Peace concluded that Iraq's stability is at stake in the midst of the current political crisis, which calls for a serious stance from the country's leaders and the international community alike to confront the crisis.[/size]
[size=45]The  [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] , which was written by the director of Middle East programs at the Institute Sarhang Hama Saeed, found that Iraqis have different views on what Muqtada al-Sadr's goals and tactics are, noting that a large segment of the public views him as the agent of change required amid the failures of the political system in Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]Last June, the Sadrist movement's 73 deputies resigned from parliament, after they held, as a bloc, the largest number of seats in it.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sadr, who has a wide popular base, showed that he is still able to mobilize the masses for his political goals, after his supporters stormed Parliament twice in less than a week, and began a sit-in, rejecting the nomination of Muhammad Shia Al-Sudani by the Iranian-backed coordination framework, to take over the prime minister.[/size]

What does the chest want?

[size=45]The writer says that there is a lot of speculation about al-Sadr's motives, including whether he was frustrated by the prolonged political stalemate and was preparing to resign from politics? Or did he abandon the political system and plans to confront the political class from the outside?[/size]
[size=45]The writer also asks: “Was Al-Sadr’s life threatened by Iran because he aimed to exclude its allies from being part of the government?[/size]
[size=45]Sadr's opponents thought that they had succeeded in thwarting him to the point of withdrawing from the political process and soon replaced his deputies, most of whom were members of their own, according to the writer.[/size]
[size=45]He added that the coordinating framework and others believed that the path to forming a government had been paved, and that the leader of the State of Law coalition, Nuri al-Maliki, was looking forward to setting himself up for a third term in the prime ministership or choosing a prime minister from his close circle.[/size]
[size=45]The writer believes that Al-Sadr's withdrawal from Parliament has put the current Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi, his government, and Al-Sadr's political and parliamentary partners in a very difficult position.[/size]
[size=45]Many of his opponents also believed that al-Sadr had lost a large number of his constituents, frustrated by his inability to form a government.[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, the writer indicates that many will not support any attempt to overthrow the regime and ignite a civil war between the Shiites, and neither will the Iraqi Shiite religious establishment in Najaf nor the international community support such a step, and also Iran will oppose the exclusion of its allies from power and the occurrence of any Shiite-Shiite fighting.[/size]
[size=45]The writer continues that Sadr's opponents believe that Russia's war on Ukraine has changed many things, and that the United States and Europe need Iraq's oil.[/size]
[size=45]With the production capacity of the Gulf states at its maximum, Iraq could compensate and produce more, so Sadr's opponents believed that Washington and Europe would accept a government formed by the coordination framework in the hope that it would prioritize oil production over reform and other governance issues.[/size]
[size=45]It is clear that this turn of events has already shown that much of the thinking of Sadr's opponents did not work, according to the writer who noted that his call for Friday prayers in the scorching summer heat in Baghdad with tens of thousands of people responding showed that Sadr's support remains strong.[/size]
[size=45]It shows that the seizure of the parliament building and other facilities in the Green Zone in the past few days and the invitation of other political parties, clan leaders and the Iraqi people to join what he called a “spontaneous peaceful revolution” clearly indicate that al-Sadr is keen to achieve his declared political goals to change the political system and fight corruption.[/size]
[size=45]The writer asserts that his opponents now believe that he is truly headed toward the ultimate goal of placing political, economic, religious, and social power above everyone else.[/size]

The role of the United States

[size=45]Hama Saeed says that there are contradictory perceptions in Iraq about the role of the United States, including that the prevailing thinking is that no prime minister will be appointed or can succeed if the United States and Iran do not agree to him.[/size]
[size=45]At the same time, many political actors believe that the role and influence of the United States has diminished significantly in Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, the writer points out that despite the tense relations between Al-Sadr and the United States in the past, some believe that Washington preferred Al-Sadr's formation of a government in order to strengthen Iraq in the face of Iran and its allies.[/size]
[size=45]The author adds that the United States has an interest in a democratic, stable, and sovereign Iraq, and thus can work with its allies across the Iraqi political spectrum along with its European allies and the United Nations to encourage and support dialogue among the various actors to prevent violence, break political deadlock, and enable effective governance.[/size]

Where is Iraq heading?

[size=45]The writer says that despite the many changes in Iraq, the main problem remains, which is an imbalance of power, unwillingness to accept the other, and limited efforts to implement what has already been agreed upon.[/size]
[size=45]He continues that the political class is separated from the suffering of the public and behaves indifferently, while Iran, Turkey and other countries enjoy the influence of a strong competitor in Iraq, and the current crisis gives a greater opportunity to expand this influence, adding that internal problems provide space for others to exercise their influence.[/size]
[size=45]Iraq's problems can be solved or mitigated if Iraqis work better with each other, according to the author, who believes that Iraq remains important to the stability of the region and the national security interests of regional and global powers.[/size]
[size=45]He continues that the country possesses many elements needed for positive change, but still lacks a catalyst to harness these elements.[/size]
[size=45]He adds that there are efforts to break the current political crisis, but the deep political impasse in Iraq will not be moved any time soon.[/size]
[size=45]The writer concludes by saying, “Real change can happen if the political process becomes more expressive of the will of Iraqis, more than 60 percent of whom did not vote in the 2021 elections and did not agree with the political class.”[/size]
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