Changes in Iraq prompt France to rethink its strategy

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[size=52]Changes in Iraq prompt France to rethink its strategy[/size]

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The French Institute of International Relations called for a rethinking of the positioning of France's foreign policy based on the political, security and economic changes that took place in Iraq and the region in general, in line with the interests of Paris and its partners, in an attempt to draw the scene of France's strategic position in the Middle East.[/size]
[size=45]After the Institut Français pointed out in a report translated by Shafaq News Agency, that "French strategic thinking in the Middle East is at a dead end", indicating that the terrorist threat in the region has almost ended, which should prompt Paris to rethink its strategy.[/size]
[size=45]This came within the framework of an interview with a researcher at the French Institute, Heloise Fayette, who specializes in military affairs in the Middle East, who said, in response to a question about what France is doing in the Middle East, on the occasion of the “Baghdad-2” conference, while all eyes are directed towards Ukraine, that “the presence of France In the Middle East today, it revolves around two goals: fighting terrorism and protecting its access to energy and the sea, from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and all the way to the Persian Gulf, the gateway to the Indian Ocean.[/size]
[size=45]Heloise said, "In order to achieve these goals, France maintains about 2,000 military personnel in the Middle East, which makes it the second largest area of ​​deployment after Africa, noting that the French military presence is concentrated in three axes, the first is the "North Operation", which since the year 2014, within its framework, it gathered 600 military personnel distributed between Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon, in addition to 650 soldiers within the UNIFIL forces in Lebanon, and the military force stationed in Abu Dhabi, which France uses as a logistical platform.[/size]
[size=45]He added that these French forces represent "the essence of the French position in the region."[/size]
[size=45]In addition to the military presence, the French expert pointed out that "Paris has embassies in all countries of the Middle East, except for Syria and Yemen, where its diplomatic missions were closed in 2012 and 2015." Regarding the diminishing terrorist threat in the Iraqi-Syrian region and whether the military resources deployed by France are sufficient, the French expert said, "The terrorist threat has already been eliminated," adding that although in 2021 ISIS claimed responsibility for more than 1,100 attacks in Iraq. However, this number is decreasing year after year, and ISIS is almost unable to coordinate large-scale attacks.[/size]
[size=45]However, the organization, according to Heloise, still "constitutes a social and political threat in Iraq and Syria, but this is not one of the problems that Operation Shamal, nor the French Special Forces, can solve."[/size]
[size=45]Heloise said, "Iraqi, Kurdish and Lebanese officials recognize their need for very specific training, access to equipment for specific tasks and political assistance to protect their state or local administrations, more than money or human resources."[/size]
[size=45]And she added, "At the present time, there is a kind of stalemate in French strategic thinking in the Middle East since the height of the terrorist threat in 2015."[/size]
[size=45]In response to a question about Iraq and Syria, Heloise warned that some of France's partners do not hesitate to manipulate the threat posed by ISIS, explaining that they will talk about an increase in the danger of the organization when they need foreign help, or they will say that its danger decreases when the population begins to challenge their presence.[/size]
[size=45]And she considered that "the money that is pumped into the security forces and the weapons provided, raises the danger of strengthening what the war against terrorism was supposed to oppose, including the fragmentation of social cohesion."[/size]
[size=45]Heloise agreed with the idea that the "Inherent Resolve" operation led by the United States since 2014, and the associated French "North" operation, had changed its approach since 2020, recalling that after the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, who was engineering the movement of multiple militias in Iraq And Syria, a vote was taken in the Iraqi parliament on a proposal calling for the withdrawal of foreign forces, adding that a series of attacks on western bases in January and March 2020, in addition to the Corona epidemic, caused this withdrawal to accelerate.[/size]
[size=45]And she explained that “the international coalition, to which France belongs, changed its organization in the spring of 2021 and began the last stage known as the “fourth stage”, that is, “stability”, as officially there are no longer Western soldiers in Iraq, and the existing force of the coalition now is for training missions. And support and advice in addition to other missions in addition to the NATO mission.[/size]
[size=45]According to Heloise, the exit of US forces from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 has had a limited impact so far, adding that US forces have returned to the level that existed in 2015, with the presence of 36,000 soldiers after the peak recorded in 2017, which was more than 46,000. military, explaining that this constitutes a change in scale, and that while the numbers have declined in Iraq, they have increased in Saudi Arabia.[/size]
[size=45]On the possibility of France being exposed to terrorism, Heloise said that the terrorist threat existed before the French “Operation North” and will always exist, and that Paris will still need specific operations for the Special Forces, as French foreign fighters within ISIS and others are still present in camps and prisons in Syria and Iraq. .[/size]
[size=45]She added that this danger is part of a threat that must be dealt with through a comprehensive and global approach to counterinsurgency.[/size]
[size=45]On the relationship with the UAE, the French expert said that after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the UAE was among the countries that abstained from voting on sanctions against Russia at the United Nations, and it also chose the Chinese telecommunications company “Huawei” to develop many of its infrastructure, and China also got It obtained a concession in Abu Dhabi port in 2018 for a container terminal, which caused severe tensions with Washington and the cancellation of a contract to supply F-35 fighter jets.[/size]
[size=45]In addition, Heloise pointed out that the UAE chose to develop relations with Syria by receiving its president, Bashar Al-Assad, last March, as Abu Dhabi is investing heavily in reconstruction in Syria, which contradicts the Western position.[/size]
[size=45]On the possibility that the escalation of Turkish military operations in Syria against the Kurds will affect France's relations, Helios said, "Turkey's policy in the Middle East has not been fully compatible with French interests for a long time, with the exception of combating terrorism, as Ankara imprisons French jihadists returning from Syria." ".[/size]
[size=45]However, she added that France needs to ask itself some questions in view of the recent intensification of Turkish military operations, noting that Ankara is a member of NATO and is an official ally, but that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is directly targeting the Kurdish forces that are protected and trained by France, and not Someone seems to be able to block him.[/size]
[size=45]The French researcher at the French Institute of International Relations concluded that, as is the case with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which no longer interests anyone, Syria has also become a frozen conflict, noting that it has been a conflict that has been going on for more than 10 years, and it appears as a laboratory for regional tensions and even international.[/size]
[size=45]She added that the war in Ukraine may have repercussions on the balance of power in Syria in the event that Moscow is forced to withdraw its forces there in order to transfer them to Ukraine.[/size]
[size=45]Heloise concluded by saying that there are growing dangers of a possible security vacuum, warning that as French and European influence diminishes over regional issues such as Iran's nuclear program, it will be "necessary to rethink our strategy and act accordingly."[/size]
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