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[size=38]Al-Sudani between his desire to interact with the Arab world and his supporters' rejection of Iraq's Arab tendencies[/size]
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January 1, 2023[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Baghdad / Obelisk: d. Ihsan Al-Shammari
The year 2022 AD is considered the most difficult in the political process and on all political, security and economic levels. Iraq faced a state of instability for several considerations, including: the fact that the government is to run daily affairs, which paralyzed state institutions, as well as the nature of political conflicts that were reflected in a negative way. directly on public life and showed security confusion at the level of the rise of the armed option to impose political will
Or with regard to the resumption of terrorist groups' activity in a number of cities, which led to a number of casualties, and the impact of this on the lack of noticeable progress in the economic field; Despite other areas, this year can be described as a political year par excellence, based on the files that we will address in this study.
Elections conflict and Parliament session:
The crisis of forming the current Iraqi government is one of the longest crises in the country that plunged it into conflicts that caused division in the Iraqi street, as no political crisis has occurred in Iraq since the establishment of the new regime in Iraq after 2003 AD, such as the one that occurred after the early elections that took place on the tenth of October. The first) 2021 AD, and the roots of the political crisis in Iraq go back to the announcement of the results of early elections in October 2021 AD, when the Sadrist movement, led by the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, won the largest number of seats, and it is customary in Iraq for power-sharing to take place on the principle of quota. , and that the Shiite forces collectively form the largest bloc in parliament that has to choose a prime minister, but al-Sadr tried to end that tradition.
The result of the elections came in a way that increased the seats of the “Sadr bloc”, which is the largest in the parliament consisting of 329 seats, to reach 73 seats, after it had 54 deputies in the previous parliament, while the “Fateh Alliance”, its main rival for years, which includes the factions, collapsed. Associated with armed militias loyal to Iran, as it won 14 seats instead of 48, which it had won in the 2018 elections, after participating in the fight against the “ISIS” organization in Iraq, and the Sunni bloc came in second place, which may give the Sunni political minority greater It has acquired a degree of influence since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, and Iran's formation of the Iraqi political system based on strengthening the Shiite community after the fall of Saddam Hussein and the demise of the Baath Party regime.
After the results of the parliamentary elections were announced, many supporters of the pro-Iranian militias that lost their seats in Parliament took to the streets, claiming that the elections were rigged against them. However, the chaos that accompanied the streets of Iraq after the results was not limited only to angry demonstrations, who organized sit-ins near the area Green in Baghdad for weeks, on the grounds of rigging the elections, and even a drone attack on the residence of the Iraqi Prime Minister raised the specter of continued violence by Iraqi groups and militias, and despite the Prime Minister's assertion that he was not harmed in the attack, it was considered by some officials Iraqis, including former Iraqi President Barham Salih, staged a coup against the Iraqi political system.
The political tension between the blocs was reflected in the first session of the new parliament, which was held on January 9, 2022 AD, which was attended by 228 members out of 329, as it witnessed a series of violent altercations between members of those blocs competing in the elections, with news of an assault on the session president. The older caretaker, Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, took him to the hospital. Naturally, the largest bloc that would form the government according to the Iraqi constitution was not determined, which paved the way for more political tension later on.
Al-Sadr's opposition and the Shiite-Shia clash
The withdrawal and resignation of the Sadrist bloc’s deputies from parliament on June 12, 2022, was a great shock to the political forces and the Shiite street, especially since he was the first winner of the elections, at a time when the Iraqi street was counting on him to make changes within the structure of the lame political process, as Sadr’s decision confused the Iraqi political scene. And the consequent results and options may lead to greater control of Iran’s allies over the entire political process, and al-Sadr’s decision may be based on prior readings of the age of the government that will be formed later, which will be unable to carry out reforms in light of the struggle of political forces accompanied by the absence of national forces with the dominance of armed factions.
Al-Sadr adopted a discourse under the title “Political Reform” represented in combating corruption, prosecuting the corrupt, and not accepting the participation of politicians and parties that were part of the political process after 2003 AD, in any new government, which negates any possibility of Al-Sadr responding to the national dialogue called for by Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi. Or accept the existence of a government led by the coordinating framework.
Al-Sadr sought to form a national majority government that could start implementing reforms, including limiting control over militias, fighting corruption, curbing external influence by countries such as Iran, and neutralizing Iraq in the face of regional differences, and that it will face many challenges, as it Even if he is able to form a majority government, achieving more change will require an uphill battle because reform is a very difficult task that requires a huge effort, and some aspects of this reform may require decades to become a tangible reality.
A set of these obstacles that Al-Sadr will face, including the government's ability to continue, as the recovery plan requires the approval of most political players while political consensus is rare in Iraq, so forming and maintaining a majority with other political parties is a matter of doubt.
Al-Sadr set conditions for joining the national dialogue that reflect a clear desire not to respond to any calls for dialogue that do not set a path to allow the Iraqis to get out of the current political crisis. Al-Sadr stipulated that the dialogue be public to exclude all participants in the political process and previous electoral cycles, which leads to the question The feasibility of the dialogue that al-Sadr calls for and who are the parties or personalities that participate in it.
On August 29 and 30, 2022, Iraq was on the verge of entering an internal war after hundreds of militants from the Sadrist movement stormed the Green Zone to take control of the presidential and government palaces, with decisions taken by leaders in the movement that may be with the knowledge, knowledge, and guidance of its president, and Al-Sadr faced a moral retreat from his religious authority. Kazem al-Hairi, who announced, in an unknown precedent in the Shiite heritage, the closure of his offices and his abandonment of his position as a religious reference to his imitators, including Muqtada al-Sadr, and his call to imitate the supreme Iranian reference, Ali Khamenei, and his criticism that detracts from Muqtada al-Sadr's scholarly status and his eligibility to represent the authority of his father, Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr.
While the strength of the Sadrist movement in Iraq declined after a series of decisions described as “wrong,” the leadership position of Muqtada al-Sadr within the social and religious environment of his followers has not changed due to the historical legacy. It does not seem that al-Sadr’s standing among his followers was negatively affected by his recent decisions, whether his parliamentary bloc failed to form a national majority government or the withdrawal of its deputies from the House of Representatives, or what was related to his decision to permanently retire from political work on August 29, and the repercussions of storming the Green Zone in central Baghdad forcefully. Weapons and attempts to seize the sovereign institutions of the state, and in general, the Sadrist movement will continue to form an essential part of the system of political action in Iraq, whether inside or outside the political process.
The established fact in this incident is the possibility of the Iraqi political forces to confuse the security situation and move the country into a civil war between the parties that wrestled there at any time these armed forces choose at the expense of the Iraqi state, in addition to the existence of attempts to extend the powers of authority over the security institutions and this What happened in conjunction with the formation of the government to the acquisition by a number of armed parties and factions of sensitive security positions, and this reflects the extent of the interference of these political parties in the Iraqi security file and their attempt to control it as part of showing their military power at the expense of the democratic mechanism.
Reformulating alliances and forming the Sudanese government:
The withdrawal of Muqtada and his parliamentary bloc directly affected his allies in the National Salvation Alliance, which was founded by the Sadrist movement, the Sovereignty Alliance led by Muhammad al-Halbousi, Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, in addition to the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Masoud Barzani, as the allies (sovereignty-democracy) after the collapse of the National Salvation Alliance turned into The circle of political weakness as victorious forces adopted a position different from the Shiite coordination framework, which forced them to accept, as a result of the need for component representation, to engage in dialogues with the forces of the coordination framework radically different from their previous agreements, and these dialogues led to the signing of the political agreement paper for what is known as the State Administration Alliance and the nomination of candidates for the post of President and Prime Minister.
On October 17, 2022 AD, a solution finally took place in the process of forming the Iraqi government, with the new President Abd al-Latif Rashid assuming his position more than a year after the October 2021 elections, and then the approval of the government of Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani in the parliament session. Which was held on October 27, and thus finally closed the most problematic electoral cycle in the history of the Iraqi political process after 2003 AD, a season in which a clear popular vote almost failed to achieve a peaceful transfer of power, and in which the losing factions pushed the biggest winner to abandon the council Representatives through judicial rulings.
The scene of voting for the government of Muhammad Shia al-Sudani in the Iraqi parliament, on the evening of last October 27, and then assuming his duties as Prime Minister of Iraq the next day, in the official headquarters of the government, was as if it was the end, in terms of formality, of three years of political and popular unrest, which began From the overthrow of the government of the former Prime Minister, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, in the wave of the October protests, and the advent of the interim government of Al-Kazemi, which experienced continuous unrest and conflicts between the main political forces, and the militia’s violation of the state’s powers, and its continued targeting of citizens opposing its illegitimate authority.
Thus, the parliamentary approval session for al-Sudani’s candidacy also ended an intractable crisis that seemed unresolved, which lasted about a year since the end of the early October elections, last year, in which the Sadrist movement won and the fierce opposition to the coordination framework prevented it from forming a majority government under its leadership, and a series of rapid developments emerged during the two weeks. The past two years, starting with the sudden and rapid withdrawal of the Sadrists from confrontation and the ability of the framework, because of this withdrawal, to sign the election of the President of the Republic and then the latter assigned the Sudanese to form the government, up to the ability of the Sudanese, with framework support despite the sharp internal differences, to complete this formation in a record time unprecedented in all governments After 2003 AD, within a period of 14 days only.
The Sudanese cabinet won confidence with 250 votes out of the 257 members who attended the session, which is a very large number that reflects the parliament’s confidence in it. The Sudanese government, and the ministerial formation was as follows:
The coordination framework included 12 ministries, which are each of the Interior, Oil, Finance, Electricity, Health, Higher Education, Agriculture, Transport and Communications, Labor and Social Affairs, Sports and Youth, Water Resources, Communications, while the share of the Sunni component was six ministries, which are all
From: Defense, Planning, Education, Industry, Trade, and Culture, and the share of the Kurdish component is 4 ministries, which are each of Foreign Affairs, Justice, Housing and Construction, and Environment, while three non-sovereign ministries from the government formation will be the share of independents, Christians, and Turkmen.
Iranian influence:
Iran's success in utilizing the facts of the scene of worsening internal deterioration and the weakening of external influence in its favor will establish those facts that will push Iran to restore its influence in a greater way influencing the Iraqi decision, as Iran worked on several parallel axes to influence and try to control the Iraqi scene by dealing directly with the Iraqi leaders that It dealt with Iran at the time of the opposition, and there are parties that confronted the political scene with Iranian financial and logistical support, which ensured that Iran, after the victory of these parties in the recent elections, was keen on behalf of Tehran to preserve Iranian interests, not only inside Iraq, but even outside it.
The Iranian influence in the year 2022 AD was at its highest level, whether at the level of forming political alliances according to sectarian and nationalist houses, or in pushing al-Sadr to resign and trying to curtail and threaten the future of his political current, or in forming the Iraqi government through its allies, so it was natural for Iran to welcome the announcement of the formation of the Sudanese government Considering that the coordination framework has close links with Iran, therefore, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi congratulated, on October 28, 2022 AD, the new Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Shia Al-Sudani, on the occasion of granting confidence to his government.
The visit of the Iraqi Prime Minister to Tehran on 11-29-2022 AD is an indication of the level of Iranian attempts to sustain influence on Iraq. The invitation to visit Al-Sudani, although it came in a protocol format, reflected the levels of Iranian necessity for the continuation of Iraq as an economic lung and a vital field for it, despite the Iraqi Prime Minister’s attempt to stabilize the policy of balance. However, this may not be acceptable to Iran while it is waiting for the costs of its intervention in favor of its allies in Iraq.
The current political reality confirms the Iranian influence in Iraq is very large, and the Iraqi government cannot ignore it, which means that the government will face difficulty in dealing with this file, and that the Iranian government cannot give up its interests in Iraq under any circumstances, but rather it may work to export its crisis The current internal popular uprising against it to Iraq.
Turkish abuses:
Turkey posed a great concern to the Iraqi decision-maker in the year 2022 AD, especially as it worked to formulate a path that justifies its expansion at the level of the Iraqi geography, as it finds that many historical, geographical, political and social factors, conditions, and motives help and contribute to that, and perhaps with the passage of time, they are numerous and varied. The methods and means of Turkish intervention and presence in Iraq, which represents a growing concern for Ankara's friends and allies, not to mention its opponents, rivals and enemies, especially with regard to the nature and size of its large military and security presence in northern Iraq, which is under the authority of the Kurdish parties.
On July 27, 2022 AD, Iraq filed a complaint against Turkey before the UN Security Council, and the Iraqi armed factions fired missiles at the Turkish consulate in Mosul. The two steps came in response to the Turkish artillery shelling on July 20, which killed 9 Iraqis and wounded 33 others in the village resort. Burkh in Dohuk Governorate. At that time, the country witnessed a wave of angry protests denouncing the Turkish bombing and its continuation without deterrence. Protesters and owners of travel and tourism companies besieged the Turkish consulate in Baghdad and lowered the Turkish flag, in protest against the flagrant violations.
These protests included various Iraqi cities and provinces, the most prominent of which was in front of visa-granting centers, such as Kirkuk in the north, Najaf and Karbala, where the demonstrators burned Turkish flags and raised pictures of the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with the words “terrorist”.
This Turkish escalation represented by these two steps is the latest development in the decades-old conflict without attracting much attention, but it is currently escalating quantitatively and qualitatively. The Iranian-backed militias may be the biggest beneficiaries of these clashes, as Turkey considers it a new pretext for the groups to launch attacks outside the framework of the Iraqi state, and if the current course continues, it threatens to endanger many American and Iraqi interests.
The Turkish transgression is a flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty, which indicates the urgent need for the absence of the Iraqi military response force and the importance of having a high-level military force with capabilities available at all levels, whether air, air defense and intelligence, in addition to the need for there to be cooperation between the Kurdistan region and the federal government in order to In order to deploy sectors on the border strip separating Iraq and Turkey.
Despite the attempts made by the government of Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, through bilateral communication, to stop the Turkish violations and curb these interventions, the matter depends on the availability of real political will, because the victims are many as a result of the Turkish bombing, which seemed incoherent or supportive of any step taken by the Iraqi state. Even with Al-Kazemi's government hinting at a greater involvement of the Security Council to prevent Turkish expansion on Iraqi lands, it did not find a way to preserve Iraq's sovereignty, and this may push Turkey to further gnaw at Iraqi land in the coming years, in light of Iraq not using the most important pressure card it possesses towards Turkey, which is the economic card. Through which the Turkish side can be forced to stop or coordinate with Iraq, especially since the volume of Turkish economic exchange with Iraq has reached nearly $12 billion.
Washington and the turn towards Baghdad:
In the year 2022 AD, unlike previous crises, the US administration did not make great efforts to resolve the Iraqi crisis. During the nearly nine months between the elections and the withdrawal of the Sadrist representatives, public records show that senior US officials in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the “National Security Council” only visited Iraq. Twice, and that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made only a few calls with decision-makers in Iraq in an attempt to influence developments on the ground, and the distinguished new American ambassador to Iraq, Alina Romanowski, may have also pressed for a solution to this issue after her arrival in Baghdad in June 2022 AD, but from what appears from the matter, it did so without sufficient support from Washington; The absence of a high-level US administration's involvement in Iraq's attempts to form a government after the elections was not just an inadvertent omission, but rather a premeditated decision, and it seems that the US administration's plan was to leave
It is customary for Washington not to give its opinion on the results of elections in other countries, and prefers instead to focus on supporting institutions, but Iraq is not an ordinary country for the United States of America, given that the emerging democratic rule in it faces many difficulties in light of the pressures exerted by the arm. The long Iranian influence in Iraq under the umbrella of the armed factions, which has a strength of about 120,000 members, and the elections that Iraq witnessed may have contributed in the end to weakening Iran’s suffocating grip on the country, but the American disengagement during the process of forming the government left a vacuum that was not delayed. Tehran busy.
After the formation of Al-Sudani’s government, the dispute over the strategic agreement signed in 2008 was renewed, and the dispute became clear between the two sides when Al-Sudani announced in his first press conference as head of government on November 1, “that he has an authorization and authorization from the political forces to conduct a professional and technical dialogue with the international coalition forces that lead it.” The United States is in his country “to determine the need for the presence of the international coalition in numbers related to advisors and as tasks for training, advice and information exchange, and in light of that, what will result from a government decision that all political parties will abide by, and we will proceed to complete this dialogue as planned.” Hours later, the US ambassador to Iraq replied Alina Romanowsky affirmed that her country will not withdraw from Iraq and has a long-term commitment with this country and priorities, including the implementation of the strategic agreement signed between them in 2008. The ambassador added, “The American administration will provide the necessary support to the federal government headed by Al-Sudani in the field of combating financial and administrative corruption.”And to carry out reform in the economic sector in Iraq,” and stressed that her country has a long-term commitment and will not move away from the region, stressing the desire of the United States to continue cooperation with Iraq.
During the months of November and December of the year 2022 AD, Washington focused on a new approach to dealing with Iraq and began a deliberate turn as a result of the American need to restore its relationship in the region to ensure energy supplies as well as put more pressure on Iran in the Iraqi arena, which made it more immersed during these two months of The end of the year 2022 AD, and thus will put the Iraqi Prime Minister in testing stations for his positions towards American policy in Iraq or in the region, or to test his ability to gradually move away from Iran.
Iraqi / Arab relations:
Iraq's relations with the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council continued to improve in the year 2022 AD, in light of the former Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi's approach to that, and those relations crystallized for joint cooperation in the face of terrorism, and the development of political, economic, commercial, security, investment and cultural relations, and an attempt to establish an Arab balance in Iraq through Creating an environment for Iraqi-Gulf cooperation on the basis that Iraq needs to continue its relations with the GCC countries in order to restore its Arab role, with American and European support for the Iraqi-Gulf rapprochement steps, and for Iraq to be within the axis of Arab moderation, with the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Egypt and Jordan.
With the new government assuming its duties in the last quarter of the year 2022 AD, it seems that relations with Arab countries have not been greatly affected in light of the government's philosophy, which announced that it would adopt the principle of balance in Iraq's foreign relations. Regardless of the color of the coordination framework prevailing over the new government, most countries The Arab neighborhood wants to establish strong relations with Iraq, in order to preserve the common Arab interests. The Arab Gulf states also realize that whenever they move away from Iraqi affairs, they will give their opponents, Iran and Turkey, an opportunity to influence and compete at the expense of their interests and status in the region.
With a quick review, we find that the Saudi/Iraqi relations reached their peak during Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s government, whether at the level of meetings, protocol activities, and more understandings, which were translated into agreements and clear and practical joint cooperation, and through the statements announced by the new Prime Minister, Muhammad Shia’ Al-Sudani, it seems that He does not want to enter into problems with the neighboring Arab countries, especially since there are many pending files with them. Likewise, the Sudanese visit in the first month of his government’s life to Jordan, the State of Kuwait and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to attend the Arab-Chinese summit indicates the desire to interact with the Arab environment, but the Sudanese crisis remains. internally in its supporters who reject any Iraqi orientation or interaction with Arab countries.
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