Temporary solutions to complex files... Iraqi-Turkish relations hostage to the "Kurdistan Workers"?

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[size=52]Temporary solutions to complex files... Iraqi-Turkish relations hostage to the "Kurdistan Workers"?[/size]

[size=45]Sarkis Kasrjian
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Erdogan and Al-Sudani at the press conference after their talks. (AFP)[/size]
[size=45]At the invitation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, last Tuesday, the Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, made an official visit to Turkey for two days, his first since taking office last October, carrying a bag bulging with outstanding files, which followers of relations exclude. The Iraqi-Turkish conflict in both countries will find solutions in the short term, due to its complex nature, whether in terms of the internal dynamics in the two countries, or its external ramifications and intersections with more sensitive regional files.[/size]
[size=45]In the press conference that followed the bilateral meeting, Erdogan and Al-Sudani praised the cooperation between the two countries, pledging to deepen cooperation in a range of common files and fields, with the announcement of the start of implementing a major transport project for railways and highways, but without announcing serious solutions or even noticeable progress. In cases of bilateral disputes.[/size]
[size=45]A temporary solution to the water crisis
in essence, that is, an approach to Iraqi-Turkish relations that focuses on three main files: water, border security, and the economy.[/size]
[size=45]The water crisis tops the outstanding issues between the two countries, and despite its decades-long history, today it has become an existential threat to Iraq, which is suffering from a very large decline in the levels of its rivers, which led to the inclusion of “Mesopotamia” in the list of countries facing the threat of drought.[/size]
[size=45]The talks between the two sides resulted in a temporary solution represented by President Erdogan’s decision to increase the flow through the Tigris River for a period of one month “according to the available capabilities, in an attempt to alleviate the (water) problem in Iraq, which we know is facing severe shortages,” which means that the issue of water confinement remains. Through the dams built by Turkey along the Tigris River, it is currently outside the scope of solutions.[/size]
[size=45]In an interview with “An-Nahar Al-Arabi”, the Iraqi analyst who follows the file of Iraqi-Turkish relations, Muhammad Naanaa, reveals part of the details of the recent meeting, saying that “Ankara asked Baghdad for greater facilities in the land channels in order to deliver Turkish products to Iraq, in addition to facilities as well.” In the field of energy in exchange for an Iraqi request to reach long-term strategic solutions to the water crisis. The Turkish request came to try the Iraqi position by restricting water releases to one month, citing the possibility of wasting it by Iraq, which does not use technological and modern methods in irrigation issues.
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Nanaa adds, “The Iraqi side felt embarrassed by this criticism, because Iraq still relies on the classic and old methods of irrigation, which constitutes a weak point for Baghdad in this file.”[/size]
[size=45]A United Nations report issued in 2015 considered that Ankara's control of water flows from Turkey had caused "serious consequences" for Iraq, such as high levels of salinity downstream, which led to damage to crop yields and damage to the ecosystem.[/size]
[size=45]In 1987, when building the giant Ataturk Dam, which it completed in 1990, Turkey agreed to release no less than 500 cubic meters of water per second to Syria, but it retracted this pledge under the pretext of climate change, which led to a sharp decline. In the share of Syria, and therefore Iraq, from the Euphrates River.[/size]
[size=45]The establishment of dams by Turkey and Iran on the Tigris River and its tributaries also threatened the water and agricultural security of Iraq, amid risks of causing displacement that could further destabilize it, as Iraqi Environment Minister Jassem Al-Falahi revealed last week that “rivers that represent more than 90 percent of Fresh water in Iraq currently receives less than 30 percent of its natural flow from Turkey and Iran, while Iraqi environmental experts confirm that salinity levels in the Iraqi marshes only, which were previously about 200 parts per million, today exceed 1900 parts per million. million.[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, the Turkish president, during his talk about the outstanding water file between the two countries, contented himself with saying: "We can only overcome the transboundary water problems through rational and scientific methods."[/size]
[size=45]Border security and sovereignty
The Turkish military activity within the Iraqi borders is also a source of tension between Ankara and Baghdad, which considers the presence of Turkish forces on Iraqi soil, without coordination with the central government, a violation of its sovereignty and a threat to its territorial integrity. On the other hand, Ankara insists on its right to pursue the militants of the “PKK”, which it includes in the list of terrorist organizations, as the United States and many European countries do.[/size]
[size=45]During his speech at the joint press conference, the Turkish president reiterated his country's firm position on the military presence in Iraq. After referring to the fact that “Turkey is the greatest defender of Iraqi political unity and territorial integrity,” Erdogan affirmed his country’s readiness to cooperate with Baghdad in combating terrorism, calling on “the Iraqi brothers to recognize that the PKK is a terrorist organization and to expel these terrorists from its land.”[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, Al-Sudani affirmed “Iraq’s sovereignty and security” and that Iraq does not wish “security issues to negatively affect our relations,” proposing “exchanging intelligence information as a means to overcome security problems within the framework of a solution that protects Iraq’s security and sovereignty without resorting to violence.” A clear indication of the failure of the two parties to reach a settlement of the dispute in the security file as well.[/size]
[size=45]In response to the possibility of Baghdad implementing the Turkish demand, Nana believes that “the Iraqi government is currently, more than at any other time, unable to give a pledge to cooperate with Ankara in the PKK file, because the latter has forged many relations with Iraqi parties in the Kurdistan region and even in Baghdad.” And factions and militias, and he serves with them in a very large way,” describing any such Iraqi pledge as “unrealistic, and the Turkish government knows that, but it can go along with it and consume it inside Turkey.”[/size]
[size=45]Nanaa points out that “the PKK file is not confined to the security dimension only, but also has a commercial dimension with the party that manages trade on the Iraqi-Turkish and Iraqi-Syrian borders, and the Iraqi parties and influential Iraqi armed groups have forged commercial partnerships with it as well.”[/size]
[size=45]Associate Professor at Kurdistan Hewler University in Erbil, Arzu Yilmaz, considers that “the Turkish request is also related to the pressures that Iran has recently exerted on Erbil, especially after the recent agreement on the security of the Iraqi-Iranian borders, which was the inspiration for President Erdogan to propose the PKK after Sudanese invitation to Ankara.
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On March 19, Iraq and Iran signed a border security agreement, which was described as aiming to tighten the noose on the borders with the Kurdistan region of Iraq, where Kurdish organizations opposing Tehran are militarily active. Under the agreement, Iraq pledged not to allow armed groups to cross the border using the territory of the Iraqi Kurdistan region to attack neighboring Iran.[/size]
[size=45]Tehran accuses Kurdish groups in Iraqi Kurdistan of inciting the protests that erupted in the country, following the killing of Iranian Kurdish Mahsa Amini, and accuses them of cooperating with its sworn enemy, Israel, expressing concern about “the activity of the Israeli intelligence agency – the Mossad – in the region.”[/size]
[size=45]Yilmaz believes in statements to “An-Nahar Al-Arabi” that “the Turkish request came after Iran turned into a key factor in the Iraqi border system, and in accordance with the tradition of Iranian steps regarding Iraq.”[/size]
[size=45]Last year, the Iraqi government condemned Ankara for the Turkish artillery targeting of a tourist complex in Dohuk, which killed nine civilians, and referred the issue to the UN Security Council. The Turkish military points and military base in the “Bashiqa” camp, near the city of Mosul, are still one of the most The issues are contentious between the two countries, as Baghdad has repeatedly called on its northern neighbor to withdraw its forces from northern Iraq, especially the Bashiqa base, which has also been repeatedly targeted by pro-Iranian groups.[/size]
[size=45]“As far as I know, al-Sudani could not give a clear response to Turkey’s request that the Iraqi government designate the PKK as a terrorist organization,” said Dr. Serhad Erkman, a faculty member at Altınbaş University in Istanbul. Al-Sudani is not a powerful prime minister, and every decision he makes passes through powerful members of his broad coalition government. Therefore, he cannot make an important (such) decision on his own.”
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Arkman, who follows Turkish-Iraqi policies, explains in an interview with Al-Nahar Al-Arabi that “considering the PKK as a terrorist organization is important for Turkey in two ways: mitigating Baghdad’s violent criticism of Turkey’s military operations in Iraq, the most important reason being Sinjar. It was agreed to end the presence of the PKK there during the reign of the former Prime Minister (Mustafa Al-Kadhimi), but it was not implemented. Turkey attaches great importance to this issue. If Iraq describes the PKK as a terrorist organization, it will be possible, and even obligatory, to implement the plan that was put forward in order to eliminate the extension of the organization in Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]Economy and Energy
In addition to deepening their cooperation in combating terrorism, the two leaders expressed their desire to raise levels of trade and investment between the two countries. The Turkish president said that the leaders directed their governments to work on a railway and highway project linking the oil-rich Basra province in southern Iraq with the Turkish border.[/size]
[size=45]The two leaders focused on the importance of the "development road", which the Turkish president described as the Silk Road, in terms of economic and development "not only for the two countries but for all the countries of the region."[/size]
[size=45]Iraq and Turkey have a trade exchange relationship of $24 billion last year, with a sweeping tendency of the trade balance in favor of Turkey, and successive Iraqi governments have not been able to reduce it, despite its negative effects on Iraq in terms of its industrial and agricultural losses.[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, Iraqi analysts believe that Baghdad can invest this reality as a pressure card against Ankara in exchange for obtaining Iraq's water and sovereign rights, especially in light of the deteriorating economic conditions in Turkey in conjunction with Erdogan's preparations to run in the most difficult elections in his political history in less than two months.[/size]
[size=45]In addition to the economic card, Al-Sudani went to Ankara, supported by the positive atmosphere in the region in the wake of the outburst of normalization that it is witnessing, especially the Saudi-Iranian agreement.[/size]
[size=45]In Yilmaz's opinion, "the energy file in general and gas in particular, after the Ukraine war, is considered one of the most important files of interest to Ankara at the present time with Iraq, especially after the decision of the International Tribunal to ban the sale of Iraqi Kurdistan's oil without the approval of the central government."[/size]
[size=45]Iraq won the lawsuit against Turkey in the Permanent Court of Arbitration, announcing the suspension of the export of 450,000 barrels of crude oil per day from the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq and northern Kirkuk, and the Iraqi Ministry of Oil announced that “Turkey has informed Iraq that it will respect the arbitration decision to stop importing Iraqi oil without Central government approval.[/size]
[size=45]Nana links “Turkey’s need for energy (oil and gas) from Iraq and the PKK file, in exchange for Iraq’s need for water,” expecting that “Ankara will continue to put pressure on Baghdad through the water card.”[/size]
[size=45]He concludes his speech by saying: “In general, any agreement between the Iraqi and Turkish governments will be temporary, due to the absence of the will to solve outstanding problems strategically and permanently, because the fluctuations in the outstanding and chronic files serve the electoral reasons for both parties.”
26-03-2023 | Source: Al-Nahar Al-Arabi[/size]
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