[size=32]Rohani, who faces a political storm in Iran, is safe in the face of American threats
- 2 Minutes
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Iranian President Hassan Rowhani at the United Nations this week has been under intense pressure from the United States, which seeks to isolate the Islamic Republic and take advantage of the pain of growing sanctions and anti-government anger to curb what it says is Iran's "malicious activities" in the Middle East.
The Iranians have been embroiled in the anti-Iranian US antagonism since President Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal last spring and began to reinstate punitive sanctions, which analysts say have quickly drowned the Iranian currency and helped push prices higher.
But the White House's threats against Iran's "aggression" barely affect Rohani himself. Even as his own private storm at home is battling political fighting and widespread discontent, analysts say, his position remains secure.
Of course, the Iranians say they are more disappointed with their policy and politicization than ever, and use the term "hopeless" frequently when they talk about the extent of corruption and mismanagement that ruin their daily lives, and fear of further sanctions.
However, even though Rouhani has become a preferred target within Iran - as well as within his own central faction Hope - the roots of popular discontent are diverse, long-standing, and unlikely, as the Iranians say, to lead to his downfall.
"Ruhani knows very well that there is no alternative," says Nasser Hadian, a political scientist at Tehran University. Not the conservatives, not the supreme leader, not the reformers, and certainly not pragmatists in his camp. They all know they do not have a better alternative. "
"The community is very upset, and they have a lot of legitimate concerns," says Mr Hadian. But I think they are not sure about the alternative. " He adds that talking about "regime change" among some US officials is just "hopeful thinking."
He also says that the assumptions about Iran to some in the White House are incorrect: that the Iranian state is weak, and that the Iranians are ready to overthrow the regime. Instead, the state, he says, "is completely controlling, fully responsible, and can easily suppress the protest."
"Rouhani is confident that his full storm may not be complete at all. He thinks he can survive for a few months ... and that the pressure will be much lower. "
Fear of the future
Events in Iran gave a different impression when weeks of protests swept across the country at the beginning of the year. Since then, industrial strikes and other protests have occurred from time to time, when labor layoffs, the collapse of the economy, and many electoral promises have failed.
"People here are not sure about their future," asks an old journalist who asked not to be named. How much can this continue? "
"Politicians ... have no answers to such questions. When there was a war with Iraq, we knew, in one way or another, that it would end. But, what about now? Will the United States cease to be a superpower? I do not think so".
"Everybody understands this, and it puts a lot of negative psychological pressure on people."
The adjustment was difficult, especially after the high expectations of the prosperity of the nuclear deal, to which Iran has complied and complied with its terms. Even while Rouhani was under attack from all sides of Iran's political spectrum, there was internal fighting in both the conservative and reformist wings.
The first presentation of the attack was a stinging critique from within the same faction of the "Hope". In a violent speech to parliament this month, MP Barouana Salahshouri casts a barrage of criticisms on the government's performance, saying Rohani continues to deny that Iran is grappling with crises, even as "everyone knows" otherwise.
She said she wanted to complain to the clerics about "persecution against our people," but found they were more interested in covering their heads and riding bicycles than "focusing on corruption, poverty and the reasons why people are fleeing religion."
"People have far higher expectations than Rouhani," said Salahshouri, who holds a doctorate in psychology.Despite criticism of her speech - as well as much support - she says institutions such as the Guardian Council, which scrutinizes candidates running for president, have already begun to respond to its recommendations.
"This is the beginning," says Ms. Salahshouri. "It was an invitation to wake up to be more responsive." Iran is a dynamic country and in a state of "sustained reform," she says, so there is optimism despite what she calls "giant challenges".
"We live in a society where people may seem hopeless or hopeless, but even small things like my speech give people such excitement and a reason to live who are still struggling to improve it."
Overcome mistrust
Some Iranians say that the current lack of confidence has accumulated over decades and will be difficult to overcome.
"This is an accumulation of all the bad things the regime has done to people, women, students, artists and filmmakers, including sending the Basij (militia) to the streets" to crack down on post-election protests, said a veteran analyst who asked not to be named. 2009.
The analyst adds: "all of this was deprived people even the smallest of things that make them happy."
However, he adds, the same debates about whether Iran's revolutionary rulers could solve the problems were raised 10, 20 and 30 years ago, during times of crisis. It reduces the chances of an uprising.
"This happened before, and at the last minute this system found the ability to be flexible," he says, citing the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988; the election of reformist President Mohammad Khatami in 1997; and the nuclear agreement, which witnessed the handshake of Iranian officials to Iran's enemy And negotiations with him - all unexpected events helped to alleviate the popular discontent.
The next round of US sanctions is due to begin on Nov. 4, aimed at stopping Iranian oil sales. And will "certainly cause protests and dissatisfaction," says Hossein Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief of the radical Kayhan newspaper.
"This is very normal when people feel inflation," says Shariatmadari. But he also says that "it is also a good thing that Trump and [National Security Adviser John] Bolton continue to threaten us: people realize that aggression comes from that side, so the reaction will be directed to him, not to the government."
The need for transparency
Nevertheless, the social divide in Iran remains wide, and society appears to be cracking further as economic and social pressures mount.
"Our own experience is that if there is a separation between the government and the people, we will be defeated," says Mehdi Rahmanian, managing director of the reformist Sharq newspaper. "We have to make people stand behind the ruling regime (the Islamic Republic)."
He says the only way forward for the government is to talk transparently to people and fight corruption. That has already begun. "
One of the craftsmen, who asked not to be named, also said that in the past 20 years the Iranians have had reformist and hard-line presidents, and now a middle-class president has also "failed", which was "the end of the line."
"There is no alternative, and the Iranians do not know what they want," he says. He adds that his father was shouting to protesters earlier this year, safe at home in front of his television screen. But when his son said he wanted to go out, his father tried to stop him.
"Ninety-five percent of Iranians want to live to see the future," he said. In Tehran at least, the presence of protesters was limited to a very small area, he recalls. Just steps away from the protesters, across the street, lovers were flirting on park benches.
"It's a revolution that happens when 20 or 30 meters from the street is on fire, while the rest of the city lives as usual. What revolution? "
The Iranians have been embroiled in the anti-Iranian US antagonism since President Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal last spring and began to reinstate punitive sanctions, which analysts say have quickly drowned the Iranian currency and helped push prices higher.
But the White House's threats against Iran's "aggression" barely affect Rohani himself. Even as his own private storm at home is battling political fighting and widespread discontent, analysts say, his position remains secure.
Of course, the Iranians say they are more disappointed with their policy and politicization than ever, and use the term "hopeless" frequently when they talk about the extent of corruption and mismanagement that ruin their daily lives, and fear of further sanctions.
However, even though Rouhani has become a preferred target within Iran - as well as within his own central faction Hope - the roots of popular discontent are diverse, long-standing, and unlikely, as the Iranians say, to lead to his downfall.
"Ruhani knows very well that there is no alternative," says Nasser Hadian, a political scientist at Tehran University. Not the conservatives, not the supreme leader, not the reformers, and certainly not pragmatists in his camp. They all know they do not have a better alternative. "
"The community is very upset, and they have a lot of legitimate concerns," says Mr Hadian. But I think they are not sure about the alternative. " He adds that talking about "regime change" among some US officials is just "hopeful thinking."
He also says that the assumptions about Iran to some in the White House are incorrect: that the Iranian state is weak, and that the Iranians are ready to overthrow the regime. Instead, the state, he says, "is completely controlling, fully responsible, and can easily suppress the protest."
"Rouhani is confident that his full storm may not be complete at all. He thinks he can survive for a few months ... and that the pressure will be much lower. "
Fear of the future
Events in Iran gave a different impression when weeks of protests swept across the country at the beginning of the year. Since then, industrial strikes and other protests have occurred from time to time, when labor layoffs, the collapse of the economy, and many electoral promises have failed.
"People here are not sure about their future," asks an old journalist who asked not to be named. How much can this continue? "
"Politicians ... have no answers to such questions. When there was a war with Iraq, we knew, in one way or another, that it would end. But, what about now? Will the United States cease to be a superpower? I do not think so".
"Everybody understands this, and it puts a lot of negative psychological pressure on people."
The adjustment was difficult, especially after the high expectations of the prosperity of the nuclear deal, to which Iran has complied and complied with its terms. Even while Rouhani was under attack from all sides of Iran's political spectrum, there was internal fighting in both the conservative and reformist wings.
The first presentation of the attack was a stinging critique from within the same faction of the "Hope". In a violent speech to parliament this month, MP Barouana Salahshouri casts a barrage of criticisms on the government's performance, saying Rohani continues to deny that Iran is grappling with crises, even as "everyone knows" otherwise.
She said she wanted to complain to the clerics about "persecution against our people," but found they were more interested in covering their heads and riding bicycles than "focusing on corruption, poverty and the reasons why people are fleeing religion."
"People have far higher expectations than Rouhani," said Salahshouri, who holds a doctorate in psychology.Despite criticism of her speech - as well as much support - she says institutions such as the Guardian Council, which scrutinizes candidates running for president, have already begun to respond to its recommendations.
"This is the beginning," says Ms. Salahshouri. "It was an invitation to wake up to be more responsive." Iran is a dynamic country and in a state of "sustained reform," she says, so there is optimism despite what she calls "giant challenges".
"We live in a society where people may seem hopeless or hopeless, but even small things like my speech give people such excitement and a reason to live who are still struggling to improve it."
Overcome mistrust
Some Iranians say that the current lack of confidence has accumulated over decades and will be difficult to overcome.
"This is an accumulation of all the bad things the regime has done to people, women, students, artists and filmmakers, including sending the Basij (militia) to the streets" to crack down on post-election protests, said a veteran analyst who asked not to be named. 2009.
The analyst adds: "all of this was deprived people even the smallest of things that make them happy."
However, he adds, the same debates about whether Iran's revolutionary rulers could solve the problems were raised 10, 20 and 30 years ago, during times of crisis. It reduces the chances of an uprising.
"This happened before, and at the last minute this system found the ability to be flexible," he says, citing the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988; the election of reformist President Mohammad Khatami in 1997; and the nuclear agreement, which witnessed the handshake of Iranian officials to Iran's enemy And negotiations with him - all unexpected events helped to alleviate the popular discontent.
The next round of US sanctions is due to begin on Nov. 4, aimed at stopping Iranian oil sales. And will "certainly cause protests and dissatisfaction," says Hossein Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief of the radical Kayhan newspaper.
"This is very normal when people feel inflation," says Shariatmadari. But he also says that "it is also a good thing that Trump and [National Security Adviser John] Bolton continue to threaten us: people realize that aggression comes from that side, so the reaction will be directed to him, not to the government."
The need for transparency
Nevertheless, the social divide in Iran remains wide, and society appears to be cracking further as economic and social pressures mount.
"Our own experience is that if there is a separation between the government and the people, we will be defeated," says Mehdi Rahmanian, managing director of the reformist Sharq newspaper. "We have to make people stand behind the ruling regime (the Islamic Republic)."
He says the only way forward for the government is to talk transparently to people and fight corruption. That has already begun. "
One of the craftsmen, who asked not to be named, also said that in the past 20 years the Iranians have had reformist and hard-line presidents, and now a middle-class president has also "failed", which was "the end of the line."
"There is no alternative, and the Iranians do not know what they want," he says. He adds that his father was shouting to protesters earlier this year, safe at home in front of his television screen. But when his son said he wanted to go out, his father tried to stop him.
"Ninety-five percent of Iranians want to live to see the future," he said. In Tehran at least, the presence of protesters was limited to a very small area, he recalls. Just steps away from the protesters, across the street, lovers were flirting on park benches.
"It's a revolution that happens when 20 or 30 meters from the street is on fire, while the rest of the city lives as usual. What revolution? "
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