[size=32]The United States needs international partners to contain the Iranian aggression
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The opening of UN General Assembly meetings and the presence of the US president is often seen as an opportunity to present a global agenda by delivering a keynote address and meetings highlighting the administration's priorities. After 11 September 2001, President Bush used his attendance at United Nations General Assembly meetings to urge the international community to take seriously the threat of terrorism. (The opening of General Assembly meetings that year was delayed until November owing to the events of 11 September.)
In his first speech at the United Nations, Obama focused on combating nuclear proliferation and climate change, two issues that helped define his presidency and culminated in the nuclear deal with Iran (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and the Paris Climate Agreement. Two years ago, President Trump put forward his principles of "America first" from the General Assembly, declaring that "the United States can no longer be exploited or a unilateral agreement whereby the United States gets nothing in return." He continued to threaten North Korea's "little rocket man" and questioned the viability of the Iranian regime.
This year, the world - and global markets - will be eagerly awaiting what President Trump will say about Iran and how the United States intends to respond to rising tensions in the Persian Gulf. In May, Iran began disrupting and interdicting tankers and shot down a US drone on June 20. More recently, Iran was responsible for rocket and drone attacks on a Saudi oil field and a major oil facility in Abqaiq on 14 September.
Ironically, Trump spent the week before the UN General Assembly in building speculation about whether to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. The question now will be whether and how the United States will respond to Iran's provocations, which have been met with a limited US response rather than further sanctions - adding to the so-called “maximum pressure” campaign of the United States.
In the wake of the attack on Saudi Arabia, Trump tweeted that the United States was "on alert" but would wait to hear what the Saudis would say "about who they think is behind this attack, and on what conditions we will move forward." US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pointed directly to Iran, tweeting that "Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world's energy supplies." So far, the Saudis have declared that the drones and missiles used in the attack were Iranian, but have not been certain that Iran carried out the attack, suggesting that one of its agents may have launched the attack in a bid to ease pressure on Iran to respond militarily.
Despite President Trump's love of dramatic enthusiasm, he is unlikely to use the General Assembly platform to do something similar to Adlai Stevenson (when he showed photographs of Soviet missile sites in Cuba to the world). On the one hand, this may link the US president with a military response or make his position seem weak if he withdraws without any clear Iranian concessions. But Trump is very likely to make threats, as he did with North Korea in 2017, and offer a vague way out: “If the United States is forced to defend itself or its allies, we have no choice but to destroy North Korea completely… The United Nations is willing, willing and able to do so, but hopefully this will not be necessary. ” Since then, Trump has met twice with Kim Jong-un, while North Korea continues its missile tests.
Trump may end up speaking in a loud tone without any real threat, especially because the US president does not want to go to war, especially as he is about to enter the election year. But there are advantages to his boast as long as America's allies in Europe believe that the United States may actually respond to Iran by using covert or proportionate means. The threat of use of force by the United States or Israel against Iran's nuclear program has compelled Europeans and others to impose financial sanctions that eventually pushed Iran to the negotiating table in 2014. Europeans should also be concerned about Iran's insolence and the possibility of major unrest. In the future oil market.
Traditionally, it was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who magnified the threat of force against Iran, using his annual participation in the UN General Assembly to highlight Iran's nuclear program and other threatening actions. But Netanyahu will not come to New York this year because of his focus on coalition negotiations in his country, where he faces an uphill battle to stay on. Even if Netanyahu is not in command, Israeli attacks on Iranian targets in Syria and more recently in Iraq are likely to continue under any Israeli prime minister. There is always the possibility that Hezbollah will retaliate if these attacks claim the lives of a large number of Iranian Qods Force operatives, which could lead to a wider regional war.
Trump and his team should use the week of the UN General Assembly to build an alliance that condemns Iranian behavior and is ready to take steps against Iran, proportionately or even directly, if Tehran launches another potentially traumatic attack against an oil tanker or foreign territory. The international community must be prepared to do so not out of great love for Saudi Arabia or Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, but to prevent Iran from further terrorism and hostilities in the region.
The unilateral “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran should become a multifaceted campaign, with Iran being given an outlet as an alternative to sponsoring terrorism, firing missiles and drones and targeting Saudi Arabia. This outlet may be the promise of a limited easing of sanctions or a reintroduction of exemptions to some oil sales in return for a verifiable cessation of terrorist activity in the Gulf region.
Trump may underestimate the value of the allies - and consider that they are not paying the right price to preserve the security of America or its markets - but he needs more international partners than ever to break the escalation of the conflict with Iran. He should use his speech at the United Nations and his meetings in New York to make appropriate presentations to the traditional European partners of the United States and seek their cooperation if he is to lay the foundation for a "better agreement" with Iran in the future on its nuclear program and terrorist activities.
[size]The Washington Institute
http://rawabetcenter.com/archives/96544
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