An American vision warns Iraq against “falling into the Chinese embrace”: Do not get too excited

POSTED ON[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] BY [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

[size=52]An American vision warns Iraq against “falling into the Chinese embrace”: Do not get too excited[/size]

[size=45][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]The American “Washington Institute” placed the political changes inside Iraq, including the formation of the government of Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, and the announcement of the “Development Road” project, within the framework of the geopolitical transformations taking place in the region and the world, calling for caution against the increasing Iraqi shift towards China.[/size]
[size=45]The American Institute stated in a report that Al-Sudani’s arrival to the prime ministership in Baghdad was not as smooth as required by the forces close to the eastern axis. Rather, there were several factors that contributed to Al-Sudani’s arrival to the position.[/size]
[size=45]Reasons for installing Sudanese[/size]
[size=45]The report believes that among the factors in Sudan’s accession to the prime ministership were the decision of the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, to withdraw his bloc from the political process, the feeling of parties close to Iran of the necessity of passing a relatively acceptable prime minister in the regional and international forum, the intense competition between the Gulf and Iran, and the fear of the continued repercussions of the tense relationship. With Washington caused by the administration of former President Donald Trump, and the dominance of various armed groups close to the Tehran axis.[/size]
[size=45]The report said that in light of these fragile conditions and confused relations, the Sudanese government tried to circumvent the traditional binary choice between Washington, the West, and most of the Gulf states on the one hand, and Tehran, Damascus, Lebanon, and behind them, Moscow, on the other hand.[/size]
[size=45]In addition, the report pointed out that the new road came through a clear and bright designation called the “Development Road” project, which, according to what evidence points to Beijing, is the third road to the future.[/size]
[size=45]The American report considered that the political reorganization in Iraq came as a reaction to the changing views of Iraqis towards the United States and the broader geopolitical space, including the meager American withdrawal from Afghanistan and the political changes in the American political methodology with the arrival of President Joe Biden, and the failure of the process of reviving the nuclear agreement with Iran, The stagnation of the Syrian file, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s steadfast support for Russian President Vladimir Putin, the ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine, the movement of the economy linked to oil prices, inflation and financial turmoil in currency rates from Cairo to Tehran, and the issue of fear of strict economic sanctions.[/size]
[size=45]He added, “What is most important in the end is the increasing Chinese economic rise.”[/size]
[size=45]Iraq and the Chinese embrace[/size]
[size=45]The report found that since the American occupation and the fall of Saddam's regime in 2003, Iraq has not been able to emerge from the cycle of American and Gulf rivalry in the face of Tehran and its allies, as this state of bilateral competition has exhausted its forces internally and made it an arena for settling scores, and the Iraqis have paid a heavy price as a result of this situation.[/size]
[size=45]He continued, saying that clear developments in international policies in the Middle East arena prompted Iraqi officials in Baghdad to look from a new window that might worry Washington.[/size]
[size=45]He added that regional developments began to indicate that the American international contraction and the Russian inability to lead the anti-American part of the world are paving the way for Beijing to make its political path to that region.[/size]
[size=45]The report stated that China was and remains a prominent economic player in that region through its large trade exchange with the Middle East, where goods flow, attractive energy markets, the movement of intermediary companies and financial interfaces, promising construction projects, underwriting markets and banking services.[/size]
[size=45]Now, the report says that this role has begun to take a political form as well, as Beijing has found itself playing a role in the political files of that region, which was seen as an arena that must remain under American cover.[/size]
[size=45]Likewise, the report says that Iraqi officials in Baghdad are attracted to the Chinese policy presented by Chinese diplomats, and they believe that China is indifferent to the style of government in third world countries, does not interfere in regional conflicts directly, and avoids contact with sensitive files in the region, such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Observers often draw a comparison between the clear decline in American interest in the region and the rapid Chinese rise in the economy.[/size]
[size=45]American fluctuations[/size]
[size=45]In addition, the report said that the change in the US administration prompted Iraqi officials to be cautious, especially after they realized that it was not possible to settle for agreements and treaties with Washington that might end with a change in the US administration.[/size]
[size=45]He continued, saying that Baghdad, which had long and close relations with Moscow in the period preceding the fall of Saddam Hussein, realizes that Russia cannot fill the American vacuum if it happens.[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that the recent agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two arch enemies in the region, and under the auspices of Beijing, was a political announcement of the Chinese appearance in the Middle East forum.[/size]
[size=45]He added that Iraq, which had a role in those negotiations, was watching with astonishment how Washington was watching the agreement happen without doing anything.[/size]
[size=45]He pointed out that Iraq was watching how the Gulf and regional powers affiliated with Washington were competing to submit requests to join the “BRICS” bloc, which many in the Third World view as a possible alternative to the current Western leadership of the world.[/size]
[size=45]He continued, saying that the long-term Chinese-Iranian agreement was another example of Beijing's expansion and its reach to the Iraqi border.[/size]
[size=45]The report saw that the noticeable decline in the United States’ reactions to these developments prompted Al-Sudani and his team to propose the “Development Road” project, a project that some consider to be an extension of China’s “Belt and Road” projects. This step was an Iraqi declaration to open the country politically to China.[/size]
[size=45]The report stated that Chinese companies have investments worth billions of dollars in Iraq and that the volume of trade exchange between the two countries “exceeded 53 billion US dollars in 2022,” according to a statement by the Chinese embassy in Baghdad, but China’s future political role was strengthened by the announcement of the project exclusively.[/size]
[size=45]The path of development and its problems[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that the project consists of elements similar to Chinese projects in a number of Central Asian countries, as it consists of virtual commercial traffic linked to the development of ports and a highway network extending from the Gulf to the entrance to Turkey from the Zakho side. It also includes basic elements similar to Chinese projects, such as long railway lines. Which is used to transport goods and people.[/size]
[size=45]The report recalled a statement by the Chinese ambassador to Iraq, Cui Wei, last June, in which he said that “the Iraqi strategic development project is complementary to the Chinese Belt and Road Project.”[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that this reflects the reality of the Chinese vision towards the project, which the current Iraqi reality does not seem capable of implementing, as the Iraqi ability to achieve the success of the project does not cause optimism.[/size]
[size=45]The report explained that Iraqi officials need to face the fact that Iraq does not have the ability to commit to implementing the plans of this huge project, whose announced cost reaches 17 billion dollars, as the infrastructure is collapsed, basic services are weak, and security fragility continues to cast its shadow over the country.[/size]
[size=45]In addition, the budget is an unstable rentier budget linked to the price of oil, which constitutes an unsustainable economic situation for a country hoping to invest in major business projects.[/size]
[size=45]He continued, saying that there are clear signs of a decline in the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar and an accelerating decline in the level of per capita income, and there is also suspicion in the Kurdistan Region of the project’s paths, which avoid passing through the region with the aim of deliberately reducing its economic role “under the pretext of the difficulty of the mountainous geography there.”[/size]
[size=45]He pointed out that the project may push countries that benefit from Iraq's current reality to oppose its implementation, adding that Iran may be one of these opposing countries, especially if it senses the danger to its political and economic influence in Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]The report concluded by saying that regardless of the feasibility of the project plan, it should be seen as an indication of “Iraqi leaning towards the Chinese embrace,” adding that Iraqi officials must be more cautious, and not be confident that Chinese participation will achieve the desired goals they have set, as The protests that broke out in Central Asian countries against old Belt and Road Initiative projects underscore the risks that the Chinese development project may carry, which Iraqi officials are currently ignoring.[/size]
[size=45]He concluded by saying that the enthusiasm that Baghdad is currently showing towards increasing Chinese participation should prompt the American administration to pause a little. If Washington hopes to thwart this step, it must make more efforts to rebuild confidence with its historical allies in the region and address the idea of ​​American abandonment. .[/size]
[size=45]He added that if this negative perception continues, the governments in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE will contribute to increasingly facilitating Chinese access to political decision-making centers in that important geographical region.[/size]
[size=45][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]