“Chronic” obstacles stop the return of Iraqi Kurdistan oil to Turkey... “huge” financial losses
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Economy News - Baghdad
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Added 11/26/2023 - 12:10 PM
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Economy News - Baghdad
The issue of resuming Iraqi Kurdistan's oil exports to Turkey has been attracting the attention of energy experts and observers of oil markets in the Middle East since they were interrupted 7 months ago due to an international ruling against the Kurdistan Regional Government.
Despite much talk about the imminent resumption of Kurdistan oil exports for months; This process may not happen soon, given the huge obstacles standing in the way of return, according to an analysis published on the website of the energy research company Wood Mackenzie.
The Turkish government’s recent statements herald the imminent resumption of Iraqi Kurdistan oil export flows to Turkey via the pipeline linking to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, but until that happens; A group of political and trade issues and dilemmas between the two countries must be resolved, according to the analysis reported by the Energy Research Unit.
Historical background of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline
There is a long history of conflict over control of oil production, exports and revenues between the Iraqi national authorities and the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq.
The oil pipeline extending from the fields of the city of Kirkuk to the port of Ceyhan, also known as the (Iraq-Turkey) pipeline, entered the framework of the simmering conflict between the federal government and the regional government over the past decade. Which led to exposing Iraqi oil exports to Turkey to a state of severe tension, especially during recent years.
The Turkish government’s recent statements herald the imminent resumption of Iraqi Kurdistan oil export flows to Turkey via the pipeline linking to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, but until that happens; A group of political and trade issues and dilemmas between the two countries must be resolved, according to the analysis reported by the Energy Research Unit.
Historical background of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline
There is a long history of conflict over control of oil production, exports and revenues between the Iraqi national authorities and the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq.
The oil pipeline extending from the fields of the city of Kirkuk to the port of Ceyhan, also known as the (Iraq-Turkey) pipeline, entered the framework of the simmering conflict between the federal government and the regional government over the past decade. Which led to exposing Iraqi oil exports to Turkey to a state of severe tension, especially during recent years.
In order to understand the story of this line, It is inevitable to go back to history a little, starting in 1973, which witnessed an agreement reached between Turkey and Iraq to extend a pipeline from the Kirkuk fields to the port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea.
The pipeline consists of two pipes; One is 40 inches in diameter and the other increases to 46 inches. The first line was commissioned in 1977, while the other was commissioned a decade later, according to Wood Mackenzie's analysis.
The 40-inch pipeline was later damaged as it fell into disuse, and then in 2010, an amendment to the original agreement was signed by both parties that stipulated that the remaining pipeline would be used to transport, load and store Iraqi crude oil.
At the same time, because the second pipeline was not operational; The agreement was temporarily suspended until guarantees were made that Iraq would send the minimum amount of oil through the pipeline network.
Why and when did the pipeline close?
In 2013, the KRG built a branch line from the abandoned 40-inch pipeline and began exporting oil through it from the Khurmala, Tawki, and Sheikhan fields under its control.
This angered the Iraqi federal government on the grounds that the Kurdistan region does not have the right to export its oil through Turkey, and that doing so constitutes a violation of the terms of the original agreement. Which led to the outbreak of a legal battle between Baghdad and Ankara that lasted 9 years.
In March 2023, the International Arbitration Court in Paris issued a ruling in favor of the federal government, which Turkey recognized and the pipeline from which it received Iraqi Kurdistan's oil exports was immediately closed.
As a result, Kurdistan's oil storage facilities quickly became full; This harmed operators and international oil companies operating in the region, forcing them to reduce production as the local market became saturated.
The international ruling obligated Turkey to pay compensation to the federal government of Iraq amounting to $1.5 billion for Iraqi Kurdistan oil exports that arrived at the Turkish port of Ceyhan without Baghdad’s approval during the period from 2014 to 2018. How did the Kurdistan region and Iraq react
?
The significant decline in Iraqi Kurdistan's oil production has put the regional government's financial resources under unprecedented pressure; This forced it, in April 2023, to announce its approval to sell oil from the fields under its control through the Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO).
This agreement stipulated that the proceeds of the sale be deposited in a bank account controlled by the Kurds, but under the eyes of the Iraqi federal government.
In June 2023, a new law was passed that significantly reduced the KRG's control over oil sales revenues and obligated Erbil to deliver 400,000 barrels per day of crude oil to Baghdad so that it could receive a share of Iraq's federal budget.
The regional government complied with this requirement only partially and reluctantly. It initially delivered 50,000 barrels per day, which then increased to 200,000 barrels per day in August 2023.
In exchange for this, the Iraqi government expressed its approval for temporary and limited funding for a period of 3 months for the Kurdistan region worth $538 million, which was enough to pay salaries of civil servants, but left the core issues in the dispute over resources unresolved.
What is the current situation?
There is significant progress in recent talks between the Iraqi Oil Marketing Company "SOMO", the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Turkish State Pipeline Company "Botash" towards the return of Iraqi Kurdistan's oil exports to Turkey by reopening the closed pipeline.
Issues under negotiation included pipeline fees, the quality and quantity of oil exports, minimum throughput, and compensation that Turkey must pay ($1.5 billion) for Iraqi Kurdistan's oil exports that it received without Baghdad's approval between 2014 and 2018.
Talks to resume Iraqi Kurdistan oil exports to Turkey need to resolve a number of chronic political and trade issues in order for pipelines to reopen again in a sustainable manner, according to Wood Mackenzie analyst Alexander Araman, who specializes in the Middle East.
The first of these issues that need to be resolved concerns oil merchants who purchase Kurdish oil. The Iraqi Oil Marketing Company "SOMO" must sign new contracts with them despite its ability to resume exports and sell spot shipments without agreeing with them.
Legal issues must also be settled between Ankara and Baghdad and future terms and fees for the pipeline must be approved, in addition to an agreement on how the Iraqi federal government will pay the revenues from the sale of Iraqi Kurdistan’s oil to the regional government, according to the analyst.
Disagreements over international oil company agreements.
Resolving these issues could allow the resumption of Iraqi Kurdistan’s oil exports to Turkey in a sustainable manner, and could also give confidence to international oil companies operating in the region.
These companies were forced to reduce their production significantly since the closure of the export pipeline after international arbitration issued in favor of the federal government, in addition to suffering from delayed payment of their dues to the Kurdistan government.
The last time oil companies operating in the region received a payment of their dues was in March 2023, in exchange for oil produced in September 2022. The governments
in Baghdad and Erbil state that they respect the contractual rights concluded with foreign companies, but there are disagreements over how to pay. Financial arrears of $1 billion for oil already sold and delivered.
There are also disagreements about how to pay future dues in the new situation, as the Iraqi government is demanding that production-sharing agreements previously concluded with companies be amended and converted into profit-sharing contracts, according to Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul-Ghani.
The new Iraqi law stipulates that international oil companies operating in the Kurdistan region pay $6 per barrel, equivalent to the average cost of oil produced in other private regions of Iraq to the federal government.
The pipeline consists of two pipes; One is 40 inches in diameter and the other increases to 46 inches. The first line was commissioned in 1977, while the other was commissioned a decade later, according to Wood Mackenzie's analysis.
The 40-inch pipeline was later damaged as it fell into disuse, and then in 2010, an amendment to the original agreement was signed by both parties that stipulated that the remaining pipeline would be used to transport, load and store Iraqi crude oil.
At the same time, because the second pipeline was not operational; The agreement was temporarily suspended until guarantees were made that Iraq would send the minimum amount of oil through the pipeline network.
Why and when did the pipeline close?
In 2013, the KRG built a branch line from the abandoned 40-inch pipeline and began exporting oil through it from the Khurmala, Tawki, and Sheikhan fields under its control.
This angered the Iraqi federal government on the grounds that the Kurdistan region does not have the right to export its oil through Turkey, and that doing so constitutes a violation of the terms of the original agreement. Which led to the outbreak of a legal battle between Baghdad and Ankara that lasted 9 years.
In March 2023, the International Arbitration Court in Paris issued a ruling in favor of the federal government, which Turkey recognized and the pipeline from which it received Iraqi Kurdistan's oil exports was immediately closed.
As a result, Kurdistan's oil storage facilities quickly became full; This harmed operators and international oil companies operating in the region, forcing them to reduce production as the local market became saturated.
The international ruling obligated Turkey to pay compensation to the federal government of Iraq amounting to $1.5 billion for Iraqi Kurdistan oil exports that arrived at the Turkish port of Ceyhan without Baghdad’s approval during the period from 2014 to 2018. How did the Kurdistan region and Iraq react
?
The significant decline in Iraqi Kurdistan's oil production has put the regional government's financial resources under unprecedented pressure; This forced it, in April 2023, to announce its approval to sell oil from the fields under its control through the Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO).
This agreement stipulated that the proceeds of the sale be deposited in a bank account controlled by the Kurds, but under the eyes of the Iraqi federal government.
In June 2023, a new law was passed that significantly reduced the KRG's control over oil sales revenues and obligated Erbil to deliver 400,000 barrels per day of crude oil to Baghdad so that it could receive a share of Iraq's federal budget.
The regional government complied with this requirement only partially and reluctantly. It initially delivered 50,000 barrels per day, which then increased to 200,000 barrels per day in August 2023.
In exchange for this, the Iraqi government expressed its approval for temporary and limited funding for a period of 3 months for the Kurdistan region worth $538 million, which was enough to pay salaries of civil servants, but left the core issues in the dispute over resources unresolved.
What is the current situation?
There is significant progress in recent talks between the Iraqi Oil Marketing Company "SOMO", the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Turkish State Pipeline Company "Botash" towards the return of Iraqi Kurdistan's oil exports to Turkey by reopening the closed pipeline.
Issues under negotiation included pipeline fees, the quality and quantity of oil exports, minimum throughput, and compensation that Turkey must pay ($1.5 billion) for Iraqi Kurdistan's oil exports that it received without Baghdad's approval between 2014 and 2018.
Talks to resume Iraqi Kurdistan oil exports to Turkey need to resolve a number of chronic political and trade issues in order for pipelines to reopen again in a sustainable manner, according to Wood Mackenzie analyst Alexander Araman, who specializes in the Middle East.
The first of these issues that need to be resolved concerns oil merchants who purchase Kurdish oil. The Iraqi Oil Marketing Company "SOMO" must sign new contracts with them despite its ability to resume exports and sell spot shipments without agreeing with them.
Legal issues must also be settled between Ankara and Baghdad and future terms and fees for the pipeline must be approved, in addition to an agreement on how the Iraqi federal government will pay the revenues from the sale of Iraqi Kurdistan’s oil to the regional government, according to the analyst.
Disagreements over international oil company agreements.
Resolving these issues could allow the resumption of Iraqi Kurdistan’s oil exports to Turkey in a sustainable manner, and could also give confidence to international oil companies operating in the region.
These companies were forced to reduce their production significantly since the closure of the export pipeline after international arbitration issued in favor of the federal government, in addition to suffering from delayed payment of their dues to the Kurdistan government.
The last time oil companies operating in the region received a payment of their dues was in March 2023, in exchange for oil produced in September 2022. The governments
in Baghdad and Erbil state that they respect the contractual rights concluded with foreign companies, but there are disagreements over how to pay. Financial arrears of $1 billion for oil already sold and delivered.
There are also disagreements about how to pay future dues in the new situation, as the Iraqi government is demanding that production-sharing agreements previously concluded with companies be amended and converted into profit-sharing contracts, according to Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul-Ghani.
The new Iraqi law stipulates that international oil companies operating in the Kurdistan region pay $6 per barrel, equivalent to the average cost of oil produced in other private regions of Iraq to the federal government.
Estimates of the Association of Petroleum Industry in Kurdistan (APIKUR) indicate losses estimated at about $7 billion in export revenues since the closure of the pipeline and the cessation of Iraqi Kurdistan oil exports to Turkey in March 2023. This association represents several 5 oil companies operating in the region, most notably the oil
company Norwegian DNO, Canadian ShaMaran Petroleum, and Gulf Keystone Petroleum, listed on the London Stock Exchange, according to detailed data monitored by the Energy Research Unit.
Expectations for flows to resume at a lower volume
Turkey has lifted its force majeure on technical grounds and reopened the pipeline, and can then begin charging the Iraqi government for pipeline tariffs under the terms of the agreement's amendment in 2010. Total fees are estimated at about $25 million per month
; This may provide an incentive for the Iraqi government to settle compensation claims with Turkey, solve budget problems, share revenues with the Kurdistan government, and then return Kurdistan oil exports to Turkey.
Estimates from the Kurdistan Oil Industry Association indicate that the Iraqi government is incurring more than a million dollars a day in fines for Turkey as a result of its failure to fulfill the obligations of the pipeline agreement with Ankara.
Wood Mackenzie analyst Alex Araman expects the Iraq-Turkey pipeline to return to operating at half its capacity recorded in January 2023, which amounts to 500,000 barrels per day. That is equivalent to 250 thousand barrels per day.
It is expected that most of Iraqi Kurdistan's oil exports to Turkey - after the resumption - will come from the Khurmala field area, which is managed by the local company KAR Group, equivalent to 130 thousand barrels per day.
While another 100,000 barrels per day will come from fields managed by the North Oil Company, foreign companies are expected to refrain from pumping quantities until payment guarantees and dues are clear, according to a Wood Mackenzie analyst.
company Norwegian DNO, Canadian ShaMaran Petroleum, and Gulf Keystone Petroleum, listed on the London Stock Exchange, according to detailed data monitored by the Energy Research Unit.
Expectations for flows to resume at a lower volume
Turkey has lifted its force majeure on technical grounds and reopened the pipeline, and can then begin charging the Iraqi government for pipeline tariffs under the terms of the agreement's amendment in 2010. Total fees are estimated at about $25 million per month
; This may provide an incentive for the Iraqi government to settle compensation claims with Turkey, solve budget problems, share revenues with the Kurdistan government, and then return Kurdistan oil exports to Turkey.
Estimates from the Kurdistan Oil Industry Association indicate that the Iraqi government is incurring more than a million dollars a day in fines for Turkey as a result of its failure to fulfill the obligations of the pipeline agreement with Ankara.
Wood Mackenzie analyst Alex Araman expects the Iraq-Turkey pipeline to return to operating at half its capacity recorded in January 2023, which amounts to 500,000 barrels per day. That is equivalent to 250 thousand barrels per day.
It is expected that most of Iraqi Kurdistan's oil exports to Turkey - after the resumption - will come from the Khurmala field area, which is managed by the local company KAR Group, equivalent to 130 thousand barrels per day.
While another 100,000 barrels per day will come from fields managed by the North Oil Company, foreign companies are expected to refrain from pumping quantities until payment guarantees and dues are clear, according to a Wood Mackenzie analyst.
Source: Energy Research Unit
Views 17
Added 11/26/2023 - 12:10 PM
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