Middle East in 2017: the return of terrorist attacks in Iraq, Kirkuk, Baghdad hinder cooperation Erb

by **Rocky** Fri 30 Dec 2016, 1:41 am

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Middle East in 2017: the return of terrorist attacks in Iraq, Kirkuk, Baghdad hinder cooperation Erb

by Rocky Fri 30 Dec 2016, 1:41 am

[ltr]Middle East in 2017: the return of terrorist attacks in Iraq, Kirkuk, Baghdad hinder cooperation Erbil[/ltr]

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London - Iraq Press - December 30: "Stratfor , "the Center for American Strategic and Security Studies in the forecast for the Middle East in thenew year , said the United States would be less Angmara in the region 's conflicts in 2017 and openthe way for other powers competing for influence there. This competition will take place in the Syrian and Iraqi arena in first class.

It is tempting to believe that the civil war in Syria will end in the next year after Bashar al- Assad regime 's control in one way or another on the major cities. But regime forces deployed in multiple directions so you will not be able to achieve a decisive victory. Also, keeping the land in the north requires restoring First of armed opposition fighters in the areas between Aleppo and Damascus and around Damascus itself. The forces of order and dragged to fight against the "Daesh" in the city of Deir al - Zour in eastern Syria where the besieged regime soldiers.

The land will be restored in the energy belt around destroying another priority.

But these selections on the system 's capabilities are only one factor preventing a solution in 2017.

The presence of foreign powers will increase Square complex conflict as it did in previous years.

The United States would revise its strategy to provide aid to specific factions battling Daesh not the Assad regime, for example , continue to support the Kurdish forces and reduce support for the opposition in Idlib province.

Russia will be able to from a tactical cooperation with the United States and its allies to the extent that it helps them achieve their goals to try to replace the United States as a referee in the negotiations between the opposition and the regime, according to the expectations of "Stratfor".

The other forces are busy fighting against Turkey Daesh expand its influence in northern Syria and Iraq circuit driven by the need to prevent extends Kurdish forces. But Turkey 's strategy threatens Bachtbakea with the Russian and Syrian Kurdish forces. So will the Ankara maintains good relations with Moscow to avoid any complications in the battlefield.

Iraq also will expand Turkey 's influence in the north , where the borders of the Ottoman Empire was drawn through Sinjar, Mosul, Arbil and Kirkuk , the oil - rich. And it will compete in this relaxes with Iran to fill the void left by the defeat of Daesh in Mosul. And it will meet the difficulties in Baghdad in turn control of the province of Nineveh , after the expulsion of Daesh of Mosul. And it threatens the rise of the Turkish role arc of Iranian influence in the region.

And deepen the liberalization of Mosul divisions among the Kurds, especially the Kurdistan Democratic Party , backed by Turkey and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan closest to Iran. Baghdad and will try to regain control of Kirkuk, which would hamper its cooperation with the Kurdistan Regional Government in the field of energy and the sharing of oil revenues.

In addition to the challenges of Turkey abroad do not lack the internal challenges. Combatants Kurds and attacks the problem of permanent presence and role of Ankara in closing the escape routes on Daesh in Syria will make them prime targets for attacks in 2017.

Perhaps most importantly , that the Justice and Development Party ( AKP ) will try to hold a referendum in 2017 to amend the constitution to enhance the powers of the presidency , led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. But the party leading the shaky economy.Turkey, the indebtedness of the dollar will grow with the rising value of the dollar and the instability of the Turkish lira alienate investors fearful of the system originally campaigns against his political opponents. These campaigns will lead to complicate Turkey 's stalled negotiations already with the EU on membership.

2017 will test the durability of the breakthrough in US - Iranian relations. It is expected that the new administration will be more stringent with what it sees as Iranian aggression in the sensitive area harassment naval and missile tests , for example , even without targeting the nuclear deal directly.

It will be a strong US response to Iran 's nuclear program in violation of the agreement into Tehran, but Iran will not challenge the agreement , but if I do that the United States first. It will be Russia is the winner of the US - Iranian tensions, but the agreement will remain in effect through 2017 , despite the threat to the United States to the contrary , because Washington does not want submersion deeper in the conflicts of the Middle East, including entering into a conflict with Iran, according to the expectations of "Stratfor".

Perhaps the economy will be the deciding factor in the Iranian presidential election in May 2017. Regardless of the outcome of the election of Iran will remain under the influence of conservative politicians loyal to the Supreme Leader , who does not trust the United States and Iran , but realizes the need to return to the global economy. An increase in oil production to help it, but the questions surrounding the fate of the nuclear deal and directed US foreign policy might prevent Iran from achieving economic goals.

After the cut fiscal spending and reduce public sector expenditure in 2016 will be able to Saudi Arabia to reduce the deficit in the 2017 budget but the UK will face significant challenges in the implementation of its ambitious under Vision 2030 and Vision 2010 and translated into concrete orientations can be matched by the private sector. And monitor credit four times more than last year to implement the objectives of Vision 2020 will have on the public and private sectors to change their activities according to this approach to provide more employment opportunities.

In the meantime , Saudi Arabia will continue in 2017 its preparations to launch IPO in early 2018 , Aramco and expand the size of the public investment fund to undertake bold investments abroad and diversify investments in different sectors, especially technology sectors to achieve revenues in the long run. The Kingdom will continue its orientation towards reducing dependence on oil by giving priority to the economy.

And it will lead the Emirates , Gulf initiative and assume the completion of technical preparations for the imposition of value added tax by 5 percent. It is expected that the initiative launched in early 2018.

Member states will continue in the Gulf Cooperation Council interrelatedness to counter Iranian influence and to defend their countries against the common economic and security threats. And Saudi Arabia will double its efforts to push the parties in Yemen towards reaching a settlement through negotiations with the UAE strengthen its position in southern Yemen. But Oman will not participate in the Gulf effort to counter Iranian influence, according to the expectations of "Stratfor".

Egypt will try to lure the money capital of the largest possible number of external partners. After the devaluation of the Egyptian pound and the approval of the terms of the International Monetary Fund and the implementation of further reforms on fuel subsidies will have to Cairo to hold more fundamental structural correction , such as cutting public sector salaries and increasing tax revenue. But President Abdel Fattah al- Sisi government will not achieve only modest success in this area , in particular that of ordinary citizens who bear the burden of the economic crisis in the country.

In the meantime , Egypt will continue its role in Libya and support for the brigade Khalifa Haftar , which is expected to continue to strengthen its military and political control in eastern Libya and expand its control in the west, but will not be able to have full control. It is imperative that the cause Hfter divisive position of blocking the negotiations conducted under the auspices of the United Nations to form a national unity government. So Libya will remain a battleground between competing militias limit the chances of a lasting peace agreement in 2017.

It is expected that Daesh loses a lot of its power in Libya , but he will find a haven and his allies in remote areas of Libya. At the same time , al Qaeda - linked militias will continue to expand its influence quietly.

It will undermine the military campaigns in Iraq and Syria to organize Daesh conventional military force but it will not undermine it as a terrorist or rebel. And it will remain remnants Daesh in areas that were under his control exploit ethnic and sectarian divisions in Iraq and Syria. It will be back to the terrorist attacks of Iraq 's cities big exciting ways.

But Daesh attacks abroad will be limited threat. It is certain that returning from Iraq and Syria fighters to their respective countries pose a security threat to the West , but the threat can be contained greater vigilance and security measures and intelligence work. The terrorists will be individuals who do not need significant resources or rely on extensive networks greater threat in 2017, especially in the West.

As accounts Daesh attention of the international community engaged al Qaeda to rebuild himself quietly it reinstated its organizations canning themselves by different names in Libya, Algeria, Mali, Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen. The al - Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula , a source of particular concern, especially targeting the security of Saudi Arabia from the Yemeni territories.

2017 will offer multiple opportunities for Israel 's largest guarantor of its security, the United States. And Republicans in control of the administration and both houses of Congress will be loose by Israel to implement its plans and projects unchecked. But the achievement of these projects on the expense of the Palestinians will lead to strained relations with Egypt and Jordan. It is likely that Israel is stepping up its operations in Syria and Lebanon , taking advantage of the depletion of Hezbollah forces in Syria to a close in the weakening and reducing its ability to acquire sophisticated weapons, according to the expectations of "Stratfor" for the Middle East in 2017 ended with Q

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Middle East in 2017: the return of terrorist attacks in Iraq, Kirkuk, Baghdad hinder cooperation Erb

Middle East in 2017: the return of terrorist attacks in Iraq, Kirkuk, Baghdad hinder cooperation Erb

[ltr]Middle East in 2017: the return of terrorist attacks in Iraq, Kirkuk, Baghdad hinder cooperation Erbil[/ltr]

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