Gulf economies predicament between oil prices and the decline in the level of expectations

Gulf economies predicament between oil prices and the decline in the level of expectations



2017/04/30


The IMF predicts slower growth in Saudi Arabia, the largest Middle East economies and North Africa, to 0.4 percent in 2017 due to the decline in oil production and the procedures under way to adjust the financial situation before rising to 1.3 percent in 2018, the Fund's report "World Economic Outlook" issued and stated that It is expected that growth rates decline in most of the rest of the Gulf cooperation Council (GCC) in a manner similar to Saudi Arabia in 2017.

The data contained in the report of the Fund to reduce real GDP in Saudi Arabia, the growth forecast in 2018 to 1.3 percent from 2.3 percent in the previous forecast issued updated by the Fund's growth forecasts for countries including the Kingdom in January, as the Kingdom has achieved growth in gross domestic product real GDP by 1.4 percent in 2016, linking the Fund's expectations of slower growth OPEC agreement to cut oil production.

Agreed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in November to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day for a period of six months from the first January, Saudi Arabia mainly relies on oil revenues to finance government budget and launched plans for economic transformation in order to reduce dependence on oil in recent years, reducing the Fund's growth forecast for real GDP in the United Arab Emirates to 1.5 percent in 2017 from its previous forecast issued in October of 2.5 percent.

The fund is expected to be in the UAE growth to accelerate to 4.4 percent in 2018, according to the Fund estimates amounted to real GDP growth in the UAE, 2.7 percent in 2016, the Fund maintained its growth forecast for real GDP in Qatar in 2017 at 3.4 percent, unchanged from its previous forecast issued in October, compared with a growth rate of 2.7 percent in 2016, but the fund is expected to slow growth in Qatar to 2.8 percent in 2018.

In Kuwait , the IMF is estimated to contract real GDP was 0.2 percent , compared with forecasts for growth of 2.6 percent in October estimates, the Fund believes that Kuwait will resume growth next year at 3.5 percent.

The total real GDP growth of Kuwait 2.5 percent in 2016, raising the Fund 's growth forecast for real GDP in Bahrain to 2.3 percent in 2017 from its previous forecast of $ 1.8 percent.

But he predicted that next year 's growth to fall to 1.6 percent.

Bahrain has achieved growth in real GDP was 2.9 percent in 2016 according to the Fund 's estimates, and in the Sultanate of Oman Fund is expected to reach real GDP growth of 0.4 percent in 2017 from 2.6 percent in its previous forecast that growth accelerated to 3.8 percent in 2018, and grew Oman 's economy 3.1 percent in 2016.

The World Bank is expected to slow the growth of the economies of the Gulf except Qatar in 2017

As for the World Bank, it is expected to slow the growth of the economies of the GCC countries except Qatar in 2017 compared with the year 2016 for reasons led by the decline in oil production in line with the agreement reached by OPEC last year, the Bank estimates that the growth of the Saudi economy, the largest Gulf Arab economies will slow to 0.6 percent in 2017 from an estimated growth at 1.4 percent in 2016, it said the bank in a report released him that he expected the non-oil economy in the Kingdom recovered with "low frequency correction of public finances" sector to record a growth rate of 2.1 percent this year.

The bank is expected to accelerate Saudi Arabia's economy growth to 2 percent and 2.1 percent in 2018 and 2019 respectively, the bank said that it is expected that in the oil and gas sector in the Kingdom in 2017 growth will depend in line with the recent agreement of OPEC, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and 11 products another big oil, including Russia, had agreed in December to reduce total production by about 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of the year to support crude prices.

And the bank said the Saudi authorities had already cut oil production to 9.8 million barrels per day in January, which is similar to levels before the drop in crude prices in 2014, and on the other hand, the World Bank said he expects the continuation of the current account deficit at four percent of gross domestic product the total in 2017 but is expected to turn the balance to achieve a small surplus starting in 2018 and beyond.

The bank explained that "the situation of public finances is stable in the short term while retaining the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (central bank) huge reserves, but given the average oil price of $ 55 in 2017, according to estimates by the bank, the current financial procedures are inadequate, said the bank he expects to reach the general budget deficit of 10.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

The bank was expected to report "World Economic Outlook" issued in January that the Kingdom's economy grows 1.6 percent in 2017 and continues to grow to 2.5 and 2.6 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

The World Bank is expected to limit the reduction of oil production decided by OPEC growth rate in the UAE this year to 2 percent from 2.3 percent in 2016, while expected to rebound slightly growth to 2.5 and 3.2 percent in 2018 and 2019, and sees the bank said the UAE government set a target growth rate at 4 percent in 2017, a level of ambition apparently due to poor bank liquidity growth potential cuts in oil production as OPEC decided this year.

The World Bank said that it is expected that oil approved by the OPEC production cuts lead to a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in Kuwait, the growth rate to 2.5 percent in 2017, but the bank explained that "oil production may recover in the medium term unless they are negotiated another agreement OPEC, "he said, adding that in addition, the government plans to invest $ 115 billion in the oil sector over the next five years, which would contribute to boost oil production from 2018.

The bank said that with additional support resulting from spending on public investment is expected that the growth rate rises in the country to about 3.2 percent by 2019, the World Bank and is expected to accelerate the growth of Qatar's economy to 3.3 percent in 2017 from 2.9 percent in 2016 with the support of the implementation of projects worth $ 200 billion to modernize the infrastructure facilities before hosting the world Cup and also start production of Barzan gas project card 1.4 billion cubic feet per day in the current year, the bank said that these factors will help offset the amount of the expected decline in natural gas production in the next few years, and the bank "with the beginning of a Stability of investment to host the World Cup is expected to gradually stabilize the growth rate at around 2.5 percent in 2019. "

But the World Bank cut its forecast for the growth of real GDP of Bahrain to 1.9 percent in the years 2017 and 2018 as the continued decline in oil prices negatively affect the private and government consumption in the country, the bank said that it is expected to be suspended a number of investments in the infrastructure sector and that in the absence of drastic measures with regard to the financial risks of Bahrain will remain exposed to financial risks, the World Bank is expected to reach the growth of the economy of the Sultanate of Oman 0.9 percent in 2017 to increase to 2.4 and 2.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

Gulf states want to adopt a value-added tax in January 2018

Senior Emirati finance official said that policy makers in the GCC six aspiring to start working value added tax by five percent at the beginning of next year, despite the administrative and technical obstacles, and plans Cooperation Council has long been the adoption of the tax in 2018 in order to increase non-oil revenues, but economists and officials of some countries have expressed in private conversations about the possibility of skepticism applied simultaneously in all GCC countries under financial pressure due to lower oil prices.

This is due to the complexities of establishing administrative infrastructure for the collection of tax and the difficulty of training companies on their performance in the region do not impose taxes to remember, but Younis Al Khouri, Undersecretary of the UAE Ministry of Finance said that the GCC governments are planning to adopt early and simultaneously, in response to a question whether some sectors in United Arab Emirates may be exempted from the tax to reduce any negative effects on the economy between El-Khoury said the government aimed at applying the five percentage percent globally, but parts of some sectors - education, health care, renewable energy, water and space industries, transport and technology - you may get special treatment .

Khoury said that the government expects the tax proceeds of about 12 billion dirhams ($ 3.3 billion) in the first year.

Official data show that it would be equivalent to about 0.9 percent of the GDP of the UAE's $ 371 billion in 2015 and will aim the authorities from the beginning to record companies that increase annual revenues of $ 100 thousand to pay the tax and expects to comply with 95 percent or more of the companies in the initial stage, and between Khoury said the tax proceeds may gradually increase with the growth of the economy , but the government is not currently considering increasing over the five percent and will not lift them in the future only after a comprehensive socio - economic study.

New Zealand is seeking to complete a trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council after crash

New Zealand is seeking to complete a free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council , which includes six countries , including two of the largest economies in the Middle East region, namely Saudi Arabia and the UAE after the completion of that agreement crash, he visited the Minister of Commerce Todd McClay both the UAE and Kuwait in a bid to promote the agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council the sixth - largest trading partner of his country.

The Council includes both the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, McClay said that "there is still some work to be done but I am optimistic that we can achieve some good progress this year."

The trade between New Zealand and the Gulf Cooperation Council , the size of about three billion NZ dollars ($ 2.16 billion) annually.

The core includes New Zealand 's exports to the region of dairy products and sheep meat and wood are among the basic components of the country 's exports basket.

Comes McClay visits to the region after a meeting with his Saudi counterpart Majid bin Abdullah bronchopulmonary last September, when the two ministers agreed to complete the agreement, and the Gulf States in the midst of a period of economic reform after a decline in oil prices over more than two years in the global markets, which necessitated the reduction of public budgets in the region.

Potential oil crisis effects

Publish "Bloomberg" economic analysis related to already know the guts of the current crisis to the lower oil price, and revealed the location of the report, translated Emirates site 71 of the most direct effects of the decline in the price of oil and the main factors put pressure on the economies and the price of Gulf currencies, as is the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) owner about 29% of the world's oil reserves, and with those declines in oil prices, oil prices fell to the lowest level since February 2009 during the economic crisis, and with a look at some of the pressing points caused by the oil and lower prices are here on the Gulf economies:

1.

stock prices on the brink of collapse

Gulf stocks suffer the biggest decline since 2008, losing these shares nearly $ 200 billion on the index Bloomberg since the start of the decline in oil prices in the month of June 2014, and to illustrate how the comparison between stock prices and linked to estimates of profits can be taken by the State such as the UAE as a model to clarify, investors are seriously trying to address the problem of the so-called "frontier markets" in a country that has 6% of the oil reserves in the world, where the main measuring devices appear in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, how to handle these markets with oil, while it was supposed to be a profit factor these markets around 9.1 to 10.9 according to the standards of measurement, we find that profits during the past 12 months fell to below 8.3 according to the approved measure the index is poised to decline again with the continued decline in the price of oil in this way.

In a statement to Ali Khan, Chief Executive Officer of Asset Management in BGR company which had sold all its shares of Gulf in the second quarter of this year, said that the current investment in the world are concentrated in America to take advantage of the dollar's strength away from the owner of the declining performance index low oil market, said Khan adding: "It's hard to see when it will come another incentive for us to re-evaluation or ownership, but now is ready for adventure again in the UAE and Gulf markets have pulled out intelligently."

2.

Save the investment

Witness Gulf stock markets a large wave of decline in the volume of trading an average of 100 up to 50 points per day in moving markets, apart from the Dubai Stock Exchange, for example, I saw 200 days of trading are all lower than the overall average, and the same applies to the bourses of Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Gulf states also are trying to address this crisis, Saudi Arabia is allowed foreigners to stock ownership scheme, this gave hope to find a shiny day high in light of the repeated declines, but what about the rest? United Arab Emirates, for example, exhausted all these tricks previously have been left before many of them, it has to invent new tricks to give a new hope of life to their markets.

3.

Increase borrowing costs

The current crisis has caused an increase of GCC financial institutions feeling the pressure, Saudi Arabia, for example, banks were forced to increase the interest rate dramatically did not happen seven years ago and suffered from 4 months of heavy losses and also had to borrow money from other banks to survive on their own decoding bankruptcy.

The same was repeated in the UAE, where the interest rate banks doubled in the last three months in an unprecedented way since 2010, and the same is repeated albeit less sharply in Kuwait and Bahrain.

4.

reduce currency speculation and the value of it

It jumped futures contracts used to speculate on the Saudi riyal during the last 12 months to the highest level in the past 13 years.

Which reflects the growing speculation about the intention of Saudi Arabia to abandon its peg to the dollar, which means that the government will allow to weaken its currency for the first time in three decades, the UAE is currently experiencing the same thing Valdarham in the most difficult circumstances against the dollar since 2009 , and everyone expects that the government is moving toward adjusting the exchange rate the dollar against the dirham to save the currency.

So far, Gulf experts, economists did not reach the feasibility of continuing their dollar pegs in this form, and are still differences and the lack of clarity decisions exists with regard to the matter Sometimes news about the intention of states decode the currency peg appear and sometimes disappear news, according to the "Bank of America", this is let the Gulf states in front of two things, either decode linking oil to the dollar or decrypt the pegs to the dollar, and it seems that the second option economically and politically easier but not guaranteed results.

Source / network news information

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