[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Economy News / Baghdad
An opinion poll conducted by Reuters showed that the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will grow at a much slower pace in 2023 compared to last year, as their resources are affected by the decline in revenues from crude oil sales and production cuts.
Oil prices have risen by about 20 percent since falling to the lowest level this year at around $70 a barrel on March 20, mainly supported by the OPEC+ alliance's decision to cut oil production by about 1.16 million barrels per day, as well as the reopening of China.
However, the prospects for achieving more gains will be greatly weakened in the coming months due to the slowdown in global demand, which is not good news for the GCC countries that depend heavily on oil.
According to a Reuters poll conducted from April 6 to 25 and included 16 economists, the Saudi economy, the world's largest oil producer, will grow 3.2 percent this year, less than half of its 8.7 percent growth rate in 2022.
The growth rate is expected to be the same next year.
“Oil production cuts will lead to a sharp slowdown in GDP growth in Saudi Arabia this year,” said James Swanston, an emerging markets expert at Capital Economics. “In the rest of the Gulf countries, the double whammy of lower oil production and oil prices will affect both oil and non-oil GDP.” .
In the UAE, the second largest economy among the GCC countries, economic growth is expected to slow to 3.7 percent in 2023 and 4.0 percent next year, much lower than the 7.6 percent recorded last year.
Growth is also expected to slow in Qatar and Bahrain, to 2.7 percent this year, and the Sultanate of Oman's economy to grow 2.6 percent in 2023, while economic growth in Kuwait will decline at a much greater pace, to 1.5 percent.
The situation of the countries of the region is no exception, as growth is also expected to slow in most major economies this year in light of the impact of raising interest rates on economic activity, along with the impact of high inflation on consumer demand.
However, inflation estimates for the Gulf countries were lower than their counterparts for many major economies.
The inflation rate in the region is expected to range between 2.1 and 3.3 percent this year and decline below that in 2024.
It is also expected that most economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will continue to enjoy double-digit current account surpluses in 2023, despite concerns about slowing oil production. Only Oman and Bahrain are expected to post single digit surpluses.
Views 3Added 04/26/2023 - 3:06 PM[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]