[size=30]An American writer presents an interesting scenario on Iraq: What if Washington Killed Saddam Hussein in 1991?
[ltr]2021.04.23 - 10:30[/ltr]
[/size]
[ltr]2021.04.23 - 10:30[/ltr]
[/size]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
[size=16]like [size=16]0 [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/size][/size]
[size=16]like [size=16]0 [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/size][/size]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.][url=https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%A8 %D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A %D9%8A%D9%82%D8%AF%D9%85 %D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%88 %D9%85%D8%AB%D9%8A%D8%B1 %D8%B9%D9%86 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82: %D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B0%D8%A7 %D9%84%D9%88 %D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%AA %D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B4%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%86 %D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85 %D8%AD%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%86 %D9%81%D9%8A 1991%D8%9F [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.][/url][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
People - Baghdad
The National Interest website has published an article by an American professor and writer discussing a possible scenario in the event of the killing of Saddam Hussein, the former president of the regime, in 1991.
The article "Robert Farley" translated by "People" (April 23, 2021) indicates that the occurrence of such an event "could have led to power struggles between various actors (including Saddam Hussein's vase), which could create instability. And greater opportunities for insurgencies in the north and south, "and gives the international community greater flexibility regarding how to manage Iraq.
Article Text:
In the early days of the 1991 Gulf War air campaign, the United States made a concerted effort to track down and strike Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. This effort was based on the belief that eliminating Saddam Hussein would have two effects: This would throw the Iraqi military hierarchy into disarray, and make the surviving Iraqi leadership more amenable to a negotiated solution.
The effort to kill Saddam Hussein was but one link in the US pursuit of "decapitation" as a political and military strategy. In the post-Cold War era, the United States faced a variety of dictators and terrorists. The American leaders justified this by saying that the steps to crush the head of the snake might make it unnecessary to kill the entire body, thus sparing much damage and civilian death.
The beheadings in 1991 and similar attacks in 2003 failed. What if they succeeded? The former receives more attention than the second, as Hussein made only a minimal contribution to the Iraqi fighting and resistance after March 2003. But the issue of eliminating Hussein in 1991 is interesting. How would the US interaction with Iraq differ from 1991 to 2015 had the decapitation succeeded?
The United States has historically struggled over how to evaluate dictatorial leaders. Frankly, the United States government tends to overestimate the influence of individual players in the system (such as Saddam Hussein), and underestimate the broader structure of regime power in authoritarian countries. Perhaps the most insignificant aspect of this struggle is the repetition of the mind-numbing "time machine to kill the child Hitler".
This is partly due to the need for effective publicity and messaging; The American media find it much easier to understand the idea of a villain, rather than dealing with the complexities of a broad-based government structure with deep roots in certain societal groups.
The United States also works on the assumption that imposing liberal democracy in states is near-normal, and that states will back down from government once unpleasant actors are removed. This belief is deeply ingrained in American political thought, despite centuries of practical political experience and decades of academic work.
Neoconservatives believe that the United States can create democracy by removing dictators, while left-wing critics of American foreign policy regularly imply that authoritarian regimes only survive because of US support.
The belief was demonstrated from an operational military perspective in the form of the neoclassical air power theory that dominated the US Air Force in the 1980s; The "Five Rings" theory by John Warden.
The "five rings" theory suggests that hitting highly influential targets at the heart of the regime (including the leader himself, but also facilities that enabled political and military control) could lead to the collapse of the regime. Indeed, Warden argued that the United States should avoid hitting the deployed Iraqi army, preferring to focus on the regime's goals.
He expressed his belief that the army itself can return and restore order in Iraq after the destruction of Hussein and his surroundings.
The course of the war
How could Hussein's death affect the course of the 1991 Gulf War? Had Hussein's death resulted in a new leadership that could surrender through negotiation and withdraw from Kuwait, the war could have been avoided. But this outcome does not seem particularly likely. The invasion of Kuwait was relatively popular with the Iraqi people (who had deep doubts about the legitimacy of the Kuwaiti state), and was very popular with the military and political hierarchy.
While Hussain tried to impose tight control on Iraqi military movements during the Gulf War, it is not clear that these moves would have differed in any way from the theoretical reality, nor is it clear that Hussein made correct decisions in response to the success of the coalition air campaign, or to The "left hook" threat to encircle the Iraqi forces in Kuwait. Moreover, there is no reason to believe that the United States would have been more willing to push toward Baghdad if Hussein had died in the early hours of the war.
Impact on Iraq
The better question is how Iraqi politics would continue after the war. Hussein's absence may have been felt in the immediate aftermath of the war, when the Iraqi government needed to deal with the uprisings in the north and south. Any successor to Hussein would likely have come from the same Sunni Ba'athist elite, and would have had the same interest in putting down those uprisings. At the same time, a regime less focused on the survival of Hussein himself may have had more flexibility in dealing with the international community and with domestic opponents alike.
Inside Iraq, the Ba'athist power structure would have remained largely intact, despite Hussein's death. And power struggles may erupt between the various actors (including his sons), which could create instability and greater opportunities for rebellions in the north and south. However, without international support, these revolutions lacked the ability to topple the regime, Hussein or not.
Indeed, Hussein's death may have given the international community greater flexibility in how Iraq should be managed. As Charles Dolfer said, the biggest problem the United States faced in interacting with Iraq was its inability to trust Iraqi claims. US negotiators and inspectors have been unable to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Iraq has not maintained chemical, biological, and nuclear ambitions, even as the evidence points to the destruction of Iraqi programs, and even as the Iraqis claim they have moved on.
It is conceivable that the rise of an Iraqi leader did not implicate in playing the role of the same villain that Saddam Hussein was able to alleviate this problem. In particular, a leader with a better sense of international public opinion may have responded with less deafness to the attacks of September 11, 2001, which made it difficult for the Bush administration to rally support for the invasion.
conclusion
As with any counterfactual, the full effects of Saddam Hussein's death during the 1991 Gulf War are difficult to deal with. A successful decapitation is likely to have little impact on the course of the war, or the immediate consequences. But over time, the replacement of Saddam Hussein could have had major implications on both sides of the relationship between Washington and Baghdad. More importantly, it may have given the United States an opportunity to absorb itself for the survival of the Ba'ath regime, which could have prevented the disastrous 2003 war.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
People - Baghdad
The National Interest website has published an article by an American professor and writer discussing a possible scenario in the event of the killing of Saddam Hussein, the former president of the regime, in 1991.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
The article "Robert Farley" translated by "People" (April 23, 2021) indicates that the occurrence of such an event "could have led to power struggles between various actors (including Saddam Hussein's vase), which could create instability. And greater opportunities for insurgencies in the north and south, "and gives the international community greater flexibility regarding how to manage Iraq.
Article Text:
In the early days of the 1991 Gulf War air campaign, the United States made a concerted effort to track down and strike Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. This effort was based on the belief that eliminating Saddam Hussein would have two effects: This would throw the Iraqi military hierarchy into disarray, and make the surviving Iraqi leadership more amenable to a negotiated solution.
The effort to kill Saddam Hussein was but one link in the US pursuit of "decapitation" as a political and military strategy. In the post-Cold War era, the United States faced a variety of dictators and terrorists. The American leaders justified this by saying that the steps to crush the head of the snake might make it unnecessary to kill the entire body, thus sparing much damage and civilian death.
The beheadings in 1991 and similar attacks in 2003 failed. What if they succeeded? The former receives more attention than the second, as Hussein made only a minimal contribution to the Iraqi fighting and resistance after March 2003. But the issue of eliminating Hussein in 1991 is interesting. How would the US interaction with Iraq differ from 1991 to 2015 had the decapitation succeeded?
The United States has historically struggled over how to evaluate dictatorial leaders. Frankly, the United States government tends to overestimate the influence of individual players in the system (such as Saddam Hussein), and underestimate the broader structure of regime power in authoritarian countries. Perhaps the most insignificant aspect of this struggle is the repetition of the mind-numbing "time machine to kill the child Hitler".
This is partly due to the need for effective publicity and messaging; The American media find it much easier to understand the idea of a villain, rather than dealing with the complexities of a broad-based government structure with deep roots in certain societal groups.
The United States also works on the assumption that imposing liberal democracy in states is near-normal, and that states will back down from government once unpleasant actors are removed. This belief is deeply ingrained in American political thought, despite centuries of practical political experience and decades of academic work.
Neoconservatives believe that the United States can create democracy by removing dictators, while left-wing critics of American foreign policy regularly imply that authoritarian regimes only survive because of US support.
The belief was demonstrated from an operational military perspective in the form of the neoclassical air power theory that dominated the US Air Force in the 1980s; The "Five Rings" theory by John Warden.
The "five rings" theory suggests that hitting highly influential targets at the heart of the regime (including the leader himself, but also facilities that enabled political and military control) could lead to the collapse of the regime. Indeed, Warden argued that the United States should avoid hitting the deployed Iraqi army, preferring to focus on the regime's goals.
He expressed his belief that the army itself can return and restore order in Iraq after the destruction of Hussein and his surroundings.
The course of the war
How could Hussein's death affect the course of the 1991 Gulf War? Had Hussein's death resulted in a new leadership that could surrender through negotiation and withdraw from Kuwait, the war could have been avoided. But this outcome does not seem particularly likely. The invasion of Kuwait was relatively popular with the Iraqi people (who had deep doubts about the legitimacy of the Kuwaiti state), and was very popular with the military and political hierarchy.
While Hussain tried to impose tight control on Iraqi military movements during the Gulf War, it is not clear that these moves would have differed in any way from the theoretical reality, nor is it clear that Hussein made correct decisions in response to the success of the coalition air campaign, or to The "left hook" threat to encircle the Iraqi forces in Kuwait. Moreover, there is no reason to believe that the United States would have been more willing to push toward Baghdad if Hussein had died in the early hours of the war.
Impact on Iraq
The better question is how Iraqi politics would continue after the war. Hussein's absence may have been felt in the immediate aftermath of the war, when the Iraqi government needed to deal with the uprisings in the north and south. Any successor to Hussein would likely have come from the same Sunni Ba'athist elite, and would have had the same interest in putting down those uprisings. At the same time, a regime less focused on the survival of Hussein himself may have had more flexibility in dealing with the international community and with domestic opponents alike.
Inside Iraq, the Ba'athist power structure would have remained largely intact, despite Hussein's death. And power struggles may erupt between the various actors (including his sons), which could create instability and greater opportunities for rebellions in the north and south. However, without international support, these revolutions lacked the ability to topple the regime, Hussein or not.
Indeed, Hussein's death may have given the international community greater flexibility in how Iraq should be managed. As Charles Dolfer said, the biggest problem the United States faced in interacting with Iraq was its inability to trust Iraqi claims. US negotiators and inspectors have been unable to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Iraq has not maintained chemical, biological, and nuclear ambitions, even as the evidence points to the destruction of Iraqi programs, and even as the Iraqis claim they have moved on.
It is conceivable that the rise of an Iraqi leader did not implicate in playing the role of the same villain that Saddam Hussein was able to alleviate this problem. In particular, a leader with a better sense of international public opinion may have responded with less deafness to the attacks of September 11, 2001, which made it difficult for the Bush administration to rally support for the invasion.
conclusion
As with any counterfactual, the full effects of Saddam Hussein's death during the 1991 Gulf War are difficult to deal with. A successful decapitation is likely to have little impact on the course of the war, or the immediate consequences. But over time, the replacement of Saddam Hussein could have had major implications on both sides of the relationship between Washington and Baghdad. More importantly, it may have given the United States an opportunity to absorb itself for the survival of the Ba'ath regime, which could have prevented the disastrous 2003 war.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Today at 5:10 pm by Rocky
» utube MM&C 5/7/24 Iraq Dinar- IQD Update - Regional Trade - A Progession of Reforms - A Global Bac
Today at 5:09 pm by Rocky
» After a break of more than 9 years.. the resumption of a government trade meeting between Iraq and A
Today at 8:06 am by Rocky
» A deputy in finance expects the Council of Ministers to approve the budget schedules in today’s sess
Today at 8:02 am by Rocky
» A deputy resolves the controversy over the “transfer supplement” in two ministries
Today at 8:01 am by Rocky
» Al-Halbousi’s “vacant” seat.. Will the coordination framework end the “Taqaddum” dream of an allianc
Today at 7:59 am by Rocky
» The Federal Government issues a state order to stop the Commission’s work procedures regarding the K
Today at 7:57 am by Rocky
» Including the freedom to choose the bank and withdraw the salary for “free”... “My Account” features
Today at 7:55 am by Rocky
» The Central Bank sells more than $250 million during its daily auction
Today at 7:51 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani receives a delegation from the Union of Arab Banks
Today at 7:44 am by Rocky
» Iraq and the United States of America hold trade meetings in Washington
Today at 7:43 am by Rocky
» In pictures... The activities of the Union of Arab Banks conference in Baghdad, “Day Two”
Today at 7:42 am by Rocky
» The Director General of Ports announces the completion of berths (3) and (4) in Al-Faw Grand Port
Today at 7:40 am by Rocky
» The Council of Ministers holds its regular session headed by Al-Sudani
Today at 7:38 am by Rocky
» Parliament publishes the agenda of its session for next Thursday
Today at 7:37 am by Rocky
» A government measure to reduce "money laundering" using the buying and selling of real estate in Ira
Today at 7:35 am by Rocky
» Iraq proposes establishing a specialized council to combat corruption in Arab countries
Today at 7:32 am by Rocky
» Al-Mawarid intends to establish infrastructure and investment projects for the water sector in Iraq
Today at 7:30 am by Rocky
» The Federal Court issues a decision regarding postponing the election of the Speaker of the House of
Today at 7:28 am by Rocky
» A government meeting to discuss financing and implementation mechanisms for the Development Road Pro
Today at 5:12 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: Iraqi banks are on the right track with financial transfers
Today at 5:11 am by Rocky
» Al-Khazali: The Turkish side is still imposing its conditions on Iraq
Today at 5:08 am by Rocky
» Rights: We refuse to amend the bylaws of Parliament under political influence and desires
Today at 5:07 am by Rocky
» Nechirvan Barzani: We want to address all problems with Iran and begin a new phase of relations
Today at 5:05 am by Rocky
» Today, Iraq and Iran signed the minutes of a joint meeting related to trade
Today at 5:03 am by Rocky
» KPMG International begins auditing the revenues of telephone companies operating in Iraq
Today at 5:02 am by Rocky
» Oil: The seventh batch of equipment for the gas manufacturing project in the Nasiriyah and Gharraf f
Today at 5:01 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani assures the French ambassador of Iraq’s openness to “fruitful” partnerships
Today at 5:00 am by Rocky
» Government move to install gold screening devices at 4 airports
Today at 4:59 am by Rocky
» Sudanese Advisor: The oil sector is witnessing a rapid renaissance
Today at 4:58 am by Rocky
» Opening offices specialized in employing people with disabilities
Today at 4:57 am by Rocky
» Infrastructure and investment projects for the water sector in Iraq
Today at 4:56 am by Rocky
» Adopting the electronic system in the next census
Today at 4:55 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani chairs the first meeting to restructure the government apparatus
Today at 4:54 am by Rocky
» Business Council: Efforts to open a branch of the Chinese Bank in Iraq
Today at 4:53 am by Rocky
» Iraqi diplomacy is balanced openness
Today at 4:52 am by Rocky
» The head of the Integrity Commission told Al-Sabah: We are the people’s eyes on the government and s
Today at 4:51 am by Rocky
» Baghdad Provincial Council: The capital is facing a new urban and service phase
Today at 4:49 am by Rocky
» Customs, security and economic aspects
Today at 4:48 am by Rocky
» Central Governor: We face “increasing challenges” in complying with international laws
Today at 4:48 am by Rocky
» Payment of end-of-service benefits to employees referred to retirement for the month of May
Today at 4:46 am by Rocky
» Billions “evaporated”.. What is the truth about closing the “theft of the century” file in Diyala?
Today at 4:45 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Labor approves the extinguishment of debts owed by transgressors from the families o
Today at 4:43 am by Rocky
» How did Washington comment on Nechirvan Barzani's visit to Tehran?
Today at 4:42 am by Rocky
» The honeymoon is over and the salary crisis continues. Baghdad and Erbil exchange accusations, but s
Today at 4:41 am by Rocky
» Why has Iraq not submitted a file to stop burning gas over the past years?
Today at 4:39 am by Rocky
» A slight increase in the exchange rate...more than 146 thousand per 100 dollars
Today at 4:38 am by Rocky
» Do Iraq's debts pose a threat to the economy? Parliament answers
Today at 4:37 am by Rocky
» Agriculture explains the mechanism of implementing the calendar program and its economic gains
Today at 4:36 am by Rocky
» President Masoud Barzani meets an Iraqi parliamentary delegation
Today at 4:34 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary criticism of the government’s delay in sending the budget schedules despite the approa
Today at 4:33 am by Rocky
» A report reveals the existence of an undeclared “Iraqi-British” agreement regarding asylum seekers
Today at 4:32 am by Rocky
» Alternative energy... advanced stages of the largest solar energy station in Iraq
Today at 4:31 am by Rocky
» Its delay raised concerns... it is likely that the 2024 budget schedules will be approved today
Today at 4:30 am by Rocky
» The industry reveals the reasons why Russian companies stopped reconstructing 7 factories in Anbar
Today at 4:29 am by Rocky
» Billions evaporated.. What is the truth about closing the theft of the century file in Diyala?
Today at 4:28 am by Rocky
» Nouri Al-Maliki to the Saudi Ambassador: Iraq is open to all countries of the world
Today at 4:26 am by Rocky
» An Iraqi generation that “does not fear” America and Iran.. Nadim Al-Jabri explains his expectations
Today at 4:25 am by Rocky
» After 9 years.. the third session of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement between Iraq and A
Today at 4:22 am by Rocky
» “These are our goals.” The Turkish President talks about his visit to Iraq last month
Today at 4:21 am by Rocky
» Romanowski: The Iraqi judiciary is independent and the Federal Court seeks to consolidate democracy
Today at 4:19 am by Rocky
» Deputy: The presidency of Parliament will remain vacant until the end of the current session
Today at 4:17 am by Rocky
» Political: The Iraqi economy is threatened by American hegemony because of the coordination administ
Today at 4:16 am by Rocky
» Politician: Salem Al-Issawi will not become Speaker of Parliament
Today at 4:15 am by Rocky
» Planning reveals the mechanism for examining gold in local markets
Today at 4:14 am by Rocky
» Including railway connectivity and water shares... Iraq and Iran are discussing a number of common i
Today at 4:12 am by Rocky
» Oil is preparing to export gas oil after achieving self-sufficiency
Today at 4:11 am by Rocky
» Trade is preparing to hold a number of specialized exhibitions in Baghdad and the provinces
Today at 4:09 am by Rocky
» Erdogan: Our goal is to raise the volume of trade with Iraq to more than 20 billion dollars
Today at 4:08 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani confirms Iraq's openness to fruitful partnerships with French companies
Today at 4:07 am by Rocky
» Determining the launch date for the activities of the 48th session of the Baghdad International Fair
Today at 4:06 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani receives a delegation from the Union of Arab Banks
Today at 4:05 am by Rocky
» utube 5/3/24 MM&C Iraq Dinar Update - Expectation - Implementation - Activation - New Exchange Rat
Yesterday at 7:30 am by Rocky
» “Services” asks the Central Bank about billions of foreign banks in Iraq
Yesterday at 7:27 am by Rocky
» Central Bank: Iraqi banks still face challenges in complying with international laws and standards
Yesterday at 7:24 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary bloc: The Central Bank offers hard currency to “mafias” on a golden platter.. The Suda
Yesterday at 7:20 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi Central Auction witnesses a rise in foreign remittances to $267 million
Yesterday at 7:19 am by Rocky
» Wednesday.. The session to elect the President of the Iraqi Parliament is heading towards “Al-Issawi
Yesterday at 7:14 am by Rocky
» The Union of Arab Banks proposes 4 “important” points for Iraqi banks to meet compliance standards
Yesterday at 7:12 am by Rocky
» In the document... the Central Bank decides to return the “Al-Mal” Bank to work... in this case
Yesterday at 7:08 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi-American agreements and cooperation were the most prominent topics of Al-Araji and Romanow
Yesterday at 7:06 am by Rocky
» Al-Hakim meets a joint delegation of resolve and sovereignty and renews the call to hold a session t
Yesterday at 7:05 am by Rocky
» Nearly one billion dinars were recovered and 3 million liters of fuel intended for smuggling in Iraq
Yesterday at 7:03 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani and the European Union ambassador discuss issues of economic partnerships, civil aviation,
Yesterday at 6:59 am by Rocky
» More than 950 million dinars... petroleum products announced their recovery
Yesterday at 6:57 am by Rocky
» Forming a committee to follow up on stopping the sale of the dollar to travelers
Yesterday at 6:54 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Justice visits Al-Muthanna Governorate to discuss mechanisms for developing judicial
Yesterday at 6:52 am by Rocky
» Agriculture: Farmers who were affected by the recent rains will be compensated
Yesterday at 6:51 am by Rocky
» Al-Rasheed issues a warning regarding applying for advances and loans
Yesterday at 6:49 am by Rocky
» Al-Rafidain announces the implementation of the comprehensive banking system in its main branch
Yesterday at 5:24 am by Rocky
» Al-Rasheed warns of offices and pages claiming to promote the Salaf
Yesterday at 5:22 am by Rocky
» Adviser to the Prime Minister: There are no conflicts in the route of the Baghdad Metro
Yesterday at 5:19 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: We are keen to develop the work of the TBI Bank and address the problems it faces
Yesterday at 5:18 am by Rocky
» Agriculture explains the mechanism of implementing the calendar program and its economic gains
Yesterday at 5:17 am by Rocky
» “The shocks have changed.” The Governor of the Central Bank explains the impact of the openness of I
Yesterday at 5:16 am by Rocky
» The President of the Association of Private Banks sends an “important” invitation to the Central Ban
Yesterday at 5:15 am by Rocky
» Al-Alaq: The Iraqi banking sector has witnessed significant qualitative developments in response to
Yesterday at 5:12 am by Rocky
» On behalf of Al-Sudani, the Minister of Planning sponsors the signing ceremony of a memorandum of un
Yesterday at 5:11 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi Travel Companies Association participates in the Arab Travel Market Exhibition
Yesterday at 5:10 am by Rocky