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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    Oil, gas and wheat... How will the Russian-Ukrainian war affect Iraq?

    Rocky
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    Oil, gas and wheat... How will the Russian-Ukrainian war affect Iraq? Empty Oil, gas and wheat... How will the Russian-Ukrainian war affect Iraq?

    Post by Rocky Sat 26 Feb 2022, 5:11 am

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    Oil, gas and wheat... How will the Russian-Ukrainian war affect Iraq?
    February 25 202
    Ultra Iraq - Editorial Team
    The effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war are not limited to the areas in eastern Europe, but will extend politically and economically “with a greater impact” to most countries of the world, in addition to the presence of several elements in these two countries that make the war somewhat influential in Iraq directly.
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    Economists believe that the sanctions will deprive Europe of 4 million barrels of crude oil and its products per day
    These elements are represented by what Iraq needs to import of materials that these two countries are the most exporting countries to, as well as what Iraq possesses of materials that it can export to fill the possible shortage in the global market of Russian or Ukrainian supply.
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    While Russia and Ukraine have the production and export capacity of a long list of energy, food and mineral products, what directly concerns Iraq is the possible decline in wheat, gas and oil supplies.
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    It is expected that broad economic sanctions will be imposed on Russia as a result of its entry into Ukraine, and according to these sanctions, energy expert and economic researcher Bilal Khalifa indicated in an interview with "Ultra Iraq", that "the sanctions will lead to depriving Europe of 4 million barrels of crude oil and its products per day, and depriving it as well." of 104 billion cubic meters of gas annually, which is approximately a third of Europe's need of gas, as well as depriving the world of 100 million tons of wheat, which is equivalent to about 13% of the world's need.
    Bread, poultry and meat prices may rise in Iraq
    In 2019, 25% of the wheat exported globally came [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] . Russia occupies the third place in the world in wheat production, while Ukraine occupies the eighth place, and most of the wheat supplies in some Middle Eastern countries come from Russia and Ukraine.
    These data coincide with the imminent end of the wheat stockpile in Iraq and the waiting for the new marketing season, which begins in April of each year. The current season witnessed a shortage of about half a million tons of wheat due to the decline in production due to the scarcity of water and rain during the last season.
    Iraq has reduced the cultivated areas within the current winter plan by 50%, which means that the area for which water has been provided is only 2.5 million dunams, and Iraq may not produce from it only two million tons or less of wheat, as this indicates its need to import 2.5 million tons as it consumes Iraq 4.5 million tons of wheat annually.
    The effects of the rains and torrents that Iraq witnessed in the past months are still not clear, and whether the rains will raise the production of wheat in the “destructive” areas, which are grown without providing them with water and remain hostage to rain, and it is expected that production will rise by an additional million tons of permaculture, For this season, Iraq will produce only about 3 million tons, leaving it to need to import an additional 1.5 million tons.
    As a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the world is expected to witness a major wheat crisis, due to supply disruptions or Russia being affected by US-European sanctions that prevent it from exporting wheat. Indeed , wheat prices [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] to the highest level in 9 years.
    The rise in wheat prices will make Iraq forced to put pressure on its upcoming budget to provide sufficient funds to import wheat. In addition, the rise in prices will affect bread and food in bakeries and bakeries as a result of its dependence on imported flour, and this rise may even extend to all materials that Iraq needs to import, such as corn. Soy is used as feed for poultry and animals, which will lead to an increase in poultry prices in the Iraqi market as well.
    Global pressure on gas... Iraq's electricity is in danger
    It is known that Iraq has a deficit of more than 60% between its gas production and its consumer needs, as Iraq invests 1,500 bottles per day of gas to operate its power stations, while it imports 1,700 milligrams per day from Iran, which has been significantly reduced during the past months.
    While gas prices in Europe have already begun to rise [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] , it is expected that the demand for gas from other sources will increase, which may lead to higher prices globally due to increased demand, and Iran may export gas to Europe to compensate for the Russian shortage, according to experts in The economy stressed that if Iran continues to export to Iraq, the prices will be double, and thus more pressure on the upcoming Iraqi budget, and if Iraq is unable to provide gas, this means that the electrical supply during the next summer will be at its worst, as Iraq’s production of Electricity is currently only 14,000 megawatts, at a time when it [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] to make the equipment average, while the real need in Iraq is estimated at 35,000 megawatts, according to the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity.
    Oil .. Does Iraq benefit?
    Oil is the only substance whose supplies are expected to be affected globally by the war, and Iraq does not have a deficit with it, which raises questions whether Iraq will benefit at least by compensating for the shortage in potential oil supplies globally by raising its production.
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    If Iraq raises its oil production by 300,000 barrels per day and exports them according to the current prices, this means that it will get about 27 million dollars per day.
    And energy expert Bilal Khalifa said in an interview with "Ultra Iraq", "If sanctions are imposed on Russia, the supply shortage will be about 4 million barrels of oil per day, and this can be solved by putting pressure on OPEC and others by increasing current production to compensate for Russia's share, but it It will be negative for Europe in any case, explaining that "the oil coming to Europe from any part of the world except Russia will be more expensive because of transportation and because Europe takes Russian oil through pipelines."
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    And in the event that OPEC raises its oil production by at least 3 million barrels per day to fill the shortage of Russian oil, it is possible that Iraq’s share will be about 300,000 barrels per day, which is a significant increase in production, as Iraq’s current share of raising production is equivalent to 10% of production The total of the "OPEC +" countries, while OPEC + is currently raising its production by 400,000 barrels per day, Iraq's share is approximately 44,000 barrels per day. 
     According to the current prices, raising Iraq's production by 300,000 barrels per day and exporting it means it will get about $27 million per day, or nearly $1 billion per month.
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