After its "incapacitating" conditions for resuming oil exports...has Iraq become the "weakest" pole in front of Turkey? - Urgent
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Baghdad today - Baghdad
After Turkey imposed conditions that some described as “incapacitating” to resume oil exports with Iraq, and the latter’s commitment to “OPEC +” restrictions by reducing its production share, will Iraq be the “weakest” pole in front of Turkey in the oil file?
Turkish "incapacitating" terms
Informed sources indicate that Turkey imposed "incapacitating" conditions on Iraq to resume the work of the Iraqi-Turkish pipeline, through the port of Ceyhan.
While specialists in economic affairs explained, “The conditions included stopping the application of the clearing agreement between Iraqi oil and Iranian gas, because Turkey and Kurdistan have an agreement on oil for a period of 50 years, and compensation was paid in exchange for resuming the region’s oil exports, and the withdrawal of the second lawsuit by Baghdad at the International Court of Arbitration.” For compensation for the period 2018-2022, and to continue to give Turkey a discount of $13 from the price of each barrel of crude oil exported from the region.
The specialists pointed out that "the conditions also included the continuation of paying transportation fees to the Turkish company BOTAS in the amount of 7 dollars for each barrel of crude oil exported through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, and that Iraq bear the cost of repairing the Iraqi-Turkish pipeline."
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Iraq's commitment to "OPEC +" restrictions
"After Iraq's commitment to OPEC + restrictions, its production share decreased from 4.650 million barrels per day to 4.220 million barrels, of which it currently exports 3.444 million barrels per day and internally consumes 780 thousand barrels per day," economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi explains.
And Al-Marsoumi indicated, "It is possible for Iraqi oil exports to rise to the level of oil exports estimated in the 2023 budget, which amounts to 4.5 million barrels. This means that re-exporting Kurdistan's oil through the Turkish port of Ceyhan will require reducing Iraq's oil exports by sea to about 4 million barrels per day."
Iraq, Turkey and the "weakest" pole
And the economist says that "Iraq will not get any increase in its oil revenues, just as it is after signing an undersea pipeline project worth $417 million, which will increase export capacity to the south by half a million barrels per day next year."
Al-Marsoumi explains, "This means reducing the need to re-work the Iraqi-Turkish pipeline, which will harm the Turkish side, which will lose traffic fees that exceed one billion dollars annually, and undermine Turkey's endeavors, which seeks to be a safe and reliable passage for oil and gas pipelines in particular." And it is one of the signatories to the Energy Regulation Agreement, in which the subject of oil and gas pipelines is the most important component and arbitration regarding it.
And he stresses that "therefore, Iraq is not in a position of weakness in this matter, and it should not make major concessions, because Turkey is the party most affected by stopping the export of Iraqi oil through it."
Smuggling oil into Türkiye
Earlier, the energy advisor in the Information Office of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Bahjat Ahmed, accused the Kurdistan Democratic Party of smuggling the oil of the Kurdistan region .
Ahmed told "Baghdad Today", that "the KDP wants to continue not to resume exporting the region's oil at the present time, and does not press in this regard, as it smuggles on a daily basis about 200 thousand barrels of oil through trucks . "
He added, "The Democratic Party smuggles 200,000 barrels per day via trucks to Turkey, from various fields, and work has been resumed with them, and these revenues do not enter the region's treasury at all, and the Iraqi government is aware of this matter."
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