KTFA Members Sunday Morning 1-13-19 "2019 Looks Good"

by **rocky** Tue 15 Jan 2019, 4:43 am

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Post n°1

KTFA Members Sunday Morning 1-13-19 "2019 Looks Good"

by rocky Tue 15 Jan 2019, 4:43 am

[size=24]KTFA Members Sunday Morning 1-13-19 "2019 Looks Good"

1/13/2019
Go to Comments [/size]

KTFA:

Ol_Lar:  The revaluation of the Iraqi dinar is ready to be implemented by the country's Central Bank; however, the Parliamentary Economic and Investment Commission has decided to postpone the revaluation to 2019.

The plan is to eliminate zeros from the value of the Iraqi currency, allowing the dinar to gain value on the global market.

With the anticipation of the Iraqi dinar revaluation, millions of dinars have been bought all over the world by investors. Those investors hope that the revaluation of the dinar will increase the value of the currency, which would make all of their dinars worth significantly more than when they bought them. However, the revaluation continues to get postponed and is set for 2019 as the country faces more pressing political issues.  LINK

Frank26: WELL DONE OL LAR ………………………

DELTA: THIS ARTICLE IS FROM 08/16/2017...…...2019 IT'S ………..GOOD JOB OL-LAR
....

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David12001: Iraqi Dinar revaluation postponed by Central Bank for 5 years says MP Noura al-Bajari

by Amre Sarhan Oct 29, 2014, 11:54 pm

In an interview with IraqiNews.com al-Bajari said “The policy to delete zeros from the Iraqi currency is ready to be executed by the Central Bank, however, its implementation will be delayed by 5 years on the basis of the extreme security and political situation of the country.”

Al-Bajari said that the head of the Central Bank of Iraq had previously said that this policy from parliament was accepted and that the zeros will be deleted from the Iraqi currency in the next 5 years.

https://www.iraqinews.com/features/iraqi-dinars-project-postponed-5-years-says-central-bank/

Jay: When you read both of these and think of where we are, 2019 looks good IMO.

MilitiaMan: Good deal.. WS told us back years ago that the process on the second set of books takes time. I believe there is data to support that from the imf. Didn’t WS suggest that time of the four year process to be 01/01/2018? I think so. So if that is the case which, I believe to be supportive being his track record is very good. The. One more year equates to ? Any time now! Imo - MM

Iggy: 5years ago we scoffed (called it smoke) at the article that said we would be waiting 5 more years...time flys while learning but, here we are...GET READY!!!

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Don961:  Rafidain Bank renews its call to the official departments to settle salaries

BAGHDAD - The Rafidain Bank on Saturday renewed its call to ministries and state departments to settle the salaries of its employees at the bank and to benefit from the financial facilities provided by the bank.

"The process of settling the salaries of state employees is through the issuance of electronic payment tools through which the employee is given his salary electronically away from the paper deal," he said, adding that "this step benefits the employee through which the banking facilities are made." Finished    link

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Samson:  Parliamentary finance seeks to stop external borrowing in the budget of 2019

13th January2019

The Finance Committee in the House of Representatives, on Sunday, sought to stop foreign borrowing in the budget of 2019, and avoid dumping the Iraqi economy in the long and short term external debt.

"We have a vision in the Finance Committee that continuing the external borrowing in 2019 is a big mistake that will be paid for by future generations. There is no justification for borrowing about $ 5 billion," said Hoshyar Abdullah, a member of the committee.

Iraq has a good cash reserve, with other mechanisms that can be used as an alternative to borrowing, such as voluntary savings and revitalization of government banks by raising interest rates for individuals and companies, seeking to increase domestic production and restricting imports of locally available products, Of the solutions followed Such conditions are experienced by countries with economies similar to the Iraqi economy."

Abdullah explained that "long-term and short-term foreign loans have high benefits, and what was borrowed during the previous years is a serious strategic error," stressing that "the suspension of foreign loans in 2019 is a national step requires the support and support of the House of Representatives."   LINK

KBC123: Well now, wouldn't an RI, followed by an RV, followed by an increase in the price of oil just "fit the bill"????  (smile)

Samson: 27 trillion dinars Iraqi budget deficit

13th January, 2019

Iraqi Parliamentary Financial Commission announced that the deficit in the
national budget will reach 27 trillion dinars, according to calculating oil prices at 56 dollars.
Member of the Commission Siham al-Uqaili pointed that it is possible that this figure will be decreased if the oil prices were increased this year.

She added that 2019 budget included paying some debts made by the previous governments from international banks.      LINK

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Don961:  Re-opening the oldest street in Baghdad after being closed for 15 years

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The Iraqi secretariat announced on Saturday the lifting of concrete barriers and the opening of the alley adjacent to the central bank in central Baghdad, one of the oldest streets and alleys of Baghdad

The Secretariat added that "the lifting of the road and the opening of the alley adjacent to the Central Bank and to Khan Murjan and Al-Samawal Street within Rasheed Street," pointing to "a campaign to raise the waste collected as a result of the closure of the alley since 2003." Finished    link

Samson:  Zobaie: Halabousi is unable to form commissions and arrest warrants for senior officials

2019/1/12 23:42

MP from the Alliance for Reform and Reconstruction Talal Khudair Zobaie, that the Speaker of the House of Representatives Mohamed Halbusi "unable to form parliamentary committees," while revealing in numbers the number of arrest warrants for senior officials.

Al-Zobaie told the Euphrates (Euphrates) that "delaying the formation of parliamentary committees beats a very dangerous bell because the ability of the Presidency of the Council of Representatives to form committees, so that the President of the Council Mohammed Halbusi tries to arrange the committees in the way he wants."

"Any former minister can not be the head of any parliamentary committee. We want to build a state of institutions and any delay in any subject where bargaining takes place," he said. "Khalafi is not personally with Halaboussi in the way he came and we have reservations about Halabousi."

"We have handed over all files of integrity to corruption to the judiciary and the prosecutor, so that 18 ministers and the degree of minister of arrest warrants and 7 agents and now 4 degree minister in prison and directors 267 general manager."

He added that "there are leaks on the nomination of Ali al-Saghri to assume the functions of the Presidency of the Integrity Committee, Ahmed Kanani of the Investment Committee and Reipower to the Foreign Affairs Committee and Qutaiba Jubouri to the Health Committee,"  He said that "information confirms that the section of the names seized and signatures of Maliki and Amiri and dagger them Ali al-Sijeri candidate for the presidency of the Integrity Committee , But we objected to the need to rearrange the committees and be two sections for construction and repair."

He added that "the reform nominated Sabah al-Saadi as the head of the Integrity Commission and I expect that from outside these people to head the Integrity Commission and there are deputies have a high efficiency deserve the position and that the Presidency of the Integrity Committee will be in accordance with the vision of the building and so far did not resolve the final committees and asked to rearrange them because they arranged in a deception."    LINK

by **rocky** Tue 15 Jan 2019, 4:45 am

rocky

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Post n°2

MilitiaMan and KTFA Members Sunday Evening 1-13-19

by rocky Tue 15 Jan 2019, 4:45 am

[size=24]MilitiaMan and KTFA Members Sunday Evening 1-13-19

1/13/2019
Go to Comments [/size]

KTFA:

MilitiaMan: If I may add that this being in print now, is actually something in of it self. ( see article below) It gives out that an approach to the reality of the project is real and is taken seriously all over the world.

They in one breathe say they are ready, yet they say they have postponed it to 2019.. lol
Well we know it is 2019 now, we know they have technically a fully seated GOI, as noted by many sources i.e., Trump, Pence, Perry, Nasuari, the 3 presidents, etc..

They clearly have that per their opinions, yet, they clearly choose to deny the Citizens the names of the final 2-3 ministers for what appears to be a propaganda stunt in which they are being called out for even as of today.

We all know contracts have been in motion and there are more to come, even of recent per articles we have that to be the case through JPMC
.
The ICC has also confirmed that wire transferring Dinars is ready to go. So, once they feel they can go live, they will and the signatories of parliament on the ministers will be history.. All in my opinion.. ~ MM
....

Ol-Lar: The revaluation of the Iraqi dinar is ready to be implemented by the country's Central Bank; however, the Parliamentary Economic and Investment Commission has decided to postpone the revaluation to 2019. The plan is to eliminate zeros from the value of the Iraqi currency, allowing the dinar to gain value on the global market.

With the anticipation of the Iraqi dinar revaluation, millions of dinars have been bought all over the world by investors. Those investors hope that the revaluation of the dinar will increase the value of the currency, which would make all of their dinars worth significantly more than when they bought them. However, the revaluation continues to get postponed and is set for 2019 as the country faces more pressing political issues.

https://www.reference.com/business-finance/iraqi-dinar-revalued-32bcb8d1dd4186c0?fbclid=IwAR1UVZ-aFM6CM2-NwmW9uHfL27c6EI15rfRSuXTWKdVvc-MqO-EFYir8OBI

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MilitiaMan: With the citizens being told imo that they are going to get purchase power and were expecting it already realize that their due is in the hands of ministers not getting seated yet, they'll start to putting pressure on and this article is the sort of thing that will I hope put a fire under their backsides to name the ministries.

Even Sadr is pointing fingers now and not to mention he wants the citizens to get what they deserve. And the link below supports that they know now who is holding things up if there is a hold up or not.

Word on the street is that they were expecting this around the 4th or 5th. ~ imo ~ MM

Samson:  A member of parliamentary integrity threatens ministers

2019/1/13 9:21

A member of the Integrity Committee of Parliament, ministers in the government of Adel Abdul Mahdi threatened this action. "While we value every national effort to serve this oppressed people, we would like to inform the ministers, the undersecretaries of the ministries and the directors-general that the members of the House of Representatives are the sons of this people, who are represented by him and elected," said Yusuf al-Kalabi in a statement received by the Euphrates News Agency.

Before them, so their offices and homes and phones are open to receive citizens and their complaints and demands, which in turn we deliver them."  "But unfortunately and shamefully, the most ministers do not establish a clear mechanism for communication between deputies and ministers in order to meet people's needs."  "We would like to inform you and warn you that your posts, the people, are the ones who gave them to you to serve as ministers and to develop clear strategies for the advancement of this country, not to sit in ivory towers and put a veil between you and the people," he said.

He called member of the Parliamentary Integrity Ministers and Deputy Ministers and Directors General to "serve the people and get off the field or you will not prolong your presence in these ministries who voted for you and give you the confidence able to withdraw, this is the voice of the people we represent .. Oh God, I have reached, O God, I testify."   LINK

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Hoosier Girl: So, are you looking for this in EARLY 2019, MID 2019, LATE 2019... I'm just wondering how we judge WHEN in 2019. I known all about PK (public knowledge)   but from pictures I've seen the people of Iraq in many places have been doing pretty nicely for several years. Hard to determine things when we have such variety of articles, events, pictures, what they tell us they are doing, what they are actually doing... Hmmm...

MilitiaMan: I believe this article is a sign, an admission of them doing what we have been told was a scam. I is not one (Thank you very much Wells Fargo!) and they are ready to implement now with all the signs they have shown us over the last year.

We know contracts have time stamps.. T & T were said to be ready at a moments notice to be applied. We see a very large trading partner in country this week talking directly about money exchange. So, as for me the signs I see are not mid or late, by at least what I see.

There are fireflies on the ground over there that suggest that the citizens have been told they are getting a gift from GOD, they very well may have been placated for now, but, how long they will not get antsy is anyone's guess.

Lets not forget that there was an article 01/02/2018 talking about linking the IQD with a basket of currencies (They let that cat out of the bag and big time).

The stir was the authority was saying hold on a minute.. Lets not link to lower value currencies!! Thus, it may have been like them being told.. Hold on citizens. Nothing has changed as far as getting your purchase power, it is that we are going to get you more if we use an stronger basket..

Thus, they bought more time? We shall see if it plays out like that. imo ~ MM

Samson: After the closure lasted for years to end the siege Casts Central Bank of Iraq in central Baghdad

13th January, 2019

Baghdad Municipality on Saturday raised the concrete blocks that surround the building of the Central Bank of Iraq in Al-Rashid Street in downtown Baghdad

A statement issued by the Secretariat said today that it has also opened the alley adjacent to the Central Bank, which leads to Khan Murjan and Al-Samawil Street within Al-Rashid Street

The statement noted that the Secretariat launched a campaign to lift the accumulated waste due to the closure of the alley since 2003   LINK

Militiaman: Well well more on the matter.. Take down the barriers is a sign of stability and security. Not to mention one that suggests they can be proud again of their national wealth and well being. Even the King of Jordan is coming to town. ~ MM

MilitiaMan: Getter done!! ~ MM

""The House of Representatives has completed all amendments to the budget law and is ready to put it next week and pass the law," Al-Hamidi said in a statement.

Samson:  Al-Hamidi: House of Representatives will pass the budget during the next week

13th January, 2019

The MP confirmed the alliance of the Fatah Charter Hamdi, Sunday, the House of Representatives' vote on the budget during the next week, noting that the province of Basra called for the guarantee of rights in the law.

"The House of Representatives has completed all amendments to the budget law and is ready to put it next week and pass the law," Al-Hamidi said in a statement.

"The financial budget is non-investment and does not meet ambitions and was formulated in an exceptional way to avoid the financial crisis during the current year due to the decline in oil prices."

She added that "the demands of representatives of Basra in the budget is to ensure conservation rights of petrodollar amounts as well as the allocation of 50% of the revenues of the border crossings and the end of collection in hospitals and the health sector in full."   LINK

KingofMelz: SO IMO THIS MEANS IT WILL BE THIS WEEK! OR ELSE SADAR WILL RELEASE HIS FURY I AM SURE……..YOU ALL HEAR THAT PARLIAMENT!!

MilitiaMan: No kidding right.. I like Sadr when he takes his steroids... lol ~ MM

by **rocky** Tue 15 Jan 2019, 4:46 am

rocky

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Post n°3

KTFA Members Monday PM 1-14-19 "Twinning and the Paris Club"

by rocky Tue 15 Jan 2019, 4:46 am

[size=24]KTFA Members Monday PM 1-14-19 "Twinning and the Paris Club"

1/14/2019
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KTFA:

Samson: Abdel-Mahdi offers French Foreign Minister a proposal to study twinning between Paris and Baghdad

2019/1/14 13:31

The Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, the French Foreign Minister that France is a friend of Iraq and relations with them is very important for its position and strong role and distinguished, while presented a proposal to study twinning between Paris and Baghdad.

"We look forward to a greater contribution, presence and cooperation in the fields of economy, services, culture and education in continuation of France's position on Iraq's side in its war against Daqash," he said, quoting a statement issued by his office. And communicate on support for security and stability in the region."
....

He added that "the democratic experience in Iraq is strengthened and achieved progress for the benefit of all Iraqis, and that a supporter is not an Iraqi industry but a backward and extremist thinking industry, calling for building balances that support moderation, moderation and civic values. He stressed his keenness to develop partnership relations with France in the fight against terrorism and construction projects, He also expressed full readiness to overcome obstacles and legacies."

The Prime Minister thanked France's position on the cancellation of debts owed by Iraq through the Paris Club.

The Prime Minister put forward a proposal for a twinning study between the cities of Paris and Baghdad, and the French side welcomed it and promised to study it.

"We have come to declare our full support for Iraq and its government and to express France's will to expand relations with Iraq, and we will continue to stand by Iraq in building after our supporting position in defeating the support and support of Iraqi forces," he said.

He added that "Iraq has become a key player in stability and its policy is based on the exclusion of conflicts and the preservation of sovereignty and national decision, and France will go forward with the partnership and cooperation with Iraq and support the Iraqi government, which leads Iraq successfully," referring to "an upcoming visit to French President Macaron to Baghdad to confirm support And develop the friendly relations of cooperation and partnership between the two countries."   LINK

Doodlebug: FRANKIE FRANKIE... you told us so!

Frank26: AND ON TONIGHT'S M CC ..................…. TELL YOU MORE …

MilitiaMan:  The above can be referenced back in Nov 27th post #12 about french contracts in the coming months. I have seen data to support contract money has been paid into the UK and the "Baroness Nicholson" was in part to the payments in the UK ($billions).

If we look at the theme in the news today and of late, it is all about contracts. We have been told contracts are being paid. Also at 1:1. We have been told more contracts will be public and to watch close.

Well, if your seeing the meetings with USA, Jordan, UAE, SA, Turkey, etc., it is easy to see the foundation was laid months ago. Just look at this line up of companies, etc below. Keep in mind the Iraqi Trade Bank singed a deal with GE for power in Nov 27th real close, as well and was said to be more in the coming months.

Today, there is another article supporting the funds through the World bank from the KW conference in the billions is activated or in place and ready to go.

This is seriously the showing of the results from last year. The highest of Lands showing up in Iraq.. All about the money.. They know as well as we do.. It is going to flow! imo ~ MM "

The US Chamber of Commerce has since told us this about on their recent meetings~ MM:

KingofMLEZ: Sorry to sound dumb but i don't remember what is TWINNING???

Chppy86:  A process where banks exchange information and trade wires, exchanges transaction back and forth to ensure they communicate and processes, transactions are on the same page as the other. IMO

MilitiaMan:  Here is a report on the matter. It also is known as mirroring. "" ~ MM
http://siteresources.worldbank.....G04-85.pdf

Iggy: The Paris Club is an informal group of official creditors whose role is to find coordinated and sustainable solutions to the payment difficulties experienced by debtor countries. As debtor countries undertake reforms to stabilize and restore their macroeconomic and financial situation, Paris Club creditors provide an appropriate debt treatment.

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Clare: Daytrader brought this link in chat...

http://siteresources.worldbank.....G04-85.pdf

Definitions and Practices

Twinning is perceived and practiced by aid organizations in a variety of ways. The World Bank, for example, defines twinning as a “process that pairs an organizational entity in a developing country with a similar but more mature entity in another country,” and recognizes the method as one of its four primary technical assistance delivery modes, along with long-term advisors, short-term advisors, and training.

The Bank uses twinning to transfer relevant operational knowledge between two organizations similar in function and structure. The European Community (EC) has employed numerous twinning projects since 1998 to facilitate the accession process for countries that wish to join the European Union (EU). Twinning takes the form of the secondment of EU experts for over a year, with a combination of other arrangements such as short-term missions, training, and specific technical services (computer and translation).

Main Features and Issues of Twinning

Distinctive features of twinning arrangements are that they:

(a) are an institution-to institution relationship, based on partnership between two organizations;

(b) achieve sustainable organizational capacity building;

(c) are based on long-term cooperation that continues after project completion;

(d) are highly flexible and can change according to need;

(e) use various modes of activity to ensure sustainability; and

(f) carry a notion of learning.

Key issues to consider when twinning is employed are:

(a) the selection of appropriate partners; and

(b) the design of the arrangement and relationship.

Twinning is more likely to be successful when the following elements exist:

(a) commitment of the parties;

(b) a high level of competence and flexibility on behalf of the supplier;

(c) feasibility of designated tasks;

(d) periodic follow-ups after project completion; and

(e) positive work relationships.

More reading:
https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/sites/near/files/twinning-manual-revision-2017-final-updated-09-08.pdf

by **rocky** Tue 15 Jan 2019, 4:49 am

rocky

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Post n°4

Sunkissed and KTFA Members "Back Wall Date-Feb. 2?"

by rocky Tue 15 Jan 2019, 4:49 am

Sunkissed and KTFA Members "Back Wall Date-Feb. 2?"

1/14/2019
Go to Comments

KTFA:

Sunkissed: BF Samson Post #32 01-10-19 (see below)

I have highlighted the sections that apply to my comment below, because I think we didn't really see the significance of this article on first blush. Also, if you have read MM post 202 - (see below) there is some overlay in this article with his compilation.

In my opinion, the TIMING of this article is utterly FANTASTIC!

Did you all see this article gives us the DROP DEAD DATE? (imo)

FEBRUARY 02, 2019

1). JORDAN IS RACING AGAINST TIME.

why?

Well... imo... it looks like...

2). February 02, 2019 is a deadline date to IMPLEMENTATION. For what??
....

3). Remember that December 29-30 meeting when many contracts were signed?

Looks like Jordan signed some "old" deals that were "renewed" - I suppose we would use the word "updated" (to reflect a new rate? a more competitive price, since so many contractors are FLOODING into Iraq?)

So... there's the PRESSURE! Contracts were signed on December 29-30 and to be IMPLEMENTED BY FEBRUARY 02, 2019!

Then we need to ask, why were they updated? Looks like it's because Jordan's bid was too high as Iraq didn't think they were competitive enough -- because their manufacturing is controlled by the government, and they want their share of the profits!!

Well... sharpen your pencil Jordan! And... Iraq isn't dependent any longer, so Jordan has to improve their quality too if they're going to be doing significant trade with Iraq.

But -- Jordan wants a guarantee for trade (like in the old days). Ha! They (Jordan) don't want to have to compete, because with their government influence taking part of the profit, they can't trade competitively against other countries all vying for a piece of the pie!

So, Jordan attempts a "work-around:" Build a factory & warehouse on the border with Iraq to reduce shipping costs. Plus, they need to be exempt from Taxes and Tariffs if they are going to compete with everyone else -- not to mention retool their production to improve their quality of goods! WOW. Iraq is calling the shots!!! They are not used to this for sure.

All of this tells us that Iraq has evolved, and now they can be selective in who they trade with and the quality of goods they provide for their citizens! Unless Jordan can upgrade her energy sector, and quality of goods, it doesn't look very promising that they will regain their position as a major trade partner with Iraq, save for the area of minerals such as phosphorus, et al.

BUT HERE'S THE RUB:

After all the haggling and demands that Iraq has served up to Jordan... the bottom line actually rests with Iraq:

THEY MUST HAVE PURCHASING POWER to be able to absorb the MASSIVE QUANTITIES of goods, minerals, etc., coming INTO Iraq!!

Ball is DEFINITELY in Iraq's court!

Promises were made in the BEGINNING of 2018!! (Respect the first quarter!!! Sound familiar?? -- Walkingstick was accurate!)

And now, the longer they wait, the more difficult, if not impossible it will be for Jordan to perform in time!!! --- BUT....

in order to perform on their contract... Iraq MUST FIRST HAVE PURCHASING POWER!!!
Iraq HAS TO BE READY AND ABLE TO PAY THEM!!!

Therefore, February 02, 2019, appears to be the back-wall, Drop Dead Date, "to be an exquisite mutual-beneficial relationship."

If February 02, 2019 is the Drop Dead Date, then we are looking at Feb 02 - 04 (Monday) for the IQD to go live.

However... imo.... it certainly could go before that date!!

~ Sunkissed

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Samson: JORDAN IN RACE AGAINST TIME TO RE-PENETRATE IRAQI MARKET AS REGIONAL COMPETITORS SCRAMBLE FOR FOOTHOLDS

Economists, exporters weigh in on historic Jordan-Iraq deals to rejuvenate trade, voice concerns about competitiveness of exports

9th January,2019

The governments of Jordan and Iraq, two weeks ago, concluded talks to facilitate economic, trade and power cooperation and development, including three major trade agreements, aside from the memorandum of understanding on power linkage.

According to Prime Minister Omar Razzaz, two of those trade accords will reflect positively on Jordanian exports to Iraq within the upcoming months, mainly the restoration of custom exemptions for Jordanian goods that do not compete with Iraqi products and the door-to-door freight transport agreement. It will “substitute the back-to-back freight shipping mechanism, which is inefficient, both in terms of cost and time wasted”, the premier explained to the reporters he met on the sidelines of his visit to Iraq. Entailed in these new trade measures are new allowances to ease visa protocols for freight transport through the Karameh-Turaibil Border Crossing, he added.

Iraqi Minister of Industry and Minerals Saleh Jubouri also sounded hopeful when he told The Jordan Times that he expected Jordanian exports to Iraq to double in 2019. Notably, exports to Iraq dropped from nearly JD883.1 million in 2013 to around JD367.7 million in 2017, followed by a 36 per cent increase in July 2018, compared with the same month in 2017. Nonetheless, “the Iraqi market is overrun by Turkish products, as well as Iranian exports, though to a lesser extent”, Jubouri warned.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are now exporting to Iraq, a source with the direct foreign investments office at the Jordanian Embassy in Baghdad told The Jordan Times. Jordan is not going to be without competition in its pursuit of a slice in the Iraq reconstruction project, Razzaz acknowledged. However, head of the Direct Investment Department at the Jordanian Embassy in Baghdad Riyad Ababneh argued that “Iraqi consumers have confidence in Jordanian products, which is an advantage for [our] exports over competitors’”.

Against reassurances by Iraqi Ambassador to Jordan Safia Al Suhail on the outstanding trade relationship between Iraq and Jordan and the promises of exempting Jordanian exports, Jubouri subtly reaffirmed that the issue of costs may very well prove to be a challenge for Jordanian exporters to secure a significant share of the Iraq market. To that, Razzaz promised that the industrial estate agreed to be built on the border during the talks, over an area of 24 square kilometres, would drastically cut costs for exports and boost bilateral trade ties between the two countries.

Additionally, Razzaz and his Iraqi counterpart, Adel Abdul Mahdi, announced work was underway to settle Iraqi debts to Jordanian enterprises and claims dating back to the era of the trade protocol before the occupation of Iraq in 2003. Still, some industrialists and exporters, as well as economists, remain sceptical of the practical outcomes of all these pledges, despite the fixed timeline set by both governments for the implementation of these agreements, to launch on February 2, according to the joint statement issued at the conclusion of December 29-30 visit, last year.

High expectations

Most of the deals signed are old agreements, merely renewed, economist Mazin Marji highlighted. “None of it is bad for business. Some will help, yes, but in reality I think restoring the scale of Jordanian exports to 2013 levels, before the border closure, is not doable within a year, or two for that matter. In three years, maybe,” he argued, “provided that the current political, security and other variables do not change, let alone restoring the volume of exports to pre-occupation levels”.

Economist Mufleh Akel agreed. “The [Iraqi] minister’s expectations are a little too optimistic,” he said.

Talking about restoring the glorious days of exportation to Iraq, however, is an entirely different story, according to the economist. “The truth is that the pre-occupation Iraqi authorities imposed Jordanian products on the [Iraqi] market, granting [our] exporters an absolute advantage, especially under the oil-for-food programme, which was an internationally endorsed agenda. We need not forget that the Iraqi leadership was willing to overlook the shortcoming quality of our exported goods in favour of supporting Jordan,” Marji said “This is no longer the case.”

Jordan does not any more have an absolute advantage over other competitors in the Iraqi market. “We need to look to our comparative, relative advantage and capitalise on it, that is if indeed we wish to restore our share of the Iraqi market,” he added.

One of the issues facing the Jordanian exports economy, Marji explained, is that the private sector wants the government to secure the market share for their exports, instead of competing for it. “This is not going to happen. Competition over Iraq is intense,” he added. “Exemptions for Jordanian goods will help boost exports, but the whole door-to-door, instead of back-to-back freight shipping arrangement, is merely a technicality. Combined, they probably will make a difference, but ever so slightly. For one, Jordanian commodities are not competitive in terms of quality or price. Two: We do not produce enough of the products that actually do have a market in Iraq.”

Noteworthy is the fact that the exemptions decision is not a new one, said financial economist, head of Al Ghad's business department and columnist, Yousef Damra. “Jordan used to export more than 500 products exempt of custom duties and fees to Iraq. This agreement cuts the list of exempt Jordanian exports to a little over 360 products,” he noted.
Vice Chairman of Petra Engineering Industries Company and Jordanian Exports Association President Omar Abu Wishah believes otherwise, namely, that the door-to-door arrangement will increase the operational capacity of the land shipping sector.

In regards to boosting exportation to Iraq, he also believes it can be done in a year’s time. “In fact, with the exemptions, and if we really play fair-game with our competitors, it is possible that Jordan doubles it exports to Iraq within 2019,” he said. His position is that there are a number of quality Jordanian products that the Iraqi market can absorb, provided that costs are cut to boost competitiveness, and that Jordanian exports can be set to rival even Turkish producers.

It is not that the Jordanian private sector is relying on the government to secure a share in the Iraqi market for them, he said, but rather “that much of the costs of producing and exporting to Iraq are controlled by government regulation and policy. The government has a part to do in this”. “Authorities need to facilitate exportation to Iraq and cut costs, which include power and transportation costs,” he said.

If the costs of manufacturing, production and transport are not optimised to boost exporter profitability, the quality of the products in export will be questionable and the overall operation may not be feasible for exporters to engage, he argued. “This is aside to the issue of taxation under the new Income Tax Law. The government has to compensate for these increased costs, all of them, for businesses to retain a level of profitability that would allow them to export with ease,” Abu Wishah underlined.

Without such exemptions, facilities and privileges, he insisted, Jordan will never be able to compete with Turkey, Iran, the US or the Saudis and Emiratis in Iraq.

Akel agrees that the door-to-door mechanism will help boost the profitability of exportation for Jordanian producers, but argues that exports lack competitiveness as well. “Aside from the absolute economic overlord in Iraq, [the] US, Jordan is up against the Iranians and the Turks, in a race for the Iraqi market. We are on relatively good terms with the Iranians, who have political leverage in Iraq to funnel their products, and the price offering to back its competitive advantage. The Turks, on the other hand, have the combined advantage of quality and pricing,” he said.

To that, Media Minister and Government Spokesperson Jumana Ghunaimat confirmed during the closed press meeting with Razzaz in Baghdad that work was under way to construct renewable energy facilities for industrial use, to lower the costs of energy for Jordanian manufacturers and exporters. She also added that the exemptions on the Iraqi side will add to the comparative cost advantage of Jordanian exports.

Doubling down on the reassurances, Razzaz followed up with promises to see the imminent implementation of the oil pipeline, which will allow Jordan to procure 10,000 barrels of oil on a daily basis. “But is that enough?” Akel asked.

Short on competitiveness

Much of the cost structure is energy, not only in terms of powering structures and industrial facilities, but also in terms of transportation costs, as well as in terms of input costs for manufacturing, he said. “The oil pipeline will take years to construct, and it will meet Israel’s resistance, for geopolitical reasons that have to do with the Iranian influence and the unsavoury relations between Iraq and Israel. I mean, we have seen this before. The pipeline is an old project that has never come through and is unlikely to see the light of day. And without the low-cost oil, regardless of the pipeline, much of the competitiveness of Jordanian exports will be lost, regardless of the exemptions,” Akel underlined.

As for the industrial estate, “I doubt the Iraqis have much interest in it,” he said. “The Iraqis want to build their domestic economic and industrial capabilities, and to be honest, the border is too far removed from the industrial centres in Iraq, making transportation domestically, to and from the estate, too costly and uncompetitive. In other words, the hopes hung on these deals to rejuvenate trade and exports are a little too out of proportion,” warned Akel.

Like Ababneh, but contrary to his optimism, Marji also agrees that Jordan has lost its exclusive export advantage, “with Turkey, Iran and the US being the largest shareholders in the Iraqi market. There are also Saudi Arabia and the UAE to watch out for”. There are still political barriers to the restoration of trade and ties in general between Iraq and the Arab Gulf, but it is only a matter of time, Marji noted.

Scrambling for foothold

“In almost all fields of exportation, the Saudis have developed industries that can easily drive Jordanian goods out of the Iraqi market, due to the competitive price offering and quality, not to mention that Jordan will soon be competing with the US via Saudi Arabia, as some of the world’s most prominent corporations — Procter and Gamble for instance — are producing and exporting out of Saudi Arabia.”

What remains for Jordan are some of the raw materials and minerals produced locally, such as phosphate and cement, which can hold a massive share in the Iraq market, but are not produced in enough quantities to compensate for the shrinkage of Jordan’s exports in foodstuffs, for example, or chemicals, Marji underlined. “We can, of course, export ICT expertise and services, both directly and indirectly. This is a field we have a relative advantage in, compared with other economies in the region. We can certainly help with the Iraqi government’s digitisation effort, as well as other related fields,” the economist highlighted.

In regards to commodities, traditional exports in particular, Jordanian products stands a small chance, if the private sector does not immediately turns inwards to boost the quality of their exports, Marji stressed.

He contended that the Iraqi consumer would soon see less costly options, and that the confidence they have in Jordanian products will not withstand the abundance of suitable choices. “There is appreciation for the Jordanian role over the years and confidence in Jordan, as a country, but there is little trust in Jordanian products, as Jordanian industrialists had often exploited the loose standards Iraqi authorities had set for Jordanian products,” Marji noted. This came at the expense of confidence in Jordanian commodities, he continued.

Abu Wishah agreed with Marji, but argued that some exporters maintained a reputable level of quality and service, since before the US occupation of Iraq in 2003. He stressed that the Iraqi importers do not stick to their previous impressions on the shortcomings of some of Jordan’s exporters in the time of the embargo on Iraq.

Apart from supply issues, there is the question of the Iraqi market itself, its own purchasing power and demand. “Aside maybe to ICT, the Iraqi market has neither the demand nor the purchasing power to absorb massive quantities of other Jordanian exports, even if [our] industrialists magically managed to produce the quantities in question of specific commodities that other economies in the region do not produce,” Marji suggested.

Re-penetration

For example, Jordan’s total exports of phosphate in 2017 stood at some 5.2 million tonnes, amounting in value to some JD586 million, a Jordan Phosphate Mining Company (JPMC) statement in April 2018 said. Data provided by the Department of Statistics puts phosphate exports to Iraq in 2016 at JD371.6 million. It should be noted that this particular mineral is readily available for export as a raw material, with minimal processing and manufacturing or development needed.

If Jordan were to focus solely on exporting phosphate to Iraq, the JPMC has to double its exports and split it evenly between Iraq and the rest of the world, for the economy to begin to compensate for the decline in demand for other exports driven out from the Iraqi market by competitors.

Combined, Jordan’s total exports of pharmaceuticals, fertilisers, raw phosphate and potash in 2017 amounted to some JD1.03 billion, at 23 per cent of the total export mix. Jordan’s overall exports amount to around JD4.35 billion worth of goods and commodities, including national products and re-exports.

Although data by the Department of Statistics does not show Jordanian exports of phosphate and potash to Iraq in specific, they do show that among the Kingdom’s top industrial goods exported to Iraq in 2017 were pharmaceutical products and fertilisers, at JD61.8 million and JD47.3 million, respectively. That said, Marji argued, is there demand in Iraq for these raw minerals and materials? If so, is there the purchasing power to consume and absorb these quantities?

Contrarily, Akel suggests that Jordan focuses on low-tech, low-cost products in order to re-penetrate the Iraqi market and not clash against the tides of Turkish and Iranian products. Abu Wishah disagreed. “We must not deny any exporter the chance to benefit from the opportunity presented by the underway and coming facilitation of exportation to Iraq.”

Focusing on one, two or three products will be counterproductive, he warned.

The governments of both Iraq and Jordan must do their part in regards to tax, custom and fee exemptions, as well as power cost reductions.“Leave the rest to the private sector and the market to sort itself out, and our exports will surely regain their competitiveness and shares, not only in the Iraqi market, but beyond. The government must hurry in its promised facilities, which we have been waiting for since the beginning of 2018, before time runs out and our regional competitors leave no place for us; then the mission will be doubly impossible,” Abu Wishah concluded.

Achievable as it may be, Jordanian exporters are hopeful, yet worried, that the needed facilities to boost trade and competitiveness for their products may not come in time before the Iraqi market is completely overrun by rival commodities.

February 2 is the hour-zero for Jordanian-Iraqi trade ties, as much is promised to change, to rejuvenate what the Iraqi ambassador reaffirms to be an “exquisite”, mutually-beneficial relationship.

MilitiaMan post #44 01-10-19

Thanks Samson!!!

This is a long article be sure, but, clearly Jordan wants a hand in the cookie jar.. Contracts!! Many are in progress and underway..They are waiting on promises from 2018.. Well, it sure seems they took time to tell us the pros and cons.. They mean business.. A good thing.. (IMO) lol imo ~ MM

https://www.globalnegotiator.com/international-trade/dictionary/export-contract/
https://www.giz.de/expertise/html/3270.html

Popeye7: SK... As I was reading the article that date 2 February stood out like a sore thumb... Groundhog Day as well... IMO, you did a great synopsis of this article... Got to the meat of the matter so to speak... Thanks to you, and to Samson for posting the article... The 2nd of February is on a Saturday, which would make the 1st of Feb. Friday... Perfect time to post that new rate IMHO...

MilitiaMan: It was a good and long article that has the pros and cons of what Jordan has before her as a country in trade competition with other nations.

Their King arrived today and according to the articles they have deals in place that will be and are underway already.

As earlier noted today about the pipeline out of Basra in the south going to the north. So, the other many items to a lesser extent may / will be sorted out. The fact that so many heads of state are showing up into Iraq lately is phenomenal and a show of solidarity in the re construction effort of and in Iraq.

Yes, and you touched on the mineral trade Jordan has her eyes on, as has the USA, Great Britain, China, etc..

Lets not forget that in the American Gold Rush days, the miners made a killing but the merchants selling to the companies and their employees made the lion share.. Every new good paying job supports 3-10 more in cases...

A very powerful time to the in Iraq's new found system.. imo ~ MM