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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    Analysis US analysis predicts "invasion" of Iran and compares similarities to events with Iraq befor

    Rocky
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    Analysis US analysis predicts "invasion" of Iran and compares similarities to events with Iraq befor Empty Analysis US analysis predicts "invasion" of Iran and compares similarities to events with Iraq befor

    Post by Rocky Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:46 am

    [size=32]
    Analysis US analysis predicts "invasion" of Iran and compares similarities to events with Iraq before 2003[/size]
    Analysis US analysis predicts "invasion" of Iran and compares similarities to events with Iraq befor UStanks_baghdad_2003

     Twilight News    

     19 minutes ago



    In an interview with the American magazine Foreign Policy, Stephen Cook discussed the possibility of the US invasion of Iran and the similarity of current events to what happened before the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.

    "The US administration, headed by Donald Trump, has repeatedly stressed that the Warsaw summit on the Middle East last week was an effort to demonstrate international solidarity and support to isolate Iran," said the author, who is a fellow of the Ene Enrico Matte Fellowship for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. , But it seemed to be a summit to declare war.

    The summit was attended by US Vice President Mike Bens, Foreign Minister Mike Pompeo, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and a number of Arab foreign ministers. British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt coincided with the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Republic of Iran. A video on Twitter highlights Washington's long list of grievances and accusations against Iranian leaders, referring ultimately to Ayatollah Khamenei. "I do not think you will have more celebrations," he said.

    Vice President Mike Bens used the summit to direct some harsh words to US allies in Europe, who accused them of helping and inciting an enemy of the United States.

    The events of the past week are somehow familiar. Iran has not been the same as the war fever that Washington seized in 2002 before the invasion of Iraq. But it is not difficult to miss the administration's efforts to form a debate. Both domestic and international.

    Although no one in Washington has mentioned nuclear bombs and weapons in talking about Iran, it is not difficult to happen soon as senior US officials have announced that their counterparts are just a gang of killers trying to control the region. Stressed by the administration of George W. Bush when talking about Saddam Hussein and Iraq.

    The Russo summit also reminds us of the way the Bush administration has navigated the four corners of the world to build its coalition of those who want to invade Iraq. Many insiders in Washington say Trump's administration ignores professionals in the US intelligence community, the Pentagon, and other foreign policy bureaucracies , Which ruled that Iran complies with the comprehensive joint action plan or the so-called Iranian nuclear agreement.

    Nothing indicates that Iran is a benign state in the Middle East (and Iraq was not a good country either). Iranian violations are known. Iranian leaders have allowed the killing of hundreds of thousands of Syrians. They have invested in the Huthi militia to make Saudi Arabia bleed in Yemen and threaten stability. Bahrain. Then there is Hezbollah, which according to the US government receives $ 700 million a year from Iran and has become an exploratory force for Iran in Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan. The Iranians have repeatedly called for the destruction of Israel and supported groups such as Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

    Trump ignored its case to build a war against Iran, two important facts. First, even if the Iranian leaders, the administration says, are determined to turn the region into a Persian region of influence, they are not good at it. If they succeeded, they would benefit from the strategic mistakes of others - the United States in Iraq, Saudi Arabia in Yemen, and Bashar Assad in Syria. Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Corps, said Israeli operations against Iran in Syria were weak, confirming that the administration was exaggerating the Iranian challenge.

    Secondly, what Iran is doing is not surprising at all. Tehran wants to keep Iraq weak and unstable so that Baghdad can not become a threat to it again. And came to save Assad to maintain its association with Hezbollah, which is the main means by which it tries to influence the Levant and the challenge of Israeli superiority there. In short, Iranians are using the resources available to them to disrupt the US-led regional system that harms them in favor of Saudis and Israelis.

    The writer added that what Iran is doing in the region is not acceptable at all, but are they reasons for war and regime change? The United States has the strongest representation in the region, Israel is safe, oil is still flowing from the Gulf. It is true that Saudi Arabia has been attacked by Iranian allies in Yemen, but this is likely to stop when the Saudis finish their military operations there.

    Former President Barack Obama tried to resolve the Iran problem and began the comprehensive joint work plan (the Iranian nuclear deal) in accordance with the theory that an agreement on Iran's nuclear program would provide a way for broader talks. But it did not work because the Iranians sought to put pressure on their interests in the region. Trump - along with his advisers and the Republican Party - hated the deal from the start, believing that the Iranian regime could not be reformed.

    The writer pointed out that this may be true, but the smart policy in this case will aim to balance Obama's misplaced optimism and Trump trends. In other words, smart politics will do what the United States and Israel do to meet the Iranian challenge: deterrent, that is what the Israelis are doing now in Syria, and this is what the United States did in the spring of 1988 when Iran challenged the US priority in the Gulf, A large Iranian navy at the seabed.

    He explained that deterrence does not require anyone to lie to reality and convince himself that Iran can or will want to be a constructive regional force. It is a hard and realistic approach to a problem that does not require war at the present time. Deterrence is likely to receive more international support Rather than a rush towards conflict.

    The big difference between 2002 and 2019 is the Democrats' insistence that they do not make the same mistakes they made 17 years ago when they allowed the Bush administration to set the conditions for a debate that paved the way for the invasion of Iraq. Although many members of Congress are concerned about Iran, Democrats in particular will not support another war in the Middle East. This may change if there is some kind of provocation in the region, but at the moment, the Iranians are not ready to take this step.

    "However, the prospects for a conflict with Iran seem to be greater than six months ago," he concluded.


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    http://www.shafaaq.com/ar/Ar_NewsReader/c188ceef-ab1c-461a-a21b-1a5a7bc08a44
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