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Three American options to achieve a rapid deterrence against Iran's arms in Iraq
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]a journalist specializing in American and Arab affairs [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Saturday 14 March 2020 12:08
[/size]
Remnants of the American strike in the Jurf al-Sakhr region, which is controlled by the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades (AFP).[/size]
[size=17][rtl]Military and political experts in Washington realize that the attacks launched by the American and British planes against the sites of the pro-Iranian "Hezbollah" brigades in Iraq will not be the last. Rather, it could be one of a series of strikes and counterattacks that expand into a greater conflict circle, in light of the escalation. An Iranian who wants to expel American forces from Iraq, and at the same time threatening Iraqi leaders ahead of choosing a new prime minister for Iraq, instead of resigned Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, which is why Washington has begun studying three different options for dealing with pro-Iranian militias in Iraq.[/rtl]
[rtl]Although US Defense Secretary Mark Esber has made it clear that whoever shoots and wounds Americans will not survive, the question that now concerns the United States is how can deterrence be achieved quickly, to end the cycle of attacks against American forces, and to prevent new losses in The lives of Americans and the international coalition forces in general.[/rtl]
[rtl]Tight planning[/rtl]
[rtl]And while Iran was silent last Wednesday when a missile attack killed two Americans and a British person at the sprawling Taji military base north of Baghdad, the Americans realized that the attack was carefully planned, and it was not an act of the remnants of ISIS, given that a truck carrying two rows of missile launch tubes, It approached invisibly without being detected, and the missiles were fired at once suddenly.[/rtl]
[rtl]With the spread of concrete blocks and barriers at the Taji base, which has an area of 15 square miles, American military experts have recognized the extreme accuracy of the missile strike in that it was directed at the right moment towards the desired target through human guidance or a drone drone. [/rtl]
[rtl]Immediate revenge[/rtl]
[rtl]Hours later, the pro-Iranian Shiite Iraqi Hizballah Brigades praised this attack as part of what it calls "resistance against the American occupation", which the United States considered a sure sign that the Iraqi Hezbollah militia was behind the strike that it boasted of.[/rtl]
[rtl]By this stage, unknown - possibly American - aircraft launched attacks on Hezbollah Brigades and other Shiite militias in Syria, killing and wounding dozens before American and British aircraft launched other attacks on missile stores belonging to the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades.[/rtl]
[rtl]The attacks and counter-attacks, the US launched in late December against Hezbollah Brigades, retaliated for the killing of a US contractor in a missile attack on the 27th of the same month.[/rtl]
[rtl]One country and two enemies[/rtl]
[rtl]However, the killing of the two Americans at the Taji base, a soldier and a contractor, came days after the killing of two Marines Special Forces on March 8 in a gun battle with ISIS in northern Iraq, which shows the complexity of what the US military faces two enemies in One country[/rtl]
[rtl]While the mission of the coalition forces remains to defeat the remaining remnants of ISIS by intensifying raids in cooperation with the Iraqi special forces and achieving great successes, this will have a price indicated by the events of March 8.[/rtl]
[rtl]To complicate matters for the United States, Iranian-backed militias such as the Hezbollah Brigades are actively seeking to remove US and coalition forces from Iraq by any means, regardless of the extent to which coalition forces have contributed to fighting ISIS operatives.[/rtl]
[rtl]This is not evidenced by the fact that the Hezbollah Brigades sought to expel the Western international forces long before they killed the American contractor in the December 27, 2019 attack and even before the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Quds Force and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis in a US raid on January 3 ( Last January.[/rtl]
[rtl]What do you want Iranian militias?[/rtl]
[rtl]According to Michael Knights, an expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Iranian militias have redoubled their efforts to warn Iraqi officials that they should distance themselves from the coalition forces (which they have not yet responded to), and Hezbollah brigades have made threats to members of the Iraqi parliament. To force them to vote to remove the American forces from Iraq, but members of Parliament resisted these pressures, as Iraqi President Barham Saleh rejected his threat and met President Trump in Davos on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.[/rtl]
[rtl]Now, the Hezbollah Brigades issue statements and statements in which they object to candidates in their own eyes for the position of the new prime minister, and instead proposes the candidate you want to choose, the current Prime Minister Adel Abdel-Mahdi, and it also proposes boldly and clearly how senior religious leaders can play a role in the process Choose a new prime minister.[/rtl]
[rtl]Restore deterrence[/rtl]
[rtl]The American “Politico” website indicates that the United States has not yet been able to deter Iranian militias in Iraq from killing Americans, and as a result, the American forces in Iraq are not protected by the Iraqi government, and therefore they are not protected by the American government, but this situation cannot To continue, according to a number of American experts.[/rtl]
[rtl]Available alternatives[/rtl]
[rtl]Knights says that there are three alternatives that the United States can take, one of which - though unlikely in the current stage - is the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq, which is what the Hezbollah, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and ISIS wish, especially that American history indicates that the states The United States may retreat at a later time, and in perhaps worse conditions, to fight an Iraq under Iran's control.[/rtl]
[rtl]The second option is for the United States to play with Iran and its militias with the same rules of the game, which is killing and liquidating more of their forces in an ongoing campaign to eliminate them, which is not difficult given the American military capabilities that allow them in the long run to reduce Iran's influence in Iraq, But this option carries an unconfirmed risk of stimulating hostility against the United States.[/rtl]
[rtl]The third option is for the United States to play the role of the victim, and to take responsibility with each attack, so that the response will be commensurate with every situation, with the majority of retaliatory strikes outside Iraq in order to avoid the anger of the Iraqi nationalists. The recent US strikes are in line with the third option of proportional response.[/rtl]
[rtl]The middle road[/rtl]
[rtl]Experts in the American capital indicate that the Hezbollah Brigades and other proxy groups of Iran could bear the loss of dozens of its soldiers in exchange for killing three Americans and Britons every day, which means a great loss to the United States.[/rtl]
[rtl]For this reason, some people are advised that the United States take a middle way that mixes the second and third options, meaning that the strikes are swift, decisive and unannounced against a number of senior Iraqi militia leaders, so that others seriously consider the danger this poses to their personal future. [/rtl]
[rtl]While Iran appears keen to hide the whereabouts of the Iraqi leaders, which made them temporarily safe from the American attacks, the American administration needs to cooperate with the Congress to agree on basic rules for the use of military force, allowing American forces to define a set of options and timing for launching deterrent strikes and hitting the required targets when It becomes available to American forces.[/rtl]
[rtl]Strengthening protection[/rtl]
[rtl]In parallel, the United States should take a tough stance that would allow it to bring Patriot missile batteries and air defenses to protect it against missile attacks without consulting with an Iraqi government that prefers a "do not ask or declare" approach.[/rtl]
[rtl][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[/rtl]
[/size]
Withdrawal, liquidation campaign, proportional strikes, or a combination of them
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]a journalist specializing in American and Arab affairs [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Saturday 14 March 2020 12:08
[/size]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[size]Remnants of the American strike in the Jurf al-Sakhr region, which is controlled by the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades (AFP).[/size]
[size=17][rtl]Military and political experts in Washington realize that the attacks launched by the American and British planes against the sites of the pro-Iranian "Hezbollah" brigades in Iraq will not be the last. Rather, it could be one of a series of strikes and counterattacks that expand into a greater conflict circle, in light of the escalation. An Iranian who wants to expel American forces from Iraq, and at the same time threatening Iraqi leaders ahead of choosing a new prime minister for Iraq, instead of resigned Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, which is why Washington has begun studying three different options for dealing with pro-Iranian militias in Iraq.[/rtl]
[rtl]Although US Defense Secretary Mark Esber has made it clear that whoever shoots and wounds Americans will not survive, the question that now concerns the United States is how can deterrence be achieved quickly, to end the cycle of attacks against American forces, and to prevent new losses in The lives of Americans and the international coalition forces in general.[/rtl]
[rtl]Tight planning[/rtl]
[rtl]And while Iran was silent last Wednesday when a missile attack killed two Americans and a British person at the sprawling Taji military base north of Baghdad, the Americans realized that the attack was carefully planned, and it was not an act of the remnants of ISIS, given that a truck carrying two rows of missile launch tubes, It approached invisibly without being detected, and the missiles were fired at once suddenly.[/rtl]
[rtl]With the spread of concrete blocks and barriers at the Taji base, which has an area of 15 square miles, American military experts have recognized the extreme accuracy of the missile strike in that it was directed at the right moment towards the desired target through human guidance or a drone drone. [/rtl]
[rtl]Immediate revenge[/rtl]
[rtl]Hours later, the pro-Iranian Shiite Iraqi Hizballah Brigades praised this attack as part of what it calls "resistance against the American occupation", which the United States considered a sure sign that the Iraqi Hezbollah militia was behind the strike that it boasted of.[/rtl]
[rtl]By this stage, unknown - possibly American - aircraft launched attacks on Hezbollah Brigades and other Shiite militias in Syria, killing and wounding dozens before American and British aircraft launched other attacks on missile stores belonging to the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades.[/rtl]
[rtl]The attacks and counter-attacks, the US launched in late December against Hezbollah Brigades, retaliated for the killing of a US contractor in a missile attack on the 27th of the same month.[/rtl]
[rtl]One country and two enemies[/rtl]
[rtl]However, the killing of the two Americans at the Taji base, a soldier and a contractor, came days after the killing of two Marines Special Forces on March 8 in a gun battle with ISIS in northern Iraq, which shows the complexity of what the US military faces two enemies in One country[/rtl]
[rtl]While the mission of the coalition forces remains to defeat the remaining remnants of ISIS by intensifying raids in cooperation with the Iraqi special forces and achieving great successes, this will have a price indicated by the events of March 8.[/rtl]
[rtl]To complicate matters for the United States, Iranian-backed militias such as the Hezbollah Brigades are actively seeking to remove US and coalition forces from Iraq by any means, regardless of the extent to which coalition forces have contributed to fighting ISIS operatives.[/rtl]
[rtl]This is not evidenced by the fact that the Hezbollah Brigades sought to expel the Western international forces long before they killed the American contractor in the December 27, 2019 attack and even before the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Quds Force and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis in a US raid on January 3 ( Last January.[/rtl]
[rtl]What do you want Iranian militias?[/rtl]
[rtl]According to Michael Knights, an expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Iranian militias have redoubled their efforts to warn Iraqi officials that they should distance themselves from the coalition forces (which they have not yet responded to), and Hezbollah brigades have made threats to members of the Iraqi parliament. To force them to vote to remove the American forces from Iraq, but members of Parliament resisted these pressures, as Iraqi President Barham Saleh rejected his threat and met President Trump in Davos on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.[/rtl]
[rtl]Now, the Hezbollah Brigades issue statements and statements in which they object to candidates in their own eyes for the position of the new prime minister, and instead proposes the candidate you want to choose, the current Prime Minister Adel Abdel-Mahdi, and it also proposes boldly and clearly how senior religious leaders can play a role in the process Choose a new prime minister.[/rtl]
[rtl]Restore deterrence[/rtl]
[rtl]The American “Politico” website indicates that the United States has not yet been able to deter Iranian militias in Iraq from killing Americans, and as a result, the American forces in Iraq are not protected by the Iraqi government, and therefore they are not protected by the American government, but this situation cannot To continue, according to a number of American experts.[/rtl]
[rtl]Available alternatives[/rtl]
[rtl]Knights says that there are three alternatives that the United States can take, one of which - though unlikely in the current stage - is the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq, which is what the Hezbollah, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and ISIS wish, especially that American history indicates that the states The United States may retreat at a later time, and in perhaps worse conditions, to fight an Iraq under Iran's control.[/rtl]
[rtl]The second option is for the United States to play with Iran and its militias with the same rules of the game, which is killing and liquidating more of their forces in an ongoing campaign to eliminate them, which is not difficult given the American military capabilities that allow them in the long run to reduce Iran's influence in Iraq, But this option carries an unconfirmed risk of stimulating hostility against the United States.[/rtl]
[rtl]The third option is for the United States to play the role of the victim, and to take responsibility with each attack, so that the response will be commensurate with every situation, with the majority of retaliatory strikes outside Iraq in order to avoid the anger of the Iraqi nationalists. The recent US strikes are in line with the third option of proportional response.[/rtl]
[rtl]The middle road[/rtl]
[rtl]Experts in the American capital indicate that the Hezbollah Brigades and other proxy groups of Iran could bear the loss of dozens of its soldiers in exchange for killing three Americans and Britons every day, which means a great loss to the United States.[/rtl]
[rtl]For this reason, some people are advised that the United States take a middle way that mixes the second and third options, meaning that the strikes are swift, decisive and unannounced against a number of senior Iraqi militia leaders, so that others seriously consider the danger this poses to their personal future. [/rtl]
[rtl]While Iran appears keen to hide the whereabouts of the Iraqi leaders, which made them temporarily safe from the American attacks, the American administration needs to cooperate with the Congress to agree on basic rules for the use of military force, allowing American forces to define a set of options and timing for launching deterrent strikes and hitting the required targets when It becomes available to American forces.[/rtl]
[rtl]Strengthening protection[/rtl]
[rtl]In parallel, the United States should take a tough stance that would allow it to bring Patriot missile batteries and air defenses to protect it against missile attacks without consulting with an Iraqi government that prefers a "do not ask or declare" approach.[/rtl]
[rtl][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[/rtl]
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