Weekly Iraq

Weekly Iraq .Xplored report
13 May 2017
Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Iraq
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
13 May 2017
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................................... 2 ACTIVITY MAP .................................................................................................................................................... 3 OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................................................. 4
Short term outlook ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Medium to long term outlook............................................................................................................................ 4
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS...................................................................................................................................... 5
Report claims plans put forward to postpone parliamentary elections until April 2019 ............................ 5
Further reports indicate possible postponement of September 2017 provincial elections ....................... 5
THREAT MATRIX ................................................................................................................................................ 5 LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ............................................................................................................................... 5
Mosul ................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Political................................................................................................................................................................ 6
Security ............................................................................................................................................................... 7
Foreign Affairs.................................................................................................................................................... 9
Economy ........................................................................................................................................................... 10
WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................. 11
Countrywide Military/Security Situation ........................................................................................................ 11
ACRONYM LIST ................................................................................................................................................ 16 GARDAWORLD INFORMATION SERVICES .............................................................................................. 17 GARDAWORLD.................................................................................................................................................. 17
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Disclaimer: The information and opinions expressed in this Report are the views of GardaWorld and constitute a judgment as at the date of the Report and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions expressed in this Report have been formed in good faith on the basis of the best information and intelligence available at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. GardaWorld accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or the information set out in this Report and the reader is advised that any decision taken to act or not to act in reliance on this Report is taken solely at the reader’s own risk. In particular, the comments in this Report should not be construed as advice, legal or otherwise.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
13 May 2017
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ACTIVITY MAP

Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
13 May 2017
OUTLOOK
Short term outlook
 As the operation in West Mosul continues, there is a heightened risk of high-profile attacks in permissive areas across Iraq including Baghdad, Salah ad Din and Diyala, as IS retains intent to increase sectarian tensions and force a redeployment of ISF resources away from Mosul. This is underlined by recent VBIED attacks in Shia-dominated areas of Baghdad City as well as multiple lower level IEDs, especially in eastern Baghdad. With ethno-sectarian tensions currently heightened in Kirkuk, there is also an increased possibility of high- profile attacks in Kirkuk City, although IS capability to conduct such an attack is assessed as less than in those areas with a majority Sunni demographic. An increase in attacks can also be expected in eastern Anbar, in particular the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah, as evidenced by recent high-profile attacks in the region.
 The security footprint and other local factors in the south, particularly in Baghdad, will severely constrain IS ability to mount sustained complex attacks of the sort seen in the north and the west of the country, though the threat from low-level IED and SAF attacks remains. There may be an increased level of ISF deliberate actions to disrupt and deter insurgent and criminal activity during the Mosul operation, especially in the northern areas of Baghdad province.
Medium to long term outlook
 In the absence of concerted engagement with the Sunni population in areas currently under IS control, it is possible that the post-IS security environment will be characterized by sectarian flash points between radical Sunni tribes and Shia militia groups especially in Nineveh province and western Kirkuk. Limited reporting has already indicated displaced Sunni families being advised or directed to leave Kirkuk. It is almost certain that in areas retaken by ISF, an insurgency will be established by Sunni insurgents including remaining IS affiliates.
 Low-level incidents related to criminality, personal disputes and tribal tensions are likely to continue in Basra and the southern provinces in general. This is assessed to be facilitated by large segments of the security forces currently being involved in operations to retake IS-held areas of the country. In the long-term, there will be tensions driven by the return of Shia militia factions, who will expect material and social rewards for the contribution in the national campaign against IS.
 While the Mosul operation has refocused attention away from Abadi’s reform program, the risk of politically motivated demonstrations against corruption in front of government institutions remains extant.
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SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
Report claims plans put forward to postpone parliamentary elections until April 2019
According to a report carried by independent daily Al-Alam on May 7 citing ‘Iraqi sources’ the leaders of several political blocs have put forward a proposal to postpone the upcoming parliamentary elections until April 2019, adding that the recent visits of Iraqi National Alliance Chairman Ammar al-Hakim and Parliament Speaker Salim al-Juburi to Sadrist Movement leader Muqtada al-Sadr aimed to explore the latter's reaction to the proposal.
Further reports indicate possible postponement of September 2017 provincial elections
On May 8, the Baghdad based Al-Mashriq newspaper carried a report citing parliamentary Legal Committee Chairman Muhsin al-Sa'dun as saying that if the next provincial council elections are postponed, the current councils will continue their work and there will be no constitutional vacuum. The statement came after fellow committee member Zana Sa'id issued a statement on May 7 saying that it would be impossible to hold the next provincial elections as scheduled in September
THREAT MATRIX
Region KRG* North** Baghdad Anbar South***
Political
Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Minimal
Terrorism Militancy
Low Low
High-Extreme High Moderate Moderate
Crime K&R
Low Low
High High
Moderate
Moderate
High
Low
High
Moderate Moderate
High High
Moderate
Extreme
Moderate
* ** ***
KRG – Dohuk, Erbil & Sulaymaniyah
North – Nineveh, Salah ad-Din & Diyala
South – Babil, Wasit, Karbala, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Dhi Qar, Muthanna, Maysan & Basra
Threat Scale
Low
High
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
Mosul
Mosul Tactical Update
ISF have made notable progress on the north-west axis of advance in western Mosul. A number of industrial areas were retaken including Al-Ma'amil district earlier in the week. Additionally July 30 neighbourhood was announced recaptured by IA’s 9th Division, who linked up with ISF in neighbouring Haramat district. The latest neighbourhoods retaken were al-Islah al-Zira'i, where CTS also reported killing a senior IS leader of Syrian nationality. Federal Police and army units also recaptured Al-Hirmat al-Thaniya, in northwest Mosul. There has been no apparent progress in old Mosul, with ISF instead routinely utilising drones to drop grenades on insurgents.
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IS continue to kill civilians attempting to escape territory they hold, in an effort to use the population as human shields to complicate ISF’s advance. Seventeen civilian families were killed by militants as they attempted to escape an IS-controlled area in Zanjili district of western Mosul. IS also continue to target liberated areas with IDF, such as on May 7 when a market in New Mosul was hit, resulting in four civilians killed and nine injured.
To the west of Mosul, PMU units have launched ‘Mohammed Rasool Allah II’, an offensive to liberate Qairawan and Ba’aj and ultimately secure the border with Syria. Initial progress has been swift with nine villages retaken on the first day of the operation. There have been pockets of resistance including the use of VBIEDs and armoured bulldozers in an attempt to slow advancing forces, although latest reporting indicates PMU elements have cut the key road linking Qairawan with Sinjar.
Political
New Yezidi political party formed in Sinjar, alleged links to PKK
A new political party reportedly affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has been established in Sinjar in Nineveh province after it was officially recognized by Iraqi authorities. The PKK-affiliated Yezidi Freedom and Democracy Movement (TEVDA), in Sinjar, recently filed an official request to Iraqi authorities to approve the formation of a new political party called the Yezidi Freedom and Democracy Party (PADE). According to a media agency affiliated with the PKK, the new Yezidi party was officially recognized by the Iraqi Parliament on April 30, 2017. The report also stated that PADE will be able to participate in future Iraqi elections and will open its offices in northern Iraq. In an interview, Qahtan Ali, the head of PADE, stated that his group is a political party linked to the Iraqi state, adding they do not belong to other political parties or military groups.
Media report claims plans put forward to postpone parliamentary elections until April 2019
According to a report carried by independent daily Al-Alam on May 7 citing ‘Iraqi sources’ the leaders of several political blocs have put forward a proposal to postpone the upcoming parliamentary elections until April 2019, adding that the recent visits of Iraqi National Alliance Chairman Ammar al-Hakim and Parliament Speaker Salim al-Juburi to Sadrist Movement leader Muqtada al-Sadr aimed to explore the latter's reaction to the proposal. According to the report, the sources said that the proposal was also discussed during President Fuad Masum's meeting with his deputies on May 4, adding that Vice President Nuri al-Maliki rejected the proposal. The sources added that al-Juburi assured al-Sadr on replacing the members of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) in return for al-Sadr maintaining control of the street and his followers, should the political forces go ahead and postpone the elections.
Further reports indicate possible postponement of September 2017 provincial elections
On May 8, the Baghdad based Al-Mashriq newspaper carried a report citing parliamentary Legal Committee Chairman Muhsin al-Sa'dun as saying that if the next provincial council elections are postponed, the current councils will continue their work and there will be no constitutional vacuum. The statement came after fellow committee member Zana Sa'id issued a statement on May 7 saying that it would be impossible to hold the next provincial elections as scheduled in September; he also claimed that most political blocs support postponement so as to hold them along with the next parliamentary elections in 2018. Separate media reports on May 8 also cited a number of other Iraqi politicians as stating that many political blocs are now leaning toward postponing the September provincial council elections, to instead hold them along with the next parliamentary elections scheduled for April 2018.
Moqtada al-Sadr urges action against some Shia militias
Influential Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has called for action to be taken against some militias within the government-sponsored Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs) after seven anti-corruption activists who were kidnapped in Baghdad on May 8 were released a day later. Multiple media reports claimed that the activists were kidnapped by a ‘militia group’ aligned with the PMUs. The seven activists were also reported to have participated in the ongoing anti-corruption rallies organised by Sadr. In a statement published on Sadr's official
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website on May 10, Sadr warned that the kidnappings are an indication of what will happen in the future after the government regains control over the areas held by IS. Sadr further stated that when militia groups are given military and security powers, they will also be politically in control and able to act without deterrent. Sadr’s statement called for the exclusion of the ‘criminal elements’ from the ranks of the PMUs and the organisations exclusion from running in elections. The statement also called for safeguards for activist and media personnel and for the legitimate security forces to take firm action against criminals within the militias.
Over 600,000 displaced from Mosul according to latest UN figures
More than 630,000 people have been displaced in and around Mosul since the beginning of military operations last October, the United Nations said in their latest statement released on May 12, citing Iraqi authorities. The figure includes more than 434,000 displaced from western Mosul since mid-February, Andrej Mahecic, spokesman for UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), told reporters at the UN ́s Geneva headquarters. Mahecic stated that six months into the Mosul offensive, the UNHCR remains concerned about the continuing massive displacement. Despite enormous risks, the number of people fleeing West Mosul shows no sign of slowing down. He added that fleeing people told the UNHRC that the city continues to lack basic services such as food, water, and fuel. Mahecic also said that the refugee agency has opened its 12th camp in northern Iraq this week to shelter people fleeing the fighting in western Mosul. He also warned of the lack of funds for the UNHCR's current humanitarian activities, stating that current programmes are only 18 percent funded and that only US$105.1 million out of US$578 million pledged by donor countries has been received to date.
Security
US company signs contract to secure key border road between Baghdad and Jordan
Recent media reports have confirmed that a US based security company has signed a contract with the Iraqi government to secure the main routes between Baghdad and the Trebil border crossing with Jordan in western Anbar province. According to the report, the contract will not only include security measures along the road, but will also include the provision of fuel stations and rest areas, in addition to reconstructing bridges along the route. The report also mentioned unspecified electronic surveillance measures to secure the route, though no specifics were detailed. The report also claimed that around 5,000 tribal volunteers will be recruited to provide security for the project. A statement by the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) confirmed that as Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi had signed the contract and he is the ‘commander in chief’ then they will support his decision, the statement did however question why the contract had been agreed with ‘a state that had occupied Iraq’. Statements in March and April by two prominent Shia groups within the PMU have however voiced their opposition.
Seven anti-corruption activists kidnapped in Baghdad, but later released
Seven Iraqi anti-corruption activists were reported to have been kidnapped during the early hours of May 8 in Baghdad city by unknown gunmen. According to a statement released by their organisation, the young activists were abducted by a group of hooded men in an SUV with tinted windows from their communal home in the Bab al-Sharqi district of central Baghdad just after 1am. The men, all college students, including some members of the Iraqi Communist Party, had been involved in the ongoing anti-corruption campaign in Iraq, which originally began with protests in August 2015, led by largely secular youth activists. The ‘Citizens activist organisation’ said in a statement on its Facebook page that because previous threats and intimidation against anti-corruption activists had gone unpunished, the authorities had effectively given a ‘green light’ to the kidnappings. The statement also said that the group holds the Iraqi government responsible for their safety and alleged that the kidnappings were conducted by an unspecified militia group. On May 9, Interior Minister Qassem al-Araji announced that all seven had been released without giving specific details of their release. Araji announced the release of the abducted activists on the official interior ministries Facebook page.
PM Abadi says security in Iraq requires securing the border with Syria
During his weekly news conference, aired by official Iraqia News TV on May 9, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has said that part of the plan to defeat IS requires closing the borders with Syria. Abadi added that a clear plan
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was underway to secure the border areas with Syria. The statement followed a similar announcement on May 8, when Abadi said that Iraq was seeking to secure the borders with Syria to prevent any attacks by IS against Iraqi security units. As part of the plan to secure the border, Abadi stated that liberating the towns of Anah, Rawa and Al-Qa'im towns, in western Anbar Province was pivotal. He further said that operations have been launched in Nineveh as well as desert areas around Anbar and near the borders with Syria including areas north and south of Al-Rutba, in Anbar, particularly in Wadi Hauran which lies between Iraq, Syria and Jordan and through which IS militants infiltrate the country and threaten the highway.
Further Turkish airstrikes against PKK camps in northern Iraq
Turkish airstrikes again targeted Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) locations in northern Iraq on May 8, destroying positions and camps, the Turkish military announced. Airstrikes were reported to have been conducted against camps in the Metina, Zap, Avasin-Basyan and Gara regions, which led to the destruction of three camps, a cave complex and four bunkers according to a statement from the Turkish General Staff. The Turkish military said the airstrikes, which the Iraqi government as well as the US and Russia military, were notified in advance and were intended to prevent the PKK from mounting attacks inside southern Turkey.
OIR spokesman reports progress in defeating IS in Iraq & Syria
Partnered forces in Iraq and Syria are making continued progress in defeating IS in Iraq and Syria, the spokesman for Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) Colonel John Dorrian told Pentagon reporters via a videoconference from Baghdad on May 10. Dorrian stated that Iraqi security forces are making continued progress as they move into the central areas of west Mosul on multiple axes. Their advance is presenting the terrorists with more dilemmas then they can react to, Dorrian added. Dorrian added that Iraqi counterterrorism service have accelerated their advances into the industrial section of west Mosul following last week’s new axis in northwest Mosul by the 9th Iraqi Armoured Division and Iraqi Federal Police. Dorrian however pointed out that as ISF continue their advance they continue to encounter tough resistance from snipers, vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices and IS’ use of civilians as human shields. Dorrian added that it remains difficult to predict how long the final liberation of Mosul will take, but pointed to the fact that IS’ defences are degraded with each passing day.
Iraqi forces to conduct ‘purge operations’ in southern Anbar
Iraqi security and tribal forces have launched an operation to ‘purge’ the desert areas south of Al-Rutba district in Anbar Province near the Jordanian and Saudi border areas, Anbar Operations commander, Staff Maj Gen Mahmoud al-Falahi, told Al-Sumaria News website on May 11. Falahi added that forces from the army’s 1st and 8th divisions, a commando brigade from Anbar Operations, and tribal fighters have launched a large-scale operation, backed by international coalition and Iraqi air support, to purge the desert areas south of Al-Rutba of IS militants. According to Falahi, the operation aims at hunting down militants and destroying their sites and camps in the desert areas as far east as Al-Nukhaib, which sits on the main transit route from Karbala to Ar Ar in Saudi Arabia.
Shiite militia leader talks of full Middle East dominance
During a speech at a graduation ceremony of Shiite clerics in Iraq on May 10, Asaib Ahl Al-Haq (AAH) militia commander Qais Al-Khazali said that “The reappearance of Imam Mahdi will mark the completion of the Shiite project. Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Asaib Ahl Al-Haq and the Houthis are working hard to make the ground fertile for Imam Mahdi.” Al-Khazali added “We continue to work toward our project of a Shiite full moon, not a Shiite crescent as our enemies say.” Al-Khazali was referring to the Shiite belief that Imam Mahdi, the 12th and last Shiite imam who disappeared in the 9th century, will one day appear in order to bring justice to earth. The phrase ‘Shiite crescent’ was first coined by King Abdallah of Jordan 10 years ago. At that time, he meant Iranian control over Lebanon via Hezbollah, Syria via the Bashar Assad regime, and Iraq through the new Iran-allied government in Baghdad. Observers now see Al-Khazali reference to a ‘Shiite full moon’ as an indication that Iran intends to significantly expand its influence in the region via its proxies.
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PMU forces launch offensive against IS positions near the Syrian border
In a statement on May 12, Popular Mobilisation Unit (PMU) forces have reported that they have retaken IS-held areas near the border with Syria, including the towns of al-Qairawan and Baaj," Abdul-Amir Yarallah from the Joint Operations Command said in a statement. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy commander of the PMU units said in another statement that the paramilitary units are still surrounding the IS-held town of Tal Afar, some 70 km west of Mosul, as PMU forces are carrying out the first phase of a major offensive that aims at securing the border areas with Syria. Muhandis also stated that this latest operation was part of larger planned offensive to retake the town of Tal Afar to the west of Mosul and secure the Iraqi border with Syria. The PMU were reported to have been supported by Iraqi aviation assets in their latest operation.
Foreign Affairs
Lull in fighting in Syria as Russian brokered ‘de-escalation zone’ deal comes into effect
In a statement the Russian defence ministry announced that the agreement on the creation of ‘de-escalation zones’ in Syria entered into force at midnight on May 6. The initiative to create ‘de-escalation zones’ in the major areas of conflict in western Syria was proposed by Russia and supported by Iran, Turkey and the Assad government. The agreement was signed at the Syria peace talks in Astana on May 4 by Russia, Turkey and Iran. A number of political and armed opposition groups have rejected the proposal, saying Russia has been unwilling or unable to get Assad and his Iranian-backed militia allies to respect past ceasefires. The Syrian government said it backed the proposal but said it would continue to fight what it called terrorist groups across the country. Fighting between Syrian rebel and government forces was reported to have eased on May 6 as the agreement took effect, although battles continued on important frontlines near Hama and Damascus, according to independent reports.
MSF treats war-wounded and addresses gaps in hospital care
The latest statement by Doctors without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) published on May 8 reported that besides providing lifesaving emergency and surgical care to men, women and children wounded in the ongoing battle for Mosul, its teams are now extending their response to cover gaps in hospital care, left by the severe destruction of the local health system in the city. The statement also points out that hundreds of thousands of people are still trapped in west Mosul and that patients who make it to MSF facilities have confirmed that water and food is running low, that the few supplies available are extremely expensive, and that access to health care is almost impossible.
Erdogan urges allies to side with Turkey against terrorism
In a news conference on May 10, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on Turkeys allies to ‘side with Ankara’ and not support terrorist organizations. Erdogan added that developments in Syria and Iraq are a matter of national security for Turkey. Erdogan’s comments came after the US Pentagon announced that President Trump had approved arming elements of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) ahead of an attempt to drive IS from Raqqah, the last major Syrian city held by the group. The SDF is spearheaded by the People's Protection Units (YPG) the Syrian affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Turkey views the YPG and its political wing the Democratic Union Party (PYD) as Syrian affiliates of the PKK who Turkey classes as a terrorist group due to its 30+ year campaign against the Turkish state. The PKK is also listed as a terror organization by the US and EU.
Turkish opposition suggests cancelling Erdogan-Trump meeting
As it expects ‘no good result’ out of next week's meeting of the Turkish and US presidents in Washington, Turkey's main opposition party has suggested the government should cancel the scheduled May 16 meeting. Ozturk Yilmaz, deputy chair of the Republican People's Party (CHP) made the comments on May 12 in the wake of the announcement that the US Defence Department is to arm the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the Syrian affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Syria. Yilmaz stated that weapons the US brought to Iraq in years past stayed there and fell into the wrong hands.
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Economy
Japan contributes additional US$16.7 million to UNDP stabilization programme in Iraq
The Government of Japan has contributed an additional US$16.7 million to UN Development Programmes (UNDP’s) Funding Facility for Stabilization (FFS) and Iraq Crisis Response and Resilience Programme (ICRRP) to promote stabilization, recovery, and resilience-building in areas liberated from IS and in areas with large displaced populations. This new funding brings Japan’s total contribution to FFS and ICRRP close to US$60 million since 2014. Based on priorities identified by the Government of Iraq and local authorities, FFS helps quickly repair public infrastructure, provides grants to small businesses, boosts the capacity of local government, promotes civil engagement and community reconciliation, and provides short-term employment through public works schemes. Japan’s additional contribution to FFS will support the rapid rehabilitation of key infrastructure and provide livelihood support in newly liberated areas, including in Mosul. In a statement, the UNDP Resident Representative for Iraq, Lise Grande welcomed the additional contribution from Japan saying that stabilisation programmes were one of the most important things the UNDP is doing in Iraq.
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WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT
Countrywide Military/Security Situation Northern Provinces (Kirkuk/Salah al-Din/Diyala)
Aside from Mosul, reporting from the north region has been relatively subdued, with most activity conforming to localised trends. There was one standout incident in Kirkuk, involving a complex attack on an airbase that is also used by US military advisers. Security forces shot and killed four suicide bombers in the attack, 20km northwest of Kirkuk, although two ISF were killed and six injured when two other bombers managed to detonate their explosive vests.
The majority of incidents in Salah ad Din occurred in the north of the province. There was the usual reporting of regular IDF and direct fire attacks targeting ISF around the Thermal Power Plant northeast of Bayji, as well as attacks targeting ISF on the Siniya-Haditha road to the west of Bayji.
In Diyala, low-level IEDs and shoots predominated, principally clustered around Baqubah and Muqdadiyah. The commander of Dijla Operations Command, Lieutenant General Mazhar al-Azzawi, reported launching a joint clearance operation in the Sinsil basin, north of Muqdadiyah. The rural area provides a haven for militants; with concern growing in the province that IS militants will relocate from Mosul and Hawija to rural Diyala to reconstitute insurgent networks. The operation has so far destroyed an IED manufacturing facility as well as uncovering caches, hospices and boats used by militants.
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Anbar Province
Activity in Anbar this week was mostly IED related, and occurred predominantly along the Euphrates River Valley. There were three VBIED interceptions in Hit, west of Ramadi and al-Baghdadi district, although all were dealt with by ISF without incident. On May 11, close to the provincial border with Karbala, ISF announced killing two suicide attackers and destroying a VBIED. The militants were reported to be attempting to infiltrate the Razzazza area.
On May 11, Anbar operations commander Major General Mahmoud al-Falahi announced the launch of a joint clearance operation by ISF and Sunni tribal fighters, and supported by air assets, in the desert south of Rutbah district. The following day it was announced three VBIEDs were destroyed and dozens of militants killed during the operation. Weapon and ammunition caches were also discovered.
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Capital Region (Baghdad City)
Reporting in Baghdad was dominated by a VBIED detonation in Shula, in the northwest of the city. The device was parked by the side of a road and killed four people and injured 10. This was the first high-profile attack in the city since an SVBIED attack against Traffic Police in Abu Nawas on 28 April. The attack targeted a predominantly Shia neighbourhood, and coincided with the Shia religious festival of Shaabaniya.
Other activity related to the typical low-level IED attacks and SAF incidents which emanate mostly from disputes or criminal endeavours. One of the more serious IED incidents involved an IED explosion near shops in the Suwaib area of West Rashid, which killed one person and injured four.
The kidnapping of local nationals for financial gain also continues to be one of the more prevalent security concerns in the city. Occasionally, there will be kidnaps for political reasons and for intimidation. This week, unidentified gunmen briefly abducted seven undergraduate students from an apartment in the al-Batawuyeen residential complex in Rusafa, central Baghdad, during the night of May 7/8. The victims were all reportedly members of the Communist Party, and participated regularly in the Friday Demonstrations in al-Tahrir square. Following much media coverage and backlash, the group was released on May 9.
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Central Region (Baghdad Belts)
There were the typical instances of low-level IED incidents in the wider province during the reporting period.
Devices targeted civilians near shops in Abu Ghraib to the west, south Rashid to the south and Nahrawan to the east. None of these devices caused fatalities, with casualties ranging from two to five injured. In Zaidan in the extreme west of Baghdad province, a civilian employed by the ministry of Education was killed when an UVIED detonated beneath his car whilst transiting the area.
To the north, recent ISF operations appear to have lessened militant activity, although a cache find including two suicide vests in the district highlight that these operations are likely to have a short-term effect, and militants will look to revert to higher levels of activity as soon as they are able. There were two SAF attacks targeting ISF in the district, one which injured two policemen and another that killed a PMC member.
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Southern Provinces
Most reporting from the south related to low-level violence associated with criminality and personal or tribal disputes. May 11 marked the Shia religious festival of Sha’baniyah, which passed without major incident.
In Basra, recent tribal fighting continues to be a key political issue in the province. Tribal fighting has also pressurised the Basra Operations Commander Lieutenant General Jamil al-Shimmari to announce another illegal weapons amnesty prior to another series of cordon and search operations in an attempt to stymy tribal conflicts. There was further tribal fighting in Timiniyah this week, albeit much less significant than the clashes of May 4/5, although perpetrated by the same tribe (the Beit Rueme) that were involved on May 4/5. Other incidents included the usual use of small IEDs or grenades as a means of intimidation, and a number of SAF incidents related to disputes.
The only fatal incident recorded outside Basra in the south this week involved the death of a five year-old boy and injury of two others, when a rifle was dropped on the ground during celebratory fire at a wedding party in al- Nasr, northern Dhi Qar.
In Maysan, Rafidain Operations Command announced that a 10 day operation to apprehend wanted individuals, confiscate illegal weapons and establish security in the province had resulted in 188 arrests. A significant amount of weapons and munitions had also been seized, including 42 rifles, a BKC machinegun, 12 RPG launchers as well as various mines and explosives. The only incident of note in Babel Province involved an IED detonation in the Khidhir area of Mahawil, that injured an ISF member.